Ayr Utd v Partick prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:01

Ayr Utd 0–1 Partick PARTICK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Partick win~~39%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.563

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.283

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Partick win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Partick was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 32–28–40
1′KICK-OFF Ayr Utd v Partick
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Partick
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Partick win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Ayr Utd 0–1 Partick
46′A goal for Partick on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–20–74
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Ayr Utd 0–1 Partick
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Partick win: 39% at kick-off, 74% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Partick win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ayr Utd · On: T. Hatton · Off: L. Dick
46′SECOND HALF Ayr Utd 0–1 Partick
47′We published Partick at 39%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 6–20–74
47′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 6–20–74
48′We published Partick at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Ayr Utd
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Partick
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Partick win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
63′We published Partick at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Partick · On: A. Fitzpatrick · Off: E. Henderson
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Ayr Utd · On: J. Landers · Off: O. Stirton
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Ayr Utd · On: M. Rus · Off: O. Whyte
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Partick · On: T. Letsosa · Off: B. Stanway
73′We published Partick at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 1–14–85
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ayr Utd · On: J. Murphy · Off: R. Lyon
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Partick
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Partick · On: A. Samuel · Off: T. Watt
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Partick · On: E. Ingram · Off: S. Drozd
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Ayr Utd · On: K. Shanks · Off: E. Walker
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Partick win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
80′We published Partick at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
87′We published Partick at 39%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Partick
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Partick
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Ayr Utd
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Partick
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Partick win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Ayr Utd 0–1 Partick
FTAyr Utd 0–1 Partick · Partick win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Partick are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ayr Utd 31%, draw 31%, Partick 39%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Ayr Utd v PartickBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Ayr Utd win31%

Draw31%

Partick win39%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSomerset Park

RefereeM. MacDermid

Line-ups

Ayr Utd

Partick

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ayr Utd

Partick

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the Scottish Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Partick	9	+7	18
7	Ayr Utd	10	−1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ayr Utd

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Stone

20 L. McBeth

5 K. Holt

3 L. Dick

32 D. Watret

12 O. Whyte

6 R. Lyon

16 B. Summers

33 S. McMann

7 O. Stirton

21 E. Walker

Coach · Gary Naysmith

Substitutes

38 · L. Russell

2 · N. McAllister

8 · L. King

9 · J. Landers

10 · K. Shanks

15 · J. Murphy

17 · T. Hatton

23 · M. Rus

25 · K. Mitchell

Partick

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Budinauckas

24 B. McPherson

5 L. Ashcroft

22 C. Loughrey

3 P. Reading

6 B. Dempsey

8 O. Smyth

26 B. Stanway

7 S. Drozd

32 T. Watt

10 E. Henderson

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · L. McFarlane

2 · C. Logan

11 · G. Mackay-Steven

9 · A. Samuel

14 · R. Crawford

17 · E. Ingram

20 · D. O'Reilly

21 · A. Fitzpatrick

64 · T. Letsosa

Our number · partick winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 17:29 · locked at kick-off

39% The market57%

Us39%

~~Market~~57%

We make Partick a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ayr Utd v Partick~~1.10 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 18~~7 v 3

~~The market · Partick win~~57% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Partick win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ayr Utd win	31%	19%	+12
Draw	31%	24%	+7
Partick win	39%	57%	−18
Over 2.5 goals	42%	55%	−13
Both teams to score	49%	55%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	70%	77%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	22%	35%	−13
Ayr Utd or draw	61%	43%	+18
Ayr Utd clean sheet	29%	–	–
Partick clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%

0123450 11.1 10.4 7.5 3.2 1 8.8 14.4 8.1 3.5 2 5.7 7.1 4.5 3 2.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ayr Utd down, Partick across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 978 Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ayr Utd at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Partick away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Ayr Utd, 1.27 for Partick. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PAR 1–0 AYR · AYR 1–1 PAR · PAR 2–1 AYR · AYR 0–0 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 29 Aug

AYR UTD

LLWLWD0–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

PARTICK

DWLDWW0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stenhousemuir	9	+8	22
2	Raith Rovers	10	+9	20
3	Partick	9	+7	18
4	Livingston	10	+3	13
5	Dunfermline	8	+2	13
6	Inverness CT	10	+1	13
7	Ayr Utd	10	−1	12
8	Arbroath	10	−8	11
9	Queen's Park	10	−10	7
10	Morton	10	−11	4