Arbroath v Morton

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Arbroath win at 42%.
2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Arbroath 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–29
3. 2′KICK-OFF Arbroath v Morton
4. 10′10′ and it is 0–1: G. Gillespie on the scoresheet for Morton. 0–1 · 18–24–58
5. 10′🟥 RED CARD · 9' S. Constable · Arbroath
6. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Arbroath 0–1 Morton
7. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Arbroath win: 42% at kick-off, 18% now
8. 10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Morton win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Arbroath win 18%)
9. 15′Arbroath are down to ten from 9′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 17–24–59
10. 20′We said Arbroath at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–24–60
11. 29′A red card for Morton on 28′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 14–24–61
12. 30′A red card for Morton on 28′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 14–24–62
13. 30′🟥 RED CARD · 28' C. Cupps · Morton
14. 35′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Morton · On: P. Croker · Off: K. Robertson
15. 37′We said Arbroath at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–24–64
16. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Arbroath win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
17. 40′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 11–24–64
18. 42′🟥 RED CARD · 9' S. Constable · Arbroath
19. 42′⚽ GOAL · 10' Arbroath 0–1 Morton · G. Gillespie
20. 42′🟥 RED CARD · 28' C. Cupps · Morton
21. 42′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Morton · On: P. Croker · Off: K. Robertson
22. 45′HALF-TIME Arbroath 0–1 Morton
23. 45′SECOND HALF Arbroath 0–1 Morton
24. 46′SECOND HALF Arbroath 0–1 Morton
25. 48′We said Arbroath at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
26. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Arbroath 0–2 Morton · G. Gillespie
27. 49′⚽ GOAL · 50' Arbroath 0–1 Morton
28. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Arbroath 0–2 Morton · G. Gillespie
29. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Arbroath 1–2 Morton · C. Dewar
30. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Arbroath 1–2 Morton
31. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Arbroath
32. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' P. Croker · Morton
33. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Arbroath · On: B. Paterson · Off: J. MacIntyre Corrected
34. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Arbroath · On: B. Paterson · Off: J. MacIntyre Corrected
35. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Arbroath · On: A. Winter · Off: G. Reilly
36. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Arbroath · On: C. Daly · Off: C. Dewar
37. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Morton · On: S. Bashir · Off: D. Borso
38. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Morton
39. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Morton · On: H. Cochrane · Off: C. Sandilands
40. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Morton · On: J. Gorman · Off: M. Garrity
41. FTFULL TIME Arbroath 1–2 Morton
42. FTArbroath 1–2 Morton · Arbroath win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.