Morton v Ayr Utd prediction · Championship

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Close to call, with Ayr Utd just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Morton 34%, draw 30%, Ayr Utd 36%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Morton v Ayr UtdBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Morton win34%

Draw30%

Ayr Utd win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueCappielow Park

RefereeK. Clancy

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Morton

Ayr Utd

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish Championship

Last match: 16 Oct · the Scottish Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Ayr Utd	11	−2	12
9	Morton	11	−9	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ayr utd winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

36% The market43%

Us36%

~~Market~~43%

We make Ayr Utd a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Morton v Ayr Utd~~1.22 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 12~~9 v 7

~~The market · Ayr Utd win~~43% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ayr Utd win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Morton win	34%	29%	+5
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Ayr Utd win	36%	43%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	45%	48%	−3
Both teams to score	51%	53%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	72%	72%	0
Over 3.5 goals	24%	28%	−4
Morton or draw	64%	57%	+7
Morton clean sheet	29%	–	–
Ayr Utd clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 10.2 9.0 6.6 2.8 1 8.7 14.2 7.9 3.4 2 6.3 7.7 4.8 2.0 3 2.6 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Morton down, Ayr Utd across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 984 Championship matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.8% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Morton at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ayr Utd away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Morton, 1.26 for Ayr Utd. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AYR 1–1 MOR · AYR 0–1 MOR · MOR 1–1 AYR · AYR 2–1 MOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 11 Sept

MORTON

LLLLWW1–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0

AYR UTD

LWLWDL1–3 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stenhousemuir	10	+8	23
2	Partick	11	+8	22
3	Raith Rovers	11	+9	21
4	Inverness CT	11	+3	16
5	Dunfermline	10	+2	15
6	Livingston	11	+3	14
7	Ayr Utd	11	−2	12
8	Arbroath	11	−10	11
9	Morton	11	−9	7
10	Queen's Park	11	−12	7