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Cove Rangers v Formartine United

Cove Rangers

2–1Full time

Formartine United

Challenge Cup · TUE 13 OCT · Balmoral Stadium

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Cove Rangers 2–1 Formartine United COVE RANGERS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cove Rangers win~~74%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.107

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.262

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cove Rangers win at 74%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cove Rangers 74% before kick-off, 74% now. 0–0 · 74–17–9
1′KICK-OFF Cove Rangers v Formartine United
8′A goal for Cove Rangers on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 90–7–2
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Cove Rangers 1–0 Formartine United
8′⚽ GOAL · 9' Cove Rangers 1–0 Formartine United
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Cove Rangers win: 74% at kick-off, 90% now
10′We said Cove Rangers at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–7–2
26′We said Cove Rangers at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–0 · 89–8–2
27′28′ and it is 2–0: Cove Rangers have scored. 2–0 · 98–2–0
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Cove Rangers 2–0 Formartine United · M. Keir
27′⚽ GOAL · 28' Cove Rangers 2–0 Formartine United
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Cove Rangers win: 74% at kick-off, 98% now
29′We said Cove Rangers at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
45′SECOND HALF Cove Rangers 2–0 Formartine United
46′⚽ GOAL · 9' Cove Rangers 2–0 Formartine United · M. Keir (assist A. Francis-Burrell)
46′⚽ GOAL · 28' Cove Rangers 2–0 Formartine United · A. Francis-Burrell (assist R. Harrington)
49′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 2–0 · 98–1–0
49′Formartine United find the net on 50′. 2–1. 2–1 · 89–9–2
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Cove Rangers 2–1 Formartine United · A. Francis-Burrell
49′⚽ GOAL · 50' Cove Rangers 2–1 Formartine United
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Cove Rangers win: 74% at kick-off, 89% now
51′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 89–9–1
61′⚽ GOAL · 9' Cove Rangers 2–1 Formartine United · M. Keir (assist A. Francis-Burrell)
61′⚽ GOAL · 28' Cove Rangers 2–1 Formartine United · A. Francis-Burrell (assist R. Harrington)
61′⚽ GOAL · 50' Cove Rangers 2–1 Formartine United · R. McAllister (assist T. Mykyta)
FTFULL TIME Cove Rangers 2–1 Formartine United
FTCove Rangers 2–1 Formartine United · Cove Rangers win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

Cove Rangers win74%

Draw17%

Formartine United win9%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

VenueBalmoral Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cove Rangers

Formartine United

17Days since last match14

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Cove Rangers	5	+11	12
16	Formartine United	5	+3	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cove rangers winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

74% The market58%

Us74%

~~Market~~58%

We make Cove Rangers a 74% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cove rangers win The market, margin stripped

Published at 75%, 74% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cove Rangers win	74%	58%	+16
Draw	17%	22%	−5
Formartine United win	9%	20%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	57%	62%	−5
Both teams to score	45%	60%	−16
Over 1.5 goals	80%	82%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	42%	−7
Cove Rangers or draw	91%	80%	+11
Cove Rangers clean sheet	51%	–	–
Formartine United clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.5%

0123450 5.3 3.2 1 11.4 8.2 2.7 2 13.5 9.1 3.1 3 10.3 7.0 2.4 4 5.9 4.0 5 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Cove Rangers down, Formartine United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Cove Rangers play in the League One, Formartine United in the Football League - Highland League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Cove Rangers are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

2.30 goals for Cove Rangers, 0.68 for Formartine United. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Challenge Cup since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Challenge Cup

COVE RANGERS

LLWWWW1–2 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 6–1 · 5–0 · 2–1

FORMARTINE UNITED

LWLWWL0–2 · 4–1 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Clydebank	5	+9	13
2	Ross County	5	+22	12
3	Airdrie United	5	+12	12
4	Elgin City	5	+12	12
5	Cove Rangers	5	+11	12
6	Peterhead	5	+7	12
7	Alloa Athletic	5	+7	11
8	Queen of the South	5	+7	11
9	East Kilbride	5	+5	10
10	Stirling Albion	5	+4	10
11	Edinburgh City	5	+2	10
12	St. Mirren U21	5	+6	9
13	Hamilton Academical	5	+5	9
14	Montrose	5	+4	9
15	Celtic II	5	+3	9
16	Formartine United	5	+3	9
17	Kelty Hearts	5	+1	9
18	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	5	−2	9
19	Hearts U21	5	−11	9
20	Annan Athletic	5	+4	8
21	Spartans	5	+2	8
22	Aberdeen U21	5	+2	7
23	East Fife	5	+1	7
24	Forfar Athletic	5	−2	7
25	Berwick Rangers	5	−5	7
26	Dumbarton	5	−5	7
27	Stranraer	5	+1	6
28	Rangers U21	5	+1	6
29	Clachnacuddin	5	−2	4
30	Kilmarnock II	5	−5	4
31	Banks O' Dee	5	−8	4
32	Fraserburgh	5	−13	4
33	Clyde	5	−8	3
34	Dundee United II	5	−8	3
35	Cumbernauld Colts	5	−9	2
36	Gala Fairydean Rovers	5	−12	2
37	Cowdenbeath	5	−8	0
38	Dundee II	5	−9	0
39	Hibernian U21	5	−10	0
40	Motherwell U21	5	−14	0