Dunfermline v Inverness CT prediction · Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

DunfermlineDrawInverness CT

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Dunfermline 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Dunfermline just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Dunfermline 36%, draw 33%, Inverness CT 32%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Dunfermline v Inverness CTBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Dunfermline win36%

Draw33%

Inverness CT win32%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueEast End Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dunfermline

Inverness CT

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Scottish Championship

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Inverness CT	12	+5	19
5	Dunfermline	11	+3	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dunfermline winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Dunfermline a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dunfermline v Inverness CT~~1.11 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 19~~5 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dunfermline win	36%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Inverness CT win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Dunfermline or draw	68%	–	–
Dunfermline clean sheet	36%	–	–
Inverness CT clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.7%

0123450 13.7 10.7 6.2 2.2 1 11.6 14.7 6.8 2.4 2 7.2 7.3 3.7 3 2.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dunfermline down, Inverness CT across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 988 Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.44 goals a meeting; 1 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dunfermline at home: 0.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Inverness CT away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Dunfermline, 1.03 for Inverness CT. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.44

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~INV 0–0 DUN · DUN 1–1 INV · INV 0–0 DUN · DUN 1–1 INV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept

DUNFERMLINE

WWDDDW2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

INVERNESS CT

DWWLWW2–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Partick	12	+11	25
2	Stenhousemuir	11	+5	23
3	Raith Rovers	12	+7	21
4	Inverness CT	12	+5	19
5	Dunfermline	11	+3	18
6	Livingston	12	+4	17
7	Ayr Utd	11	−2	12
8	Arbroath	12	−11	11
9	Morton	11	−9	7
10	Queen's Park	12	−13	7