Livingston v Arbroath

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Livingston win at 58%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Livingston 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–26–15
3. 1′KICK-OFF Livingston v Arbroath
4. 3′🟨 YELLOW · 2' Livingston
5. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Livingston win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
6. 41′We said Livingston at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 0–0 · 46–38–16
7. 45′HALF-TIME Livingston 0–0 Arbroath
8. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Livingston win: 58% at kick-off, 45% now
9. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Livingston win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Draw 48%)
10. 45′SECOND HALF Livingston 0–0 Arbroath
11. 46′We said Livingston at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–40–15
12. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Arbroath
13. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Livingston win 43%)
14. 55′We said Livingston at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–46–14
15. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 39–46–14
16. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Livingston · On: A. Denholm · Off: E. Danso
17. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Arbroath
18. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Livingston win: 58% at kick-off, 38% now
19. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Livingston · On: B. Anderson · Off: T. Sinclair
20. 62′We said Livingston at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–52–13
21. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Arbroath
22. 68′We said Livingston at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–59–12
23. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Livingston win: 58% at kick-off, 28% now
24. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Livingston · On: S. May · Off: S. Nicholson
25. 73′We said Livingston at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–66–10
26. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Livingston · On: B. van Hoeven · Off: L. Polworth
27. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Arbroath · On: A. Winter · Off: T. O'Brien
28. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Arbroath
29. 78′We said Livingston at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–73–8
30. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Livingston win: 58% at kick-off, 17% now
31. 82′We said Livingston at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–81–6
32. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Arbroath · On: C. Daly · Off: G. Reilly
33. 86′We said Livingston at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–87–4
34. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Livingston win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
35. 90′1–0 at the end. Our 58% on Livingston comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
36. 90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Arbroath
37. 91′Arbroath are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 5–93–2 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
38. 91′We said Livingston at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 1–0 · 98–2–0
39. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Livingston 1–0 Arbroath
40. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Livingston win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
41. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Livingston win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 93%)
42. 92′Livingston find the net on 90′. 1–0. 1–0 · 98–2–0
43. FTFULL TIME Livingston 1–0 Arbroath
44. FTLivingston 1–0 Arbroath · Livingston win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.