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Cumbernauld Colts v East Fife

Cumbernauld Colts

2–1Full time

East Fife

Challenge Cup · TUE 13 OCT · Broadwood Stadium

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Cumbernauld Colts 2–1 East Fife EAST FIFE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said East Fife win~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.087

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said East Fife win at 61%.
1′Little has changed for our model: East Fife 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 18–21–61
1′KICK-OFF Cumbernauld Colts v East Fife
29′East Fife find the net on 29′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–14–81
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Cumbernauld Colts 0–1 East Fife
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' East Fife win: 61% at kick-off, 81% now
30′We said East Fife at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 0–1 · 5–14–81
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 5–14–81
45′HALF-TIME Cumbernauld Colts 0–1 East Fife
46′SECOND HALF Cumbernauld Colts 0–1 East Fife
46′⚽ GOAL · 29' Cumbernauld Colts 0–1 East Fife · M. Gaffney (assist R. Peggie)
60′⚽ GOAL · 29' Cumbernauld Colts 0–1 East Fife · M. Gaffney (assist R. Peggie)
67′We said East Fife at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Cumbernauld Colts 1–1 East Fife
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Cumbernauld Colts 2–1 East Fife
90′87′ and it is 2–1: T. Horn on the scoresheet for Cumbernauld Colts. 2–1 · 93–6–0
90′We said East Fife at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 2–1 · 93–6–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' East Fife win: 61% at kick-off, 0% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Cumbernauld Colts win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was East Fife win 0%)
FTFULL TIME Cumbernauld Colts 2–1 East Fife
FTCumbernauld Colts 2–1 East Fife · East Fife win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

Cumbernauld Colts win18%

Draw21%

East Fife win61%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

VenueBroadwood Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cumbernauld Colts

East Fife

17Days since last match17

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
23	East Fife	5	+1	7
35	Cumbernauld Colts	5	−9	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · east fife winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make East Fife a 61% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–2.1, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cumbernauld Colts win	18%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
East Fife win	61%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Cumbernauld Colts or draw	39%	–	–
Cumbernauld Colts clean sheet	12%	–	–
East Fife clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.9%

0123450 4.5 8.5 9.3 6.5 3.4 1 4.1 9.7 9.9 7.0 3.7 2 2.4 5.0 5.3 3.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cumbernauld Colts down, East Fife across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Cumbernauld Colts play in the Football League - Lowland League, East Fife in the League One.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Cumbernauld Colts are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Cumbernauld Colts, 2.11 for East Fife. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Challenge Cup since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Challenge Cup

CUMBERNAULD COLTS

LDLDL0–4 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–4

EAST FIFE

LDLWWL0–3 · 2–2 · 2–5 · 4–1 · 4–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Clydebank	5	+9	13
2	Ross County	5	+22	12
3	Airdrie United	5	+12	12
4	Elgin City	5	+12	12
5	Cove Rangers	5	+11	12
6	Peterhead	5	+7	12
7	Alloa Athletic	5	+7	11
8	Queen of the South	5	+7	11
9	East Kilbride	5	+5	10
10	Stirling Albion	5	+4	10
11	Edinburgh City	5	+2	10
12	St. Mirren U21	5	+6	9
13	Hamilton Academical	5	+5	9
14	Montrose	5	+4	9
15	Celtic II	5	+3	9
16	Formartine United	5	+3	9
17	Kelty Hearts	5	+1	9
18	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	5	−2	9
19	Hearts U21	5	−11	9
20	Annan Athletic	5	+4	8
21	Spartans	5	+2	8
22	Aberdeen U21	5	+2	7
23	East Fife	5	+1	7
24	Forfar Athletic	5	−2	7
25	Berwick Rangers	5	−5	7
26	Dumbarton	5	−5	7
27	Stranraer	5	+1	6
28	Rangers U21	5	+1	6
29	Clachnacuddin	5	−2	4
30	Kilmarnock II	5	−5	4
31	Banks O' Dee	5	−8	4
32	Fraserburgh	5	−13	4
33	Clyde	5	−8	3
34	Dundee United II	5	−8	3
35	Cumbernauld Colts	5	−9	2
36	Gala Fairydean Rovers	5	−12	2
37	Cowdenbeath	5	−8	0
38	Dundee II	5	−9	0
39	Hibernian U21	5	−10	0
40	Motherwell U21	5	−14	0