Home › Football › Challenge Cup › Clydebank v Dumbarton

Clydebank v Dumbarton

Clydebank

4–0Full time

Dumbarton

Challenge Cup · TUE 13 OCT · Holm Park

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Clydebank 4–0 Dumbarton CLYDEBANK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Clydebank win~~62%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.215

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.344

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Clydebank win at 62%.
1′Much as we predicted: Clydebank was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–18–19
1′KICK-OFF Clydebank v Dumbarton
22′Clydebank find the net on 23′. 0–0. 0–0 · 58–22–20
22′⚽ GOAL · 23' Clydebank 0–0 Dumbarton
23′We published Clydebank at 62%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–13–7
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Clydebank 1–0 Dumbarton
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Clydebank win: 62% at kick-off, 80% now
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.8 we expected. 1–0 · 80–14–7
45′SECOND HALF Clydebank 1–0 Dumbarton
55′⚽ GOAL · 23' Clydebank 1–0 Dumbarton · O. McHugh (assist N. Low)
56′⚽ GOAL · 23' Clydebank 1–0 Dumbarton · O. McHugh (assist N. Low)
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Clydebank win: 62% at kick-off, 82% now
62′⚽ GOAL · 63' Clydebank 1–0 Dumbarton
63′A goal for Clydebank on 63′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–15–3
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Clydebank 2–0 Dumbarton · O. McHugh
65′We published Clydebank at 62%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Clydebank win: 62% at kick-off, 97% now
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Clydebank 3–0 Dumbarton · D. Docherty (assist D. Cairns)
90′78′ and it is 3–0: D. Docherty on the scoresheet for Clydebank. 3–0 · 100–0–0
92′Clydebank find the net on 90′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Clydebank 4–0 Dumbarton
FTFULL TIME Clydebank 4–0 Dumbarton
FTClydebank 4–0 Dumbarton · Clydebank win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

Clydebank win62%

Draw19%

Dumbarton win19%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

VenueHolm Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Clydebank

Dumbarton

17Days since last match17

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Clydebank	5	+9	13
26	Dumbarton	5	−5	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · clydebank winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

62% The market52%

Us62%

~~Market~~52%

We make Clydebank a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · clydebank win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Clydebank win	62%	52%	+10
Draw	19%	23%	−5
Dumbarton win	19%	25%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	74%	66%	+7
Both teams to score	68%	66%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	90%	84%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	53%	47%	+7
Clydebank or draw	81%	75%	+6
Clydebank clean sheet	26%	–	–
Dumbarton clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 2.4 2.7 1 5.1 7.5 4.9 2.2 2 6.7 9.0 6.1 2.7 3 5.6 7.5 5.0 2.3 4 3.5 4.6 3.1 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Clydebank down, Dumbarton across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Clydebank play in the Football League - Lowland League, Dumbarton in the League Two.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Clydebank are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

2.49 goals for Clydebank, 1.35 for Dumbarton. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Challenge Cup since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Challenge Cup

CLYDEBANK

WWDWW4–0 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0

DUMBARTON

LLDLWW0–9 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–6 · 3–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Clydebank	5	+9	13
2	Ross County	5	+22	12
3	Airdrie United	5	+12	12
4	Elgin City	5	+12	12
5	Cove Rangers	5	+11	12
6	Peterhead	5	+7	12
7	Alloa Athletic	5	+7	11
8	Queen of the South	5	+7	11
9	East Kilbride	5	+5	10
10	Stirling Albion	5	+4	10
11	Edinburgh City	5	+2	10
12	St. Mirren U21	5	+6	9
13	Hamilton Academical	5	+5	9
14	Montrose	5	+4	9
15	Celtic II	5	+3	9
16	Formartine United	5	+3	9
17	Kelty Hearts	5	+1	9
18	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	5	−2	9
19	Hearts U21	5	−11	9
20	Annan Athletic	5	+4	8
21	Spartans	5	+2	8
22	Aberdeen U21	5	+2	7
23	East Fife	5	+1	7
24	Forfar Athletic	5	−2	7
25	Berwick Rangers	5	−5	7
26	Dumbarton	5	−5	7
27	Stranraer	5	+1	6
28	Rangers U21	5	+1	6
29	Clachnacuddin	5	−2	4
30	Kilmarnock II	5	−5	4
31	Banks O' Dee	5	−8	4
32	Fraserburgh	5	−13	4
33	Clyde	5	−8	3
34	Dundee United II	5	−8	3
35	Cumbernauld Colts	5	−9	2
36	Gala Fairydean Rovers	5	−12	2
37	Cowdenbeath	5	−8	0
38	Dundee II	5	−9	0
39	Hibernian U21	5	−10	0
40	Motherwell U21	5	−14	0