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Berwick Rangers v Queen of the South

Berwick Rangers

1–0Full time

Queen of the South

Challenge Cup · TUE 13 OCT · Shielfield Park

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Berwick Rangers 1–0 Queen of the South QUEEN OF THE SOUTH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Queen of the South win~~75%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.405

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.243

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Queen of the South win at 75%.
1′Much as we predicted: Queen of the South was 75% before kick-off and our model makes it 75% now. 0–0 · 10–15–75
1′KICK-OFF Berwick Rangers v Queen of the South
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Queen of the South win: 75% at kick-off, 65% now
40′We said Queen of the South at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 62%. 0–0 · 12–26–62
45′We said Queen of the South at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 12–28–59
45′HALF-TIME Berwick Rangers 0–0 Queen of the South
45′SECOND HALF Berwick Rangers 0–0 Queen of the South
51′⚽ GOAL · 52' Berwick Rangers 0–0 Queen of the South
52′D. Handling scores for Berwick Rangers on 52′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 45–31–24
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Berwick Rangers 1–0 Queen of the South
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Queen of the South win: 75% at kick-off, 24% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Berwick Rangers win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Queen of the South win 24%)
53′We said Queen of the South at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 45–31–24
59′We said Queen of the South at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 50–31–19
60′⚽ GOAL · 52' Berwick Rangers 1–0 Queen of the South · D. Handling
65′We said Queen of the South at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 56–30–14
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Queen of the South win: 75% at kick-off, 14% now
93′We said Queen of the South at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 1–0 · 96–4–0
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Queen of the South win: 75% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Berwick Rangers 1–0 Queen of the South
FTBerwick Rangers 1–0 Queen of the South · Queen of the South win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

Berwick Rangers win10%

Draw15%

Queen of the South win75%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

VenueShielfield Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Berwick Rangers

Queen of the South

17Days since last match17

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Queen of the South	5	+7	11
25	Berwick Rangers	5	−5	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · queen of the south winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

75% The market68%

Us75%

~~Market~~68%

We make Queen of the South a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · queen of the south win The market, margin stripped

Published at 76%, 75% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Berwick Rangers win	10%	14%	−4
Draw	15%	18%	−3
Queen of the South win	75%	68%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	69%	70%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	60%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	87%	86%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	48%	50%	−2
Berwick Rangers or draw	25%	32%	−7
Berwick Rangers clean sheet	7%	–	–
Queen of the South clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.2%

0123450 3.1 7.4 10.2 9.1 6.1 3.31 2.3 6.9 9.0 8.0 5.4 2.92 3.0 4.0 3.5 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Berwick Rangers down, Queen of the South across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Berwick Rangers play in the Football League - Lowland League, Queen of the South in the League One.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Berwick Rangers are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

0.88 goals for Berwick Rangers, 2.68 for Queen of the South. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Challenge Cup since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Challenge Cup

BERWICK RANGERS

LLDWWL0–4 · 3–4 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–7

QUEEN OF THE SOUTH

LWWDDW0–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Clydebank	5	+9	13
2	Ross County	5	+22	12
3	Airdrie United	5	+12	12
4	Elgin City	5	+12	12
5	Cove Rangers	5	+11	12
6	Peterhead	5	+7	12
7	Alloa Athletic	5	+7	11
8	Queen of the South	5	+7	11
9	East Kilbride	5	+5	10
10	Stirling Albion	5	+4	10
11	Edinburgh City	5	+2	10
12	St. Mirren U21	5	+6	9
13	Hamilton Academical	5	+5	9
14	Montrose	5	+4	9
15	Celtic II	5	+3	9
16	Formartine United	5	+3	9
17	Kelty Hearts	5	+1	9
18	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	5	−2	9
19	Hearts U21	5	−11	9
20	Annan Athletic	5	+4	8
21	Spartans	5	+2	8
22	Aberdeen U21	5	+2	7
23	East Fife	5	+1	7
24	Forfar Athletic	5	−2	7
25	Berwick Rangers	5	−5	7
26	Dumbarton	5	−5	7
27	Stranraer	5	+1	6
28	Rangers U21	5	+1	6
29	Clachnacuddin	5	−2	4
30	Kilmarnock II	5	−5	4
31	Banks O' Dee	5	−8	4
32	Fraserburgh	5	−13	4
33	Clyde	5	−8	3
34	Dundee United II	5	−8	3
35	Cumbernauld Colts	5	−9	2
36	Gala Fairydean Rovers	5	−12	2
37	Cowdenbeath	5	−8	0
38	Dundee II	5	−9	0
39	Hibernian U21	5	−10	0
40	Motherwell U21	5	−14	0