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Model 1.2

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Dunfermline v Partick

Dunfermline
1–1Full time
Partick

Championship · TUE 20 OCT · East End Park

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30
Dunfermline 1–1 Partick PARTICK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Partick win36%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.672
The market’s Brier score0.763

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Partick win at 36%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Partick 36% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 31–33–35
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Dunfermline v Partick
  4. 14′Partick find the net on 14′. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–20–70
  5. 14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Dunfermline 0–1 Partick
  6. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Partick win: 36% at kick-off, 70% now
  7. 15′Partick ahead on 13′ through T. Watt. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–20–70
  8. 15′We said Partick at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 11–20–70
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 8–20–72
  10. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Dunfermline 1–1 Partick
  11. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Partick win: 36% at kick-off, 29% now
  12. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Partick win 74%)
  13. 42′A goal for Dunfermline on 41′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 26–45–29
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Dunfermline 1–1 Partick
  15. 45′SECOND HALF Dunfermline 1–1 Partick
  16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Partick · On: D. O'Reilly · Off: C. Loughrey
  17. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Partick win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
  18. 57′We said Partick at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 22–54–24
  19. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Partick · On: S. Drozd · Off: G. Mackay-Steven
  20. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Partick
  21. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Partick · On: A. Samuel · Off: B. Stanway
  22. 67′We said Partick at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 18–63–19
  23. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Dunfermline · On: O. Thomas · Off: K. Bray
  24. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Dunfermline · On: J. Cooper · Off: R. MacLeod
  25. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Partick win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
  26. 75′We said Partick at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 13–73–14
  27. 81′We said Partick at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–9
  28. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Partick · On: E. Henderson · Off: T. Watt
  29. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Partick · On: R. Crawford · Off: O. Smyth
  30. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Dunfermline
  31. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Dunfermline · On: C. Morrison · Off: A. Amade
  32. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Partick win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
  33. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Dunfermline · On: C. Gilmour · Off: O. Adams
  34. 89′We said Partick at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
  35. 90′1–1 at the end. Our 36% on Partick misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  36. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Dunfermline · On: O. Shaw · Off: A. Oyirwoth
  37. FTFULL TIME Dunfermline 1–1 Partick
  38. FTDunfermline 1–1 Partick · Partick win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Partick just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Dunfermline 31%, draw 33%, Partick 36%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Dunfermline v PartickBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Dunfermline win31%
Draw33%
Partick win36%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 8

VenueEast End Park

RefereeP. Stuart

Line-ups

Dunfermline

Partick

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dunfermline

Partick

3Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish Championship

Last match: 16 Oct · the Scottish Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Partick10+821
6Dunfermline9+214

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dunfermline

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Oxborough

24 D. Lobban

25 A. Donnelly

6 N. Abdulai

47 R. Fraser

22 K. Bray

19 A. Oyirwoth

14 A. Amade

16 R. MacLeod

99 O. Adams

26 A. Tod

Coach · Neil Lennon

Substitutes

12 · M. Dibaga

3 · J. Tod

7 · C. Morrison

8 · C. Gilmour

10 · O. Shaw

11 · S. Kearney

17 · O. Thomas

18 · K. Corbally

33 · J. Cooper

Partick

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Budinauckas

24 B. McPherson

5 L. Ashcroft

22 C. Loughrey

3 P. Reading

8 O. Smyth

6 B. Dempsey

11 G. Mackay-Steven

26 B. Stanway

21 A. Fitzpatrick

32 T. Watt

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · L. McFarlane

2 · C. Logan

7 · S. Drozd

9 · A. Samuel

10 · E. Henderson

14 · R. Crawford

17 · E. Ingram

20 · D. O'Reilly

64 · T. Letsosa

Our number · partick winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
36% The market38%
Us36%
Market38%

We make Partick a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Dunfermline v Partick1.01 – 1.09
Form · last six in Championship this season · since 28 AugW3 D3 L0 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 14 v 216 v 3
The market · Partick win38% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 19:12
Our probability · Partick win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Dunfermline win31%33%−2
Draw33%29%+4
Partick win36%38%−2
Over 2.5 goals35%48%−13
Both teams to score43%54%−11
Over 1.5 goals63%72%−9
Over 3.5 goals16%28%−12
Dunfermline or draw64%62%+2
Dunfermline clean sheet34%––
Partick clean sheet37%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.8%
0123450 14.1 11.8 7.3 2.7 1 10.8 14.8 7.2 2.6 2 6.2 6.7 3.6 3 2.1 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Dunfermline down, Partick across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.10
Over 2.53 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsPAR 2–1 DUN · DUN 1–1 PAR · PAR 2–0 DUN · DUN 2–2 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 28 Aug

DUNFERMLINE

WDWWDD1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

PARTICK

WLDWWW1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Stenhousemuir10+823
2Raith Rovers11+921
3Partick10+821
4Inverness CT11+316
5Livingston11+314
6Dunfermline9+214
7Ayr Utd11−212
8Arbroath11−1011
9Morton11−97
10Queen's Park11−127

The competition's standings before kick-off.