Arbroath v Raith Rovers prediction · Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ArbroathDrawRaith Rovers

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Raith Rovers 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Raith Rovers are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arbroath 28%, draw 30%, Raith Rovers 42%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Arbroath v Raith RoversBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Arbroath win28%

Draw30%

Raith Rovers win42%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueGayfield Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arbroath

Raith Rovers

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Scottish Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Raith Rovers	12	+7	21
8	Arbroath	12	−11	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · raith rovers winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Raith Rovers a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arbroath v Raith Rovers~~1.04 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 21~~8 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arbroath win	28%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Raith Rovers win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Arbroath or draw	58%	–	–
Arbroath clean sheet	27%	–	–
Raith Rovers clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 11.1 11.0 8.2 3.7 1 8.4 14.2 8.4 3.7 2 5.1 6.6 4.4 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arbroath down, Raith Rovers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 988 Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arbroath at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Raith Rovers away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Arbroath, 1.32 for Raith Rovers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RAI 4–0 ARB · ARB 2–1 RAI · RAI 2–3 ARB · ARB 0–0 RAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 19 Sept

ARBROATH

LWLLLL0–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–1

RAITH ROVERS

DLWWDL0–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Partick	12	+11	25
2	Stenhousemuir	11	+5	23
3	Raith Rovers	12	+7	21
4	Inverness CT	12	+5	19
5	Dunfermline	11	+3	18
6	Livingston	12	+4	17
7	Ayr Utd	11	−2	12
8	Arbroath	12	−11	11
9	Morton	11	−9	7
10	Queen's Park	12	−13	7