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Dunfermline v Livingston
Dunfermline
LivingstonChampionship · SAT 17 OCT · East End Park
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Livingston win at 37%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Livingston 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 31–32–37
- 1′KICK-OFF Dunfermline v Livingston
- 3′🟨 YELLOW · 2' Dunfermline
- 7′Little has changed for our model: Livingston 37% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 31–33–36
- 12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Livingston
- 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Livingston win 33%)
- 44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Livingston
- 45′HALF-TIME Dunfermline 0–0 Livingston
- 45′SECOND HALF Dunfermline 0–0 Livingston
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Livingston · On: T. Sinclair · Off: B. van Hoeven
- 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Livingston win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
- 57′We said Livingston at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 0–0 · 22–52–25
- 59′We said Livingston at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 21–54–24
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Livingston · On: B. Anderson · Off: G. Carey
- 65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Livingston
- 69′We said Livingston at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–64–19
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dunfermline · On: O. Shaw · Off: J. Cooper
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dunfermline · On: K. Corbally · Off: R. MacLeod
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Livingston win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
- 76′We said Livingston at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–73–14
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Dunfermline · On: C. Morrison · Off: K. Bray
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Dunfermline · On: O. Thomas · Off: O. Adams
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Livingston · On: A. Denholm · Off: C. Palmer
- 82′We said Livingston at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–83–9
- 83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Livingston
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Livingston win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Dunfermline · On: A. Donnelly · Off: S. Cleall-Harding
- 89′We said Livingston at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
- 90′0–0 at the end. Our 37% on Livingston misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
- FTFULL TIME Dunfermline 0–0 Livingston
- FTDunfermline 0–0 Livingston · Livingston win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassLivingston are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Dunfermline 31%, draw 32%, Livingston 37%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 46%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Dunfermline win31%
Livingston win37%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 11
VenueEast End Park
RefereeC. Graham
Match timeline
All events
DunfermlineMIN
LivingstonEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Dunfermline
Livingston
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Dunfermline
Livingston
Last match: 10 Oct · the Scottish Championship
Last match: 10 Oct · the Scottish Championship
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Dunfermline
Formation not confirmed
1 A. Oxborough
24 D. Lobban
15 S. Cleall-Harding
6 N. Abdulai
47 R. Fraser
22 K. Bray
14 A. Amade
33 J. Cooper
16 R. MacLeod
99 O. Adams
26 A. Tod
Coach · Neil Lennon
Substitutes
12 · M. Dibaga
3 · J. Tod
7 · C. Morrison
8 · C. Gilmour
10 · O. Shaw
11 · S. Kearney
17 · O. Thomas
18 · K. Corbally
25 · A. Donnelly
Livingston
Formation not confirmed
28 J. Prior
22 J. Doherty
23 B. Kabongolo
5 R. McGowan
4 J. Wilkie
8 S. Pittman
20 E. Danso
16 C. Palmer
27 G. Carey
9 R. Muirhead
19 B. van Hoeven
Coach · David Martindale
Substitutes
14 · J. Hamilton
6 · A. Denholm
7 · T. Sinclair
10 · S. Nicholson
17 · S. May
21 · B. Iseni
25 · B. Anderson
30 · S. Blaney
39 · L. Polworth
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Dunfermline
Formation not confirmed
1 A. Oxborough
24 D. Lobban
15 S. Cleall-Harding
6 N. Abdulai
47 R. Fraser
22 K. Bray
14 A. Amade
33 J. Cooper
16 R. MacLeod
99 O. Adams
26 A. Tod
Coach · Neil Lennon
Substitutes
12 · M. Dibaga
3 · J. Tod
7 · C. Morrison
8 · C. Gilmour
10 · O. Shaw
11 · S. Kearney
17 · O. Thomas
18 · K. Corbally
25 · A. Donnelly
Livingston
Formation not confirmed
28 J. Prior
22 J. Doherty
23 B. Kabongolo
5 R. McGowan
4 J. Wilkie
8 S. Pittman
20 E. Danso
16 C. Palmer
27 G. Carey
9 R. Muirhead
19 B. van Hoeven
Coach · David Martindale
Substitutes
14 · J. Hamilton
6 · A. Denholm
7 · T. Sinclair
10 · S. Nicholson
17 · S. May
21 · B. Iseni
25 · B. Anderson
30 · S. Blaney
39 · L. Polworth
We make Livingston a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dunfermline win | 31% | 37% | −6 |
| Draw | 32% | 27% | +5 |
| Livingston win | 37% | 35% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 53% | −15 |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 58% | −12 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | 75% | −9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 33% | −14 |
| Dunfermline or draw | 63% | 65% | −2 |
| Dunfermline clean sheet | 32% | – | – |
| Livingston clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
7 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Championship this season · since 22 Aug
DUNFERMLINE
LIVINGSTON
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 9 | +8 | 22 |
| 2 | Partick | 10 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 4 | Livingston | 10 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 6 | Inverness CT | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | −2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 10 | −8 | 11 |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 10 | −10 | 7 |
| 10 | Morton | 10 | −11 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Stenhousemuir
Partick
Raith Rovers
Inverness CT
Ayr Utd
Arbroath
Queen's Park
Morton