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Annan Athletic v Alloa Athletic

Annan Athletic

0–0Full time

Alloa Athletic

Challenge Cup · TUE 13 OCT · Galabank

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Annan Athletic 0–0 Alloa Athletic ALLOA ATHLETIC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alloa Athletic win~~54%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.933

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.789

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alloa Athletic win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Alloa Athletic was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 23–23–54
1′KICK-OFF Annan Athletic v Alloa Athletic
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Alloa Athletic win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
45′HALF-TIME Annan Athletic 0–0 Alloa Athletic
45′SECOND HALF Annan Athletic 0–0 Alloa Athletic
46′We said Alloa Athletic at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 21–36–42
53′We said Alloa Athletic at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 20–41–39
55′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 21–36–43
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Alloa Athletic win 38%)
62′We said Alloa Athletic at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 18–48–34
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Alloa Athletic win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
FTFULL TIME Annan Athletic 0–0 Alloa Athletic
FTAnnan Athletic 0–0 Alloa Athletic · Alloa Athletic win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

Annan Athletic win22%

Draw23%

Alloa Athletic win54%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

VenueGalabank

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Annan Athletic

Alloa Athletic

17Days since last match17

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Alloa Athletic	5	+7	11
20	Annan Athletic	5	+4	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alloa athletic winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

54% The market42%

Us54%

~~Market~~42%

We make Alloa Athletic a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · alloa athletic win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Annan Athletic win	22%	31%	−8
Draw	23%	28%	−4
Alloa Athletic win	54%	42%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	57%	50%	+7
Both teams to score	57%	54%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	74%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	35%	29%	+6
Annan Athletic or draw	46%	58%	−13
Annan Athletic clean sheet	16%	–	–
Alloa Athletic clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.4 9.1 8.8 5.4 2.5 1 5.3 10.9 9.8 6.1 2.8 2 3.2 5.9 5.5 3.4 3 2.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Annan Athletic down, Alloa Athletic across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Annan Athletic play in the League Two, Alloa Athletic in the League One.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Annan Athletic are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Annan Athletic, 1.86 for Alloa Athletic. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Challenge Cup since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Challenge Cup

ANNAN ATHLETIC

LLDWDW0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

ALLOA ATHLETIC

LWWDWD2–3 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Clydebank	5	+9	13
2	Ross County	5	+22	12
3	Airdrie United	5	+12	12
4	Elgin City	5	+12	12
5	Cove Rangers	5	+11	12
6	Peterhead	5	+7	12
7	Alloa Athletic	5	+7	11
8	Queen of the South	5	+7	11
9	East Kilbride	5	+5	10
10	Stirling Albion	5	+4	10
11	Edinburgh City	5	+2	10
12	St. Mirren U21	5	+6	9
13	Hamilton Academical	5	+5	9
14	Montrose	5	+4	9
15	Celtic II	5	+3	9
16	Formartine United	5	+3	9
17	Kelty Hearts	5	+1	9
18	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	5	−2	9
19	Hearts U21	5	−11	9
20	Annan Athletic	5	+4	8
21	Spartans	5	+2	8
22	Aberdeen U21	5	+2	7
23	East Fife	5	+1	7
24	Forfar Athletic	5	−2	7
25	Berwick Rangers	5	−5	7
26	Dumbarton	5	−5	7
27	Stranraer	5	+1	6
28	Rangers U21	5	+1	6
29	Clachnacuddin	5	−2	4
30	Kilmarnock II	5	−5	4
31	Banks O' Dee	5	−8	4
32	Fraserburgh	5	−13	4
33	Clyde	5	−8	3
34	Dundee United II	5	−8	3
35	Cumbernauld Colts	5	−9	2
36	Gala Fairydean Rovers	5	−12	2
37	Cowdenbeath	5	−8	0
38	Dundee II	5	−9	0
39	Hibernian U21	5	−10	0
40	Motherwell U21	5	−14	0