Inverness CT v Arbroath prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Inverness CT 2–0 Arbroath INVERNESS CT WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Inverness CT win~~51%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.369

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.217

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Inverness CT win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Inverness CT was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–28–21
1′KICK-OFF Inverness CT v Arbroath
8′Much as we predicted: Inverness CT was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–30–21
38′We published Inverness CT at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Inverness CT 1–0 Arbroath
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Inverness CT win: 51% at kick-off, 80% now
39′Inverness CT find the net on 39′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–15–5
39′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 80–15–5
43′A goal for Inverness CT on 42′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
43′We published Inverness CT at 51%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Inverness CT 2–0 Arbroath
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Inverness CT win: 51% at kick-off, 96% now
45′HALF-TIME Inverness CT 2–0 Arbroath
45′SECOND HALF Inverness CT 2–0 Arbroath
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45+1' Arbroath · On: C. Dewar · Off: T. Beadling
61′PENALTY MISSED · 60' Inverness CT
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Arbroath
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Arbroath · On: S. Stewart · Off: J. MacIntyre
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Inverness CT · On: R. Duncan · Off: L. Sole
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Inverness CT · On: D. E. Osong · Off: L. Stewart
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Inverness CT · On: R. MacGregor · Off: A. Mackinnon
79′We published Inverness CT at 51%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Arbroath · On: A. Winter · Off: G. Reilly
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Arbroath · On: C. Daly · Off: R. Dow
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Inverness CT · On: N. Boutin · Off: A. Bavidge
90′Full time, 2–0. We called Inverness CT at 51% — that one lands. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Inverness CT 2–0 Arbroath
FTInverness CT 2–0 Arbroath · Inverness CT win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Inverness CT are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Inverness CT 51%, draw 28%, Arbroath 21%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Inverness CT v ArbroathBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Inverness CT win51%

Draw28%

Arbroath win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueTulloch Caledonian Stadium

RefereeS. Murdoch

Line-ups

Inverness CT

Arbroath

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Inverness CT

Arbroath

4Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · the Scottish Championship

Last match: 10 Oct · the Scottish Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Inverness CT	10	+1	13
8	Arbroath	10	−8	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Inverness CT

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Munro

4 G. Shinnie

5 R. Savage

6 D. Devine

2 C. MacLeod

7 P. Allan

8 A. Mackinnon

17 L. Sole

35 A. Stewart

9 L. Stewart

36 A. Bavidge

Coach · Scott Kellacher

Substitutes

21 · L. Ross

3 · N. Boutin

10 · D. Wotherspoon

12 · D. MacKay

15 · K. Smith

16 · R. Duncan

19 · M. Bates

20 · D. E. Osong

26 · R. MacGregor

Arbroath

Formation not confirmed

1 A. McAdams

4 B. Paterson

5 T. O'Brien

6 T. Beadling

16 C. Watson

8 R. Flynn

17 D. Reid

25 J. MacIntyre

14 M. McKenna

11 R. Dow

10 G. Reilly

Coach · David Gold

Substitutes

21 · J. Pettigrew

3 · C. Hamilton

7 · D. Gold

12 · S. Stewart

19 · C. Daly

22 · C. Dewar

9 · A. Winter

Our number · inverness ct winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market62%

Us51%

~~Market~~62%

We make Inverness CT a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Inverness CT v Arbroath~~1.54 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 13 v 11~~6 v 8

~~The market · Inverness CT win~~62% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Inverness CT win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Inverness CT win	51%	62%	−11
Draw	28%	23%	+5
Arbroath win	21%	15%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	44%	50%	−6
Both teams to score	48%	47%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	73%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	29%	−6
Inverness CT or draw	79%	85%	−6
Inverness CT clean sheet	41%	–	–
Arbroath clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.3 6.6 3.6 1 12.0 13.2 5.4 2 10.2 9.0 4.1 3 5.3 4.7 2.1 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Inverness CT down, Arbroath across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 979 Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.6% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Inverness CT at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Arbroath away: 0.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Inverness CT, 0.91 for Arbroath. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ARB 0–0 INV · INV 3–0 ARB · ARB 3–0 INV · INV 0–2 ARB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept

INVERNESS CT

LWDWWL0–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

ARBROATH

DLLWLL1–1 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stenhousemuir	9	+8	22
2	Partick	10	+8	21
3	Raith Rovers	10	+9	20
4	Livingston	10	+3	13
5	Dunfermline	8	+2	13
6	Inverness CT	10	+1	13
7	Ayr Utd	11	−2	12
8	Arbroath	10	−8	11
9	Queen's Park	10	−10	7
10	Morton	10	−11	4