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Cowdenbeath v Celtic II

Cowdenbeath

2–3Full time

Celtic II

Challenge Cup · TUE 13 OCT · Central Park

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Cowdenbeath 2–3 Celtic II CELTIC II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Celtic II win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.466

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Celtic II win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF Cowdenbeath v Celtic II
24′Celtic II find the net on 24′. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–26–42
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Cowdenbeath 1–1 Celtic II
25′Much as we predicted: Celtic II was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 1–1 · 33–26–41
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Cowdenbeath 1–2 Celtic II
28′A goal for Celtic II on 27′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 13–19–68
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Celtic II win: 45% at kick-off, 68% now
29′F. Turley scores for Celtic II on 25′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 13–19–68
30′A red card for Cowdenbeath on 30′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–2 · 13–19–68
30′🟥 RED CARD · 30' Cowdenbeath
31′We published Celtic II at 45%. Our model now makes it 68%. 1–2 · 13–19–68
45′We published Celtic II at 45%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–2 · 10–20–70
45′45′ and it is 2–2: Cowdenbeath have scored. 2–2 · 30–32–37
45′4 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 30–32–37
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' Cowdenbeath 2–2 Celtic II
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Celtic II win: 45% at kick-off, 37% now
45′HALF-TIME Cowdenbeath 2–2 Celtic II
45′⚽ GOAL · 11' Cowdenbeath 2–2 Celtic II · F. Turley
45′⚽ GOAL · 22' Cowdenbeath 2–2 Celtic II · R. Walker
45′⚽ GOAL · 25' Cowdenbeath 2–2 Celtic II · F. Turley
45′🟥 RED CARD · 30' P. McLean · Cowdenbeath
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Cowdenbeath 2–2 Celtic II · S. Cameron
46′SECOND HALF Cowdenbeath 2–2 Celtic II
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Celtic II win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
58′We said Celtic II at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 2–2 · 27–40–33
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Celtic II win 33%)
59′⚽ GOAL · 11' Cowdenbeath 2–2 Celtic II · F. Turley
59′⚽ GOAL · 22' Cowdenbeath 2–2 Celtic II · R. Walker
59′⚽ GOAL · 25' Cowdenbeath 2–2 Celtic II · F. Turley
59′🟥 RED CARD · 30' P. McLean · Cowdenbeath
59′⚽ GOAL · 45' Cowdenbeath 2–2 Celtic II · S. Cameron
65′We said Celtic II at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 25–46–29
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Cowdenbeath 2–3 Celtic II
90′Celtic II ahead on 69′ through N. Meechan. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–5–95
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Celtic II win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Celtic II win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
FTFULL TIME Cowdenbeath 2–3 Celtic II
FTCowdenbeath 2–3 Celtic II · Celtic II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

Cowdenbeath win35%

Draw21%

Celtic II win45%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

VenueCentral Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cowdenbeath

Celtic II

17Days since last match17

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Celtic II	5	+3	9
37	Cowdenbeath	5	−8	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · celtic ii winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Celtic II a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–2.0, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cowdenbeath win	35%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Celtic II win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
Cowdenbeath or draw	55%	–	–
Cowdenbeath clean sheet	15%	–	–
Celtic II clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.2%

0123450 2.4 5.5 5.0 3.3 1 4.9 8.2 8.2 5.3 2.7 2 3.8 7.1 6.8 4.5 2.2 3 2.1 4.1 3.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cowdenbeath down, Celtic II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,731 Football League - Lowland League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Football League - Lowland League matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.9% of games this season, across 165 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 4.75 goals a meeting; 8 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cowdenbeath at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Celtic II away: 2.50 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Cowdenbeath, 1.97 for Celtic II. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.75

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 8

~~Both scored~~7 of 8

~~Last meetings~~CEL 2–2 COW · COW 2–1 CEL · CEL 6–4 COW · COW 2–2 CEL

Form · last six in Challenge Cup

COWDENBEATH

LWLLWW0–2 · 4–2 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 3–1

CELTIC II

WWDLWL5–1 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 2–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Clydebank	5	+9	13
2	Ross County	5	+22	12
3	Airdrie United	5	+12	12
4	Elgin City	5	+12	12
5	Cove Rangers	5	+11	12
6	Peterhead	5	+7	12
7	Alloa Athletic	5	+7	11
8	Queen of the South	5	+7	11
9	East Kilbride	5	+5	10
10	Stirling Albion	5	+4	10
11	Edinburgh City	5	+2	10
12	St. Mirren U21	5	+6	9
13	Hamilton Academical	5	+5	9
14	Montrose	5	+4	9
15	Celtic II	5	+3	9
16	Formartine United	5	+3	9
17	Kelty Hearts	5	+1	9
18	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	5	−2	9
19	Hearts U21	5	−11	9
20	Annan Athletic	5	+4	8
21	Spartans	5	+2	8
22	Aberdeen U21	5	+2	7
23	East Fife	5	+1	7
24	Forfar Athletic	5	−2	7
25	Berwick Rangers	5	−5	7
26	Dumbarton	5	−5	7
27	Stranraer	5	+1	6
28	Rangers U21	5	+1	6
29	Clachnacuddin	5	−2	4
30	Kilmarnock II	5	−5	4
31	Banks O' Dee	5	−8	4
32	Fraserburgh	5	−13	4
33	Clyde	5	−8	3
34	Dundee United II	5	−8	3
35	Cumbernauld Colts	5	−9	2
36	Gala Fairydean Rovers	5	−12	2
37	Cowdenbeath	5	−8	0
38	Dundee II	5	−9	0
39	Hibernian U21	5	−10	0
40	Motherwell U21	5	−14	0