Home › Football › Challenge Cup › Spartans v Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Spartans v Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Spartans

1–1Full time

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Challenge Cup · TUE 13 OCT · Ainslie Park

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Spartans 1–1 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic SPARTANS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Spartans win~~57%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.957

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.003

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spartans win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: Spartans was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–22–21
1′KICK-OFF Spartans v Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Spartans win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
45′We said Spartans at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–36–20
45′HALF-TIME Spartans 0–0 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
46′SECOND HALF Spartans 0–0 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
55′We said Spartans at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–42–19
56′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 39–43–18
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Spartans win: 57% at kick-off, 37% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Spartans win 37%)
64′Spartans find the net on 65′. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–14–2
64′⚽ GOAL · 65' Spartans 1–0 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Spartans win: 57% at kick-off, 84% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Spartans win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
65′We published Spartans at 57%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
67′A goal for Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic on 68′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–14–2
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Spartans 1–1 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
90′Full time, 1–1. We called Spartans at 57% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Spartans 1–1 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
FTSpartans 1–1 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic · Spartans win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

Spartans win57%

Draw23%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic win20%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

VenueAinslie Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Spartans

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

18Days since last match17

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	5	−2	9
21	Spartans	5	+2	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spartans winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

57% The market59%

Us57%

~~Market~~59%

We make Spartans a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · spartans win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spartans win	57%	59%	−2
Draw	23%	21%	+2
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic win	20%	20%	0
Over 2.5 goals	57%	65%	−9
Both teams to score	56%	63%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	80%	84%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	34%	45%	−11
Spartans or draw	80%	80%	0
Spartans clean sheet	35%	–	–
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.6 5.2 2.9 1 9.5 10.8 5.5 2 9.4 9.9 5.2 3 5.9 6.3 3.3 4 2.8 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spartans down, Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Spartans play in the League Two, Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic in the Football League - Lowland League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Spartans are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Spartans, 1.06 for Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Challenge Cup since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Challenge Cup

SPARTANS

LDWLDW1–2 · 2–2 · 5–0 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 1–0

BONNYRIGG ROSE ATHLETIC

LWWLLW1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–6 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Clydebank	5	+9	13
2	Ross County	5	+22	12
3	Airdrie United	5	+12	12
4	Elgin City	5	+12	12
5	Cove Rangers	5	+11	12
6	Peterhead	5	+7	12
7	Alloa Athletic	5	+7	11
8	Queen of the South	5	+7	11
9	East Kilbride	5	+5	10
10	Stirling Albion	5	+4	10
11	Edinburgh City	5	+2	10
12	St. Mirren U21	5	+6	9
13	Hamilton Academical	5	+5	9
14	Montrose	5	+4	9
15	Celtic II	5	+3	9
16	Formartine United	5	+3	9
17	Kelty Hearts	5	+1	9
18	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	5	−2	9
19	Hearts U21	5	−11	9
20	Annan Athletic	5	+4	8
21	Spartans	5	+2	8
22	Aberdeen U21	5	+2	7
23	East Fife	5	+1	7
24	Forfar Athletic	5	−2	7
25	Berwick Rangers	5	−5	7
26	Dumbarton	5	−5	7
27	Stranraer	5	+1	6
28	Rangers U21	5	+1	6
29	Clachnacuddin	5	−2	4
30	Kilmarnock II	5	−5	4
31	Banks O' Dee	5	−8	4
32	Fraserburgh	5	−13	4
33	Clyde	5	−8	3
34	Dundee United II	5	−8	3
35	Cumbernauld Colts	5	−9	2
36	Gala Fairydean Rovers	5	−12	2
37	Cowdenbeath	5	−8	0
38	Dundee II	5	−9	0
39	Hibernian U21	5	−10	0
40	Motherwell U21	5	−14	0