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Livingston v Partick

Livingston

1–2Full time

Partick

Championship · SAT 10 OCT · The Home of the Set Fare Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Livingston 1–2 Partick LIVINGSTON WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Livingston win~~42%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.803

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.694

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Livingston win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Livingston v Partick
4′Much as we predicted: Livingston was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–29–28
12′SUBSTITUTION · 10' Livingston · On: J. Wilkie · Off: C. Montano
16′17′ and it is 0–0: P. Reading on the scoresheet for Partick. 0–0 · 41–32–27
16′⚽ GOAL · 17' Livingston 0–0 Partick · P. Reading (assist S. Drozd)
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Livingston 0–1 Partick · P. Reading
22′We said Livingston at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–25–60
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Livingston win: 42% at kick-off, 15% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Partick win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Livingston win 15%)
25′We said Livingston at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Livingston 1–1 Partick · B. van Hoeven (assist J. Wilkie)
45′SECOND HALF Livingston 1–1 Partick
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Livingston
53′🟨 YELLOW · 50' B. Anderson · Livingston
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' S. Drozd · Partick
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Partick · On: T. Watt · Off: A. Samuel
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Livingston 1–2 Partick
66′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Partick
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' A. Fitzpatrick · Partick
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Partick
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Livingston · On: G. Carey · Off: B. van Hoeven
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Livingston · On: G. Carey · Off: B. van Hoeven
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Livingston · On: G. Carey · Off: B. van Hoeven
75′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Livingston · On: G. Carey · Off: B. van Hoeven
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Partick · On: T. Letsosa · Off: R. Crawford
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Partick · On: E. Ingram · Off: S. Drozd
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Livingston · On: S. May · Off: T. Sinclair
FTFULL TIME Livingston 1–2 Partick
FTLivingston 1–2 Partick · Livingston win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Livingston win42%

Draw31%

Partick win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · The Home of the Set Fare Arena

Referee · C. Scott

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Livingston

Formation not confirmed

28 J. Prior

22 J. Doherty

23 B. Kabongolo

5 R. McGowan

26 C. Montano

20 E. Danso

8 S. Pittman

7 T. Sinclair

9 R. Muirhead

19 B. van Hoeven

25 B. Anderson

Coach · David Martindale

Substitutes

14 · J. Hamilton

30 · S. Blaney

21 · B. Iseni

4 · J. Wilkie

6 · A. Denholm

16 · C. Palmer

39 · L. Polworth

27 · G. Carey

17 · S. May

Partick

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Budinauckas

24 B. McPherson

5 L. Ashcroft

22 C. Loughrey

3 P. Reading

6 B. Dempsey

14 R. Crawford

7 S. Drozd

26 B. Stanway

10 E. Henderson

9 A. Samuel

Coach · –

Substitutes

27 · C. Storey

17 · E. Ingram

2 · C. Logan

20 · D. O'Reilly

34 · S. Docherty

21 · A. Fitzpatrick

64 · T. Letsosa

11 · G. Mackay-Steven

32 · T. Watt

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Livingston

Formation not confirmed

28 J. Prior

22 J. Doherty

23 B. Kabongolo

5 R. McGowan

26 C. Montano

20 E. Danso

8 S. Pittman

7 T. Sinclair

9 R. Muirhead

19 B. van Hoeven

25 B. Anderson

Coach · David Martindale

Substitutes

14 · J. Hamilton

30 · S. Blaney

21 · B. Iseni

4 · J. Wilkie

6 · A. Denholm

16 · C. Palmer

39 · L. Polworth

27 · G. Carey

17 · S. May

Partick

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Budinauckas

24 B. McPherson

5 L. Ashcroft

22 C. Loughrey

3 P. Reading

6 B. Dempsey

14 R. Crawford

7 S. Drozd

26 B. Stanway

10 E. Henderson

9 A. Samuel

Coach · –

Substitutes

27 · C. Storey

17 · E. Ingram

2 · C. Logan

20 · D. O'Reilly

34 · S. Docherty

21 · A. Fitzpatrick

64 · T. Letsosa

11 · G. Mackay-Steven

32 · T. Watt

Our number · livingston winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

42% The market40%

Us42%

~~Market~~40%

We make Livingston a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Livingston win	42%	40%	+2
Draw	31%	28%	+3
Partick win	27%	32%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	39%	52%	−13
Both teams to score	46%	57%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	67%	76%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	19%	32%	−12
Livingston or draw	73%	68%	+5
Livingston clean sheet	38%	–	–
Partick clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 12.2 8.8 5.0 1 11.9 14.3 6.3 2.1 2 8.5 8.2 4.0 3 3.7 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Livingston down, Partick across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 972 Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 28.6% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 1.40 goals a meeting; 0 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Livingston at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Partick away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Livingston, 0.98 for Partick. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~PAR 2–0 LIV · LIV 0–1 PAR · PAR 1–1 LIV · LIV 2–0 PAR

Form · last six in Championship

LIVINGSTON

LLWDWL0–1 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–2

PARTICK

DDWLDW1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stenhousemuir	8	+10	22
2	Raith Rovers	9	+7	17
3	Partick	8	+6	15
4	Livingston	9	+4	13
5	Dunfermline	7	+2	12
6	Ayr Utd	9	−1	11
7	Arbroath	9	−7	11
8	Inverness CT	8	0	10
9	Queen's Park	8	−9	4
10	Morton	9	−12	1