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Ross County v Forfar Athletic

Ross County

2–1Full time

Forfar Athletic

Challenge Cup · TUE 13 OCT · Global Energy Stadium

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Ross County 2–1 Forfar Athletic ROSS COUNTY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ross County win~~85%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.036

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.073

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ross County win at 85%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ross County 85% before kick-off, 85% now. 0–0 · 85–11–4
1′KICK-OFF Ross County v Forfar Athletic
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Ross County 1–0 Forfar Athletic
17′15′ and it is 0–0: Ross County have scored. 0–0 · 81–14–5
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Ross County win: 85% at kick-off, 75% now
35′We said Ross County at 85%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 73%. 0–0 · 73–21–6
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Ross County 1–0 Forfar Athletic
41′37′ and it is 1–0: J. Turner on the scoresheet for Ross County. 1–0 · 94–5–1
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Ross County win: 85% at kick-off, 94% now
45′HALF-TIME Ross County 1–0 Forfar Athletic
45′⚽ GOAL · 37' Ross County 1–0 Forfar Athletic · J. Turner
46′SECOND HALF Ross County 1–0 Forfar Athletic
59′⚽ GOAL · 37' Ross County 1–0 Forfar Athletic · J. Turner
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Ross County 1–1 Forfar Athletic
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Ross County 2–1 Forfar Athletic
90′C. Hamilton scores for Ross County on 88′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 98–2–0
FTFULL TIME Ross County 2–1 Forfar Athletic
FTRoss County 2–1 Forfar Athletic · Ross County win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

Ross County win85%

Draw11%

Forfar Athletic win4%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

VenueGlobal Energy Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ross County

Forfar Athletic

17Days since last match14

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Ross County	5	+22	12
24	Forfar Athletic	5	−2	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

SPFL round-up: Big wins for Ross County & StranraerBBC Sport · 1 day ago · Ross County, Stranraer

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ross county winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

85% The market78%

Us85%

~~Market~~78%

We make Ross County a 85% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.9–0.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ross county win The market, margin stripped

Published at 84%, 85% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ross County win	85%	78%	+7
Draw	11%	13%	−2
Forfar Athletic win	4%	9%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	66%	77%	−12
Both teams to score	38%	59%	−21
Over 1.5 goals	85%	89%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	44%	59%	−15
Ross County or draw	96%	91%	+5
Ross County clean sheet	60%	–	–
Forfar Athletic clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 14.0%

0123450 3.6 1 9.6 5.1 2 14.0 7.1 3 13.4 6.8 4 9.6 4.9 5 5.5 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Ross County down, Forfar Athletic across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Ross County play in the Championship, Forfar Athletic in the League Two.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Ross County are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

2.87 goals for Ross County, 0.51 for Forfar Athletic. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Challenge Cup since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Challenge Cup

ROSS COUNTY

LWWLWW0–2 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 3–4 · 5–1 · 14–0

FORFAR ATHLETIC

LLDLWW0–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Clydebank	5	+9	13
2	Ross County	5	+22	12
3	Airdrie United	5	+12	12
4	Elgin City	5	+12	12
5	Cove Rangers	5	+11	12
6	Peterhead	5	+7	12
7	Alloa Athletic	5	+7	11
8	Queen of the South	5	+7	11
9	East Kilbride	5	+5	10
10	Stirling Albion	5	+4	10
11	Edinburgh City	5	+2	10
12	St. Mirren U21	5	+6	9
13	Hamilton Academical	5	+5	9
14	Montrose	5	+4	9
15	Celtic II	5	+3	9
16	Formartine United	5	+3	9
17	Kelty Hearts	5	+1	9
18	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	5	−2	9
19	Hearts U21	5	−11	9
20	Annan Athletic	5	+4	8
21	Spartans	5	+2	8
22	Aberdeen U21	5	+2	7
23	East Fife	5	+1	7
24	Forfar Athletic	5	−2	7
25	Berwick Rangers	5	−5	7
26	Dumbarton	5	−5	7
27	Stranraer	5	+1	6
28	Rangers U21	5	+1	6
29	Clachnacuddin	5	−2	4
30	Kilmarnock II	5	−5	4
31	Banks O' Dee	5	−8	4
32	Fraserburgh	5	−13	4
33	Clyde	5	−8	3
34	Dundee United II	5	−8	3
35	Cumbernauld Colts	5	−9	2
36	Gala Fairydean Rovers	5	−12	2
37	Cowdenbeath	5	−8	0
38	Dundee II	5	−9	0
39	Hibernian U21	5	−10	0
40	Motherwell U21	5	−14	0