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Al Taawon v Al-Qadisiyah FC

Al Taawon
0–1Full time
Al-Qadisiyah FC

Pro League · TUE 20 OCT · Al-Taawoun Stadium

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 19:01
Al Taawon 0–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC AL-QADISIYAH FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al-Qadisiyah FC win54%
The market said65%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.317
The market’s Brier score0.186

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Qadisiyah FC win at 54%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Al-Qadisiyah FC 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 22–24–54
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Al Taawon v Al-Qadisiyah FC
  4. 7′SUBSTITUTION · 7' Al Taawon · On: Nasser Al-Haleel · Off: Muteb Al-Mufarrij
  5. 15′SUBSTITUTION · 14' Al Taawon · On: Mohammed Bassam Al Hurayji · Off: Abdulrahman Hendi
  6. 26′8 shots for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 22–29–49
  7. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Al-Qadisiyah FC win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Al Taawon 0–0 Al-Qadisiyah FC
  9. 46′We said Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 21–37–42
  10. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al Taawon · On: Rakan Al Tulayhi · Off: Younes El Bahraoui
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Al Taawon 0–0 Al-Qadisiyah FC
  12. 52′12 shots for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 20–40–40
  13. 53′We said Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 20–41–39
  14. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 20–43–38
  15. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Al-Qadisiyah FC win 40%)
  16. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Al-Qadisiyah FC · On: Musab Al-Juwayr · Off: Mohammed Hamad Al-Qahtani
  17. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Al-Qadisiyah FC · On: Mateo Retegui · Off: Abdullah Al-Salem
  18. 61′We said Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 18–47–34
  19. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Al-Qadisiyah FC win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
  20. 69′We said Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 16–56–28
  21. 73′Al-Qadisiyah FC have had 17 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 14–62–25
  22. 74′We said Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 13–63–24
  23. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Al-Qadisiyah FC win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
  24. 78′We said Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 11–70–19
  25. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Al Taawon · On: Awn Al-Saluli · Off: Nasser Al-Haleel
  26. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Al Taawon · On: Nedim Bajrami · Off: Mohammed Al-Kuwaykibi
  27. 82′We said Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 8–78–14
  28. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Al-Qadisiyah FC win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
  29. 86′We said Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 5–85–9
  30. 89′20 shots for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 4–89–7
  31. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Al-Qadisiyah FC · On: Turki Al-Ammar · Off: Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat
  32. 92′We said Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 2–94–4
  33. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Al-Qadisiyah FC win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
  34. 97′Tijjani Reijnders scores for Al-Qadisiyah FC on 90′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–1–99
  35. 97′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Al Taawon 0–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC · Tijjani Reijnders
  36. 97′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+7' Al-Qadisiyah FC win: 54% at kick-off, 99% now
  37. 97′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+7' Al-Qadisiyah FC win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 97%)
  38. 98′We said Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–1 · 0–1–99
  39. FTFULL TIME Al Taawon 0–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC
  40. FTAl Taawon 0–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC · Al-Qadisiyah FC win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Qadisiyah FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Taawon 22%, draw 24%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 54%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Al Taawon v Al-Qadisiyah FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Al Taawon win22%
Draw24%
Al-Qadisiyah FC win54%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 16:10

RoundMatchday 10

VenueAl-Taawoun Stadium

Line-ups

Al Taawon

5-4-1

Al-Qadisiyah FC

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Taawon

Al-Qadisiyah FC

3Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 16 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Al-Qadisiyah FC9+1422
17Al Taawon9−124

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Taawon

5-4-1

1 Mailson

70 A. Hendi

40 Ibrahim Mahnashi

5 Z. Belaïd

32 Muteb Al Mufarrij

88 M. Petkov

7 Mohammed Al Kuwaykibi

16 Faris Al Ghamdi

18 A. El Mahdioui

47 Y. El Bahraoui

9 A. Hamed Allah

Coach · V. Rašović

Substitutes

6 · Mohammed Bassam Al Hurayji

4 · Nasser Al Haleel

17 · Mohammed Al Aqel

30 · Abdullah Al Jadani

45 · Mohammed Al Saedi

93 · Awn Al Saluli

23 · Rakan Al Tulayhi

10 · N. Bajrami

8 · P. Guiagon

Al-Qadisiyah FC

3-5-2

1 K. Casteels

4 Jehad Abdullatif Ahm

17 G. Álvarez

8 N. Nández

2 Mohammed Abu Al Shamat

14 T. Reijnders

5 J. Weigl

15 Mohammed Al Qahtani

22 C. Bonsu Baah

33 J. Quiñones

9 Abdullah Al Salem

Coach · Brendan Rodgers

Substitutes

7 · Turki Al Ammar

18 · Abdulmalik Al-Jaber

10 · Musab Al Juwayr

28 · Ahmed Al Kassar

12 · Yasir Al Shahrani

35 · A. Al Siyahi

27 · E. Houssa

32 · M. Retegui

42 · Abdulaziz Tariq Al Qarawi

Our number · al-qadisiyah fc winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 17 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off
54% The market65%
Us54%
Market65%

We make Al-Qadisiyah FC a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Al Taawon v Al-Qadisiyah FC1.11 – 1.85
Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 28 AugW0 D2 L4 · W5 D1 L0
Table places · points 4 v 2217 v 2
The market · Al-Qadisiyah FC win65% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 15:40
Our probability · Al-Qadisiyah FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Al Taawon win22%15%+7
Draw24%20%+4
Al-Qadisiyah FC win54%65%−11
Over 2.5 goals56%63%−7
Both teams to score57%58%−1
Over 1.5 goals80%82%−2
Over 3.5 goals34%43%−9
Al Taawon or draw46%35%+11
Al Taawon clean sheet16%––
Al-Qadisiyah FC clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%
0123450 6.0 9.1 8.9 5.5 2.6 1 5.2 11.2 9.7 6.0 2.8 2 3.2 5.8 5.3 3.3 3 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Al Taawon down, Al-Qadisiyah FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.17
Over 2.52 of 6
Both scored1 of 6
Last meetingsALQ 1–1 ALT · ALT 2–0 ALQ · ALT 0–1 ALQ · ALQ 0–3 ALT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 28 Aug

AL TAAWON

LDLLLD1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–6 · 0–3 · 1–1

AL-QADISIYAH FC

WWWDWW3–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 3–3 · 5–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Al-Hilal Saudi FC9+2024
2Al-Qadisiyah FC9+1422
3Al-Nassr8+1219
4Al-Ahli Jeddah9+1118
5Al-Ittihad FC8+517
6NEOM9+616
7Al-Ettifaq9+115
8Al Diriyah9−112
9Al Kholood9−412
10Al Khaleej Saihat10−412
11Al-Hazm10−49
12Al Riyadh8−89
13Al Shabab9−28
14Al-Faisaly FC9−77
15Al-Fayha10−77
16Al-Fateh10−116
17Al Taawon9−124
18Abha8−92

The competition's standings before kick-off.