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Inverness CT v Stenhousemuir

Inverness CT

2–0Full time

Stenhousemuir

Championship · SAT 10 OCT · Tulloch Caledonian Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Inverness CT 2–0 Stenhousemuir STENHOUSEMUIR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stenhousemuir win~~36%

~~The market said~~22%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.689

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.364

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stenhousemuir win at 36%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Stenhousemuir 36% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 34–29–37
2′KICK-OFF Inverness CT v Stenhousemuir
28′A. Mackinnon scores for Inverness CT on 26′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 67–23–11
30′A. Mackinnon scores for Inverness CT on 26′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 67–23–10
30′⚽ GOAL · 26' Inverness CT 1–0 Stenhousemuir · A. Mackinnon (assist L. Sole)
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Stenhousemuir win: 36% at kick-off, 10% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Inverness CT win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Stenhousemuir win 10%)
36′35′ and it is 2–0: R. Savage on the scoresheet for Inverness CT. 2–0 · 91–7–2
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Inverness CT 2–0 Stenhousemuir
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Stenhousemuir win: 36% at kick-off, 2% now
39′We said Stenhousemuir at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Stenhousemuir
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Stenhousemuir
45′HALF-TIME Inverness CT 2–0 Stenhousemuir
47′SECOND HALF Inverness CT 2–0 Stenhousemuir
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Inverness CT
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Stenhousemuir · On: H. Kargbo · Off: G. Stevenson
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Stenhousemuir · On: E. O'Reilly · Off: L. Grant
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Inverness CT
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Inverness CT · On: R. MacGregor · Off: A. Stewart
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Inverness CT · On: R. Duncan · Off: L. Sole
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Inverness CT · On: R. MacGregor · Off: A. Stewart
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Inverness CT · On: R. Duncan · Off: L. Sole
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Stenhousemuir
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' M. Anderson · Stenhousemuir
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Stenhousemuir · On: L. Hodgkiss · Off: A. Shinnie
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Inverness CT · On: A. Bavidge · Off: L. Stewart
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Stenhousemuir · On: D. Carrick · Off: K. Bilham
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Stenhousemuir · On: M. Thomson · Off: L. Lloyd
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Stenhousemuir
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' H. Kargbo · Stenhousemuir
FTFULL TIME Inverness CT 2–0 Stenhousemuir
FTInverness CT 2–0 Stenhousemuir · Stenhousemuir win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Inverness CT win32%

Draw32%

Stenhousemuir win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Tulloch Caledonian Stadium

Referee · C. Steven

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Inverness CT

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Munro

2 C. MacLeod

15 K. Smith

5 R. Savage

4 G. Shinnie

8 A. Mackinnon

7 P. Allan

17 L. Sole

35 A. Stewart

11 L. Longstaff

9 L. Stewart

Coach · Scott Kellacher

Substitutes

21 · L. Ross

3 · N. Boutin

10 · D. Wotherspoon

12 · D. MacKay

16 · R. Duncan

19 · M. Bates

20 · D. E. Osong

26 · R. MacGregor

36 · A. Bavidge

Stenhousemuir

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Jamieson

24 L. Grant

5 S. Young

19 S. Bright

2 R. Meechan

17 M. Anderson

39 M. Gillies

14 K. Bilham

20 G. Stevenson

10 A. Shinnie

36 L. Lloyd

Coach · Marvin Bartley

Substitutes

34 · R. Hemfrey

4 · G. Buchanan

7 · E. O'Reilly

8 · F. Robson

15 · D. Carrick

21 · L. Hodgkiss

22 · H. Kargbo

37 · O. MacIntyre

29 · M. Thomson

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Inverness CT

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Munro

2 C. MacLeod

15 K. Smith

5 R. Savage

4 G. Shinnie

8 A. Mackinnon

7 P. Allan

17 L. Sole

35 A. Stewart

11 L. Longstaff

9 L. Stewart

Coach · Scott Kellacher

Substitutes

21 · L. Ross

3 · N. Boutin

10 · D. Wotherspoon

12 · D. MacKay

16 · R. Duncan

19 · M. Bates

20 · D. E. Osong

26 · R. MacGregor

36 · A. Bavidge

Stenhousemuir

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Jamieson

24 L. Grant

5 S. Young

19 S. Bright

2 R. Meechan

17 M. Anderson

39 M. Gillies

14 K. Bilham

20 G. Stevenson

10 A. Shinnie

36 L. Lloyd

Coach · Marvin Bartley

Substitutes

34 · R. Hemfrey

4 · G. Buchanan

7 · E. O'Reilly

8 · F. Robson

15 · D. Carrick

21 · L. Hodgkiss

22 · H. Kargbo

37 · O. MacIntyre

29 · M. Thomson

Our number · stenhousemuir winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

36% The market22%

Us36%

~~Market~~22%

We make Stenhousemuir a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 22%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · stenhousemuir win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 21% to 22% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Inverness CT win	32%	51%	−19
Draw	32%	27%	+5
Stenhousemuir win	36%	22%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	38%	46%	−8
Both teams to score	46%	49%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	66%	70%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	19%	26%	−7
Inverness CT or draw	64%	78%	−14
Inverness CT clean sheet	32%	–	–
Stenhousemuir clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.5%

0123450 12.7 11.0 7.1 2.8 1 10.2 14.5 7.4 2.9 2 6.3 7.0 4.0 3 2.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Inverness CT down, Stenhousemuir across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 972 Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 28.6% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Inverness CT at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Stenhousemuir away: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Inverness CT, 1.15 for Stenhousemuir. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~STE 3–1 INV

Form · last six in Championship

INVERNESS CT

DLLWDW1–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–0

STENHOUSEMUIR

WWWWWW2–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stenhousemuir	8	+10	22
2	Raith Rovers	9	+7	17
3	Partick	8	+6	15
4	Livingston	9	+4	13
5	Dunfermline	7	+2	12
6	Ayr Utd	9	−1	11
7	Arbroath	9	−7	11
8	Inverness CT	8	0	10
9	Queen's Park	8	−9	4
10	Morton	9	−12	1