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East Kilbride v Kelty Hearts

East Kilbride

2–1Full time

Kelty Hearts

Challenge Cup · TUE 13 OCT · K-Park Training Academy

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

East Kilbride 2–1 Kelty Hearts EAST KILBRIDE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said East Kilbride win~~60%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.245

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.178

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said East Kilbride win at 60%.
0′Much as we predicted: East Kilbride was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–20–21
1′KICK-OFF East Kilbride v Kelty Hearts
29′A goal for East Kilbride on 30′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 53–26–21
29′⚽ GOAL · 30' East Kilbride 0–0 Kelty Hearts
30′We published East Kilbride at 60%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–7
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' East Kilbride 1–0 Kelty Hearts
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' East Kilbride win: 60% at kick-off, 79% now
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 1–0 · 79–14–7
45′HALF-TIME East Kilbride 1–0 Kelty Hearts
45′SECOND HALF East Kilbride 1–0 Kelty Hearts
46′⚽ GOAL · 30' East Kilbride 1–0 Kelty Hearts · C. McGuffie (assist L. McGrattan)
48′We published East Kilbride at 60%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' East Kilbride win: 60% at kick-off, 80% now
61′⚽ GOAL · 30' East Kilbride 1–0 Kelty Hearts · C. McGuffie (assist L. McGrattan)
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' East Kilbride 1–1 Kelty Hearts · C. McGuffie
69′69′ and it is 1–1: Kelty Hearts have scored. 1–1 · 33–51–16
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' East Kilbride win: 60% at kick-off, 33% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was East Kilbride win 33%)
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' East Kilbride 2–1 Kelty Hearts · C. McGuffie
FTFULL TIME East Kilbride 2–1 Kelty Hearts
FTEast Kilbride 2–1 Kelty Hearts · East Kilbride win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

East Kilbride win60%

Draw20%

Kelty Hearts win20%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

VenueK-Park Training Academy

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

East Kilbride

Kelty Hearts

17Days since last match17

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	East Kilbride	5	+5	10
17	Kelty Hearts	5	+1	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · east kilbride winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

60% The market66%

Us60%

~~Market~~66%

We make East Kilbride a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · east kilbride win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
East Kilbride win	60%	66%	−6
Draw	20%	18%	+2
Kelty Hearts win	20%	16%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	69%	73%	−4
Both teams to score	65%	66%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	87%	88%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	48%	54%	−6
East Kilbride or draw	80%	84%	−4
East Kilbride clean sheet	28%	–	–
Kelty Hearts clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.1 3.3 2.3 1 6.2 8.5 5.3 2.3 2 7.3 9.4 6.1 2.6 3 5.6 7.2 4.6 4 3.2 4.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+East Kilbride down, Kelty Hearts across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

East Kilbride play in the League Two, Kelty Hearts in the League One.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: East Kilbride are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

2.29 goals for East Kilbride, 1.29 for Kelty Hearts. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Challenge Cup since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Challenge Cup

EAST KILBRIDE

LWWWDL1–4 · 5–3 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 3–3 · 3–4

KELTY HEARTS

LWLWLW2–3 · 4–3 · 2–4 · 3–0 · 3–5 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Clydebank	5	+9	13
2	Ross County	5	+22	12
3	Airdrie United	5	+12	12
4	Elgin City	5	+12	12
5	Cove Rangers	5	+11	12
6	Peterhead	5	+7	12
7	Alloa Athletic	5	+7	11
8	Queen of the South	5	+7	11
9	East Kilbride	5	+5	10
10	Stirling Albion	5	+4	10
11	Edinburgh City	5	+2	10
12	St. Mirren U21	5	+6	9
13	Hamilton Academical	5	+5	9
14	Montrose	5	+4	9
15	Celtic II	5	+3	9
16	Formartine United	5	+3	9
17	Kelty Hearts	5	+1	9
18	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	5	−2	9
19	Hearts U21	5	−11	9
20	Annan Athletic	5	+4	8
21	Spartans	5	+2	8
22	Aberdeen U21	5	+2	7
23	East Fife	5	+1	7
24	Forfar Athletic	5	−2	7
25	Berwick Rangers	5	−5	7
26	Dumbarton	5	−5	7
27	Stranraer	5	+1	6
28	Rangers U21	5	+1	6
29	Clachnacuddin	5	−2	4
30	Kilmarnock II	5	−5	4
31	Banks O' Dee	5	−8	4
32	Fraserburgh	5	−13	4
33	Clyde	5	−8	3
34	Dundee United II	5	−8	3
35	Cumbernauld Colts	5	−9	2
36	Gala Fairydean Rovers	5	−12	2
37	Cowdenbeath	5	−8	0
38	Dundee II	5	−9	0
39	Hibernian U21	5	−10	0
40	Motherwell U21	5	−14	0