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Model 1.2

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Dunfermline v Livingston

Dunfermline
0–0Full time
Livingston

Championship · SAT 17 OCT · East End Park

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Dunfermline 0–0 Livingston LIVINGSTON WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Livingston win37%
The market said35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.700
The market’s Brier score0.789

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Livingston win at 37%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Livingston 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 31–32–37
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Dunfermline v Livingston
  4. 3′🟨 YELLOW · 2' Dunfermline
  5. 7′Little has changed for our model: Livingston 37% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 31–33–36
  6. 12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Livingston
  7. 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Livingston win 33%)
  8. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Livingston
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Dunfermline 0–0 Livingston
  10. 45′SECOND HALF Dunfermline 0–0 Livingston
  11. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Livingston · On: T. Sinclair · Off: B. van Hoeven
  12. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Livingston win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
  13. 57′We said Livingston at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 0–0 · 22–52–25
  14. 59′We said Livingston at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 21–54–24
  15. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Livingston · On: B. Anderson · Off: G. Carey
  16. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Livingston
  17. 69′We said Livingston at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–64–19
  18. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dunfermline · On: O. Shaw · Off: J. Cooper
  19. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dunfermline · On: K. Corbally · Off: R. MacLeod
  20. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Livingston win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
  21. 76′We said Livingston at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–73–14
  22. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Dunfermline · On: C. Morrison · Off: K. Bray
  23. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Dunfermline · On: O. Thomas · Off: O. Adams
  24. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Livingston · On: A. Denholm · Off: C. Palmer
  25. 82′We said Livingston at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–83–9
  26. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Livingston
  27. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Livingston win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
  28. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Dunfermline · On: A. Donnelly · Off: S. Cleall-Harding
  29. 89′We said Livingston at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
  30. 90′0–0 at the end. Our 37% on Livingston misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  31. FTFULL TIME Dunfermline 0–0 Livingston
  32. FTDunfermline 0–0 Livingston · Livingston win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Livingston are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dunfermline 31%, draw 32%, Livingston 37%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Dunfermline v LivingstonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dunfermline win31%
Draw32%
Livingston win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueEast End Park

RefereeC. Graham

Line-ups

Dunfermline

Livingston

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dunfermline

Livingston

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Scottish Championship

Last match: 10 Oct · the Scottish Championship

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Livingston10+313
5Dunfermline8+213

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dunfermline

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Oxborough

24 D. Lobban

15 S. Cleall-Harding

6 N. Abdulai

47 R. Fraser

22 K. Bray

14 A. Amade

33 J. Cooper

16 R. MacLeod

99 O. Adams

26 A. Tod

Coach · Neil Lennon

Substitutes

12 · M. Dibaga

3 · J. Tod

7 · C. Morrison

8 · C. Gilmour

10 · O. Shaw

11 · S. Kearney

17 · O. Thomas

18 · K. Corbally

25 · A. Donnelly

Livingston

Formation not confirmed

28 J. Prior

22 J. Doherty

23 B. Kabongolo

5 R. McGowan

4 J. Wilkie

8 S. Pittman

20 E. Danso

16 C. Palmer

27 G. Carey

9 R. Muirhead

19 B. van Hoeven

Coach · David Martindale

Substitutes

14 · J. Hamilton

6 · A. Denholm

7 · T. Sinclair

10 · S. Nicholson

17 · S. May

21 · B. Iseni

25 · B. Anderson

30 · S. Blaney

39 · L. Polworth

Our number · livingston winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
37% The market35%
Us37%
Market35%

We make Livingston a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Dunfermline v Livingston1.05 – 1.17
Form · last six in Championship this season · since 22 AugW3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 13 v 135 v 4
The market · Livingston win35% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 14:14
Our probability · Livingston win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Dunfermline win31%37%−6
Draw32%27%+5
Livingston win37%35%+2
Over 2.5 goals38%53%−15
Both teams to score46%58%−12
Over 1.5 goals66%75%−9
Over 3.5 goals19%33%−14
Dunfermline or draw63%65%−2
Dunfermline clean sheet32%––
Livingston clean sheet36%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.5%
0123450 12.7 11.3 7.5 3.0 1 10.0 14.5 7.6 3.0 2 6.0 6.8 4.0 3 2.1 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Dunfermline down, Livingston across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.57
Over 2.51 of 7
Both scored0 of 7
Last meetingsLIV 2–0 DUN · DUN 1–0 LIV · LIV 0–0 DUN · DUN 0–2 LIV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 22 Aug

DUNFERMLINE

LWDWWD0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

LIVINGSTON

LWDWLL0–1 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Stenhousemuir9+822
2Partick10+821
3Raith Rovers10+920
4Livingston10+313
5Dunfermline8+213
6Inverness CT10+113
7Ayr Utd11−212
8Arbroath10−811
9Queen's Park10−107
10Morton10−114

The competition's standings before kick-off.