NEOM v Abha prediction · Pro League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

NEOM 2–0 Abha NEOM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said NEOM win~~56%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.285

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.234

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said NEOM win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: NEOM was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–24–20
1′KICK-OFF NEOM v Abha
16′A goal for NEOM on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–6
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' NEOM 1–0 Abha
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' NEOM win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
17′We published NEOM at 56%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–14–6
24′Nathan Zeze scores for NEOM on 19′. 1–0 · 80–14–6
25′GOAL DISALLOWED · 20' Nathan Zeze · NEOM
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 80–14–5
45′HALF-TIME NEOM 1–0 Abha
47′SECOND HALF NEOM 1–0 Abha
51′Alexandre Lacazette scores for NEOM on 50′. 1–0 · 82–15–3
51′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Khaled Al Shamrani · Abha
54′We published NEOM at 56%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 50' NEOM 2–0 Abha · Alexandre Lacazette (assist Saïd Benrahma)
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' NEOM win: 56% at kick-off, 97% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Abha · On: Alimani Gory · Off: Michy Batshuayi
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Abha · On: Safwan Al Johani · Off: Khaled Al Shamrani
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Abha · On: Nabil Fekir · Off: Firas Al-Ghamdi
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Abha · On: Majed Dawran · Off: Mohammed Al-Dosari
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' NEOM · On: Mohannad Abu Taha · Off: Georgios Masouras
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' NEOM · On: Abbas Al Hassan · Off: Abdulmalik Al-Oyayari
80′We published NEOM at 56%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Safwan Al Johani · Abha
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' NEOM · On: Haroune Camara · Off: Khalil Al-Absi
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' NEOM · On: Muhanad Al Saad · Off: Saïd Benrahma
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Abha · On: Kheshim Al Qahtani · Off: Abdullah Al Fahad
FTFULL TIME NEOM 2–0 Abha
FTNEOM 2–0 Abha · NEOM win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

NEOM are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NEOM 56%, draw 24%, Abha 20%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on NEOM v AbhaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

NEOM win56%

Draw24%

Abha win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueKing Khalid Sport City Stadium

Line-ups

NEOM

4-4-2

Abha

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NEOM

Abha

4Days since last match8

Last match: 20 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 16 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

4Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	NEOM	10	+5	16
18	Abha	8	−9	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

NEOM

4-4-2

81 Luís Maximiano

4 Khalifah Al Dawsari

5 M. Sarr

44 N. Zézé

27 Islam Hawsawi

14 Khalil Al Absi

23 V. Vada

15 Abdulmalik Al Oyayari

10 S. Benrahma

7 G. Masouras

91 A. Lacazette

Coach · C. Galtier

Substitutes

19 · Mohannad Abu Taha

Abha

5-4-1

16 D. Léon

23 Mohammed Al Dossary

3 J. Gaari

12 K. Al Shamrani

19 Abdullah Al Fahad

37 Abdulbasit Al-Hindi

17 Abdulkarim Darisi

8 Nasser Al Daajani

7 Firas Al-Ghamdi

14 G. Nkoudou

44 M. Batshuayi

Coach · D. Burić

Substitutes

11 · A. Gory

10 · N. Fekir

29 · Majed Dawran

9 · Kamil Boumedmed

20 · K. Al Qahtani

28 · Bader Al Mutairi

21 · A. Al Bouq

80 · Safwan Saud

6 · Faisal Al Subiani

Our number · neom winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 04:12 · locked at kick-off

56% The market61%

Us56%

~~Market~~61%

We make NEOM a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NEOM v Abha~~1.81 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 25 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 2~~6 v 18

~~The market · NEOM win~~61% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · NEOM win The market, margin stripped

Published at 57%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NEOM win	56%	61%	−5
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Abha win	20%	17%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	52%	55%	−3
Both teams to score	51%	53%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	77%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	34%	−4
NEOM or draw	80%	83%	−3
NEOM clean sheet	39%	–	–
Abha clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 7.1 5.6 3.0 1 10.9 11.3 5.2 2 10.2 9.5 4.6 3 6.1 5.7 2.7 4 2.9 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NEOM down, Abha across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,489 Pro League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NEOM at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Abha away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for NEOM, 0.96 for Abha. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NEO 2–2 ABH · ABH 0–2 NEO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 25 Aug

NEOM

WWWDLL3–0 · 2–0 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

ABHA

DLLLDL1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	10	+21	27
2	Al-Nassr	10	+15	25
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	11	+14	25
4	Al-Ittihad FC	10	+10	23
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	10	+14	21
6	NEOM	10	+5	16
7	Al-Ettifaq	10	−2	15
8	Al Diriyah	11	−2	15
9	Al Kholood	9	−4	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	11	−7	12
11	Al Shabab	10	0	11
12	Al-Hazm	11	−4	10
13	Al Riyadh	9	−9	9
14	Al-Fayha	11	−7	8
15	Al-Faisaly FC	10	−9	7
16	Al-Fateh	11	−13	6
17	Al Taawon	10	−13	4
18	Abha	8	−9	2