Ayr Utd v Queen's Park prediction · Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ayr UtdDrawQueen's Park

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ayr Utd 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ayr Utd are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ayr Utd 49%, draw 29%, Queen's Park 22%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Ayr Utd v Queen's ParkBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Ayr Utd win49%

Draw29%

Queen's Park win22%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueSomerset Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ayr Utd

Queen's Park

15Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · the Scottish Championship

Last match: 24 Oct · the Scottish Championship

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Ayr Utd	11	−2	12
10	Queen's Park	12	−13	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ayr utd winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Ayr Utd a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ayr Utd v Queen's Park~~1.51 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 12 v 7~~7 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ayr Utd win	49%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Queen's Park win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Ayr Utd or draw	78%	–	–
Ayr Utd clean sheet	39%	–	–
Queen's Park clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.1 6.8 3.9 1 11.5 13.4 5.7 2 9.7 9.1 4.3 3 4.9 4.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ayr Utd down, Queen's Park across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 988 Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ayr Utd at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Queen's Park away: 0.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Ayr Utd, 0.95 for Queen's Park. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~QUE 0–2 AYR · QUE 1–1 AYR · AYR 1–2 QUE · QUE 0–0 AYR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept

AYR UTD

LWLWDL1–3 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

QUEEN'S PARK

LLLWLL0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Partick	12	+11	25
2	Stenhousemuir	11	+5	23
3	Raith Rovers	12	+7	21
4	Inverness CT	12	+5	19
5	Dunfermline	11	+3	18
6	Livingston	12	+4	17
7	Ayr Utd	11	−2	12
8	Arbroath	12	−11	11
9	Morton	11	−9	7
10	Queen's Park	12	−13	7