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Ayr Utd v Dunfermline

Ayr Utd

1–1Full time

Dunfermline

Championship · SAT 10 OCT · Somerset Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Ayr Utd 1–1 Dunfermline AYR UTD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ayr Utd win~~37%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.712

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.773

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ayr Utd win at 37%.
4′Much as we predicted: Ayr Utd was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–32
4′KICK-OFF Ayr Utd v Dunfermline
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Ayr Utd win 32%)
41′🟨 YELLOW · 39' A. Amade · Dunfermline
45′HALF-TIME Ayr Utd 0–0 Dunfermline
46′SECOND HALF Ayr Utd 0–0 Dunfermline
56′⚽ GOAL · 54' Ayr Utd 0–1 Dunfermline · J. Cooper
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Ayr Utd 1–1 Dunfermline
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Dunfermline
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Ayr Utd
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Dunfermline · On: O. Shaw · Off: O. Adams
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ayr Utd · On: B. Summers · Off: N. McAllister
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Ayr Utd · On: J. Landers · Off: O. Stirton
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ayr Utd · On: M. Rus · Off: R. Lyon
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ayr Utd · On: J. Murphy · Off: E. Walker
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Dunfermline · On: C. Morrison · Off: A. Tod
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Dunfermline · On: K. Bray · Off: A. Oyirwoth
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Ayr Utd
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Dunfermline
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Dunfermline
FTFULL TIME Ayr Utd 1–1 Dunfermline
FTAyr Utd 1–1 Dunfermline · Ayr Utd win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ayr Utd win37%

Draw31%

Dunfermline win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Somerset Park

Referee · D. McFarlane

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ayr Utd

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Stone

2 N. McAllister

5 K. Holt

3 L. Dick

32 D. Watret

12 O. Whyte

6 R. Lyon

20 L. McBeth

33 S. McMann

7 O. Stirton

21 E. Walker

Coach · Gary Naysmith

Substitutes

38 · L. Russell

9 · J. Landers

10 · K. Shanks

15 · J. Murphy

16 · B. Summers

17 · T. Hatton

23 · M. Rus

25 · K. Mitchell

34 · J. Douglas

Dunfermline

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Oxborough

24 D. Lobban

15 S. Cleall-Harding

6 N. Abdulai

47 R. Fraser

14 A. Amade

16 R. MacLeod

19 A. Oyirwoth

33 J. Cooper

26 A. Tod

99 O. Adams

Coach · Neil Lennon

Substitutes

12 · M. Dibaga

25 · A. Donnelly

22 · K. Bray

9 · Z. Rudden

10 · O. Shaw

11 · S. Kearney

18 · K. Corbally

8 · C. Gilmour

7 · C. Morrison

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ayr Utd

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Stone

2 N. McAllister

5 K. Holt

3 L. Dick

32 D. Watret

12 O. Whyte

6 R. Lyon

20 L. McBeth

33 S. McMann

7 O. Stirton

21 E. Walker

Coach · Gary Naysmith

Substitutes

38 · L. Russell

9 · J. Landers

10 · K. Shanks

15 · J. Murphy

16 · B. Summers

17 · T. Hatton

23 · M. Rus

25 · K. Mitchell

34 · J. Douglas

Dunfermline

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Oxborough

24 D. Lobban

15 S. Cleall-Harding

6 N. Abdulai

47 R. Fraser

14 A. Amade

16 R. MacLeod

19 A. Oyirwoth

33 J. Cooper

26 A. Tod

99 O. Adams

Coach · Neil Lennon

Substitutes

12 · M. Dibaga

25 · A. Donnelly

22 · K. Bray

9 · Z. Rudden

10 · O. Shaw

11 · S. Kearney

18 · K. Corbally

8 · C. Gilmour

7 · C. Morrison

Our number · ayr utd winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

37% The market29%

Us37%

~~Market~~29%

We make Ayr Utd a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ayr Utd win	37%	29%	+8
Draw	31%	29%	+3
Dunfermline win	31%	42%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	40%	47%	−7
Both teams to score	47%	53%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	68%	71%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	27%	−7
Ayr Utd or draw	69%	58%	+11
Ayr Utd clean sheet	34%	–	–
Dunfermline clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.5%

0123450 11.8 9.5 6.0 2.2 1 10.7 14.5 7.1 2.6 2 7.4 7.9 4.3 3 3.0 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ayr Utd down, Dunfermline across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 972 Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 28.6% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

17 previous meetings, 2.65 goals a meeting; 8 of 17 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ayr Utd at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dunfermline away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Ayr Utd, 1.09 for Dunfermline. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

17 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.65

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 17

~~Both scored~~8 of 17

~~Last meetings~~DUN 1–1 AYR · AYR 0–3 DUN · DUN 2–3 AYR · AYR 0–1 DUN

Form · last six in Championship

AYR UTD

DLLWLW1–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

DUNFERMLINE

DLWDWW1–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stenhousemuir	8	+10	22
2	Raith Rovers	9	+7	17
3	Partick	8	+6	15
4	Livingston	9	+4	13
5	Dunfermline	7	+2	12
6	Ayr Utd	9	−1	11
7	Arbroath	9	−7	11
8	Inverness CT	8	0	10
9	Queen's Park	8	−9	4
10	Morton	9	−12	1