Al Shabab v Al Taawon prediction · Pro League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Al Shabab 3–0 Al Taawon AL SHABAB WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Shabab win~~39%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.555

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.505

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Shabab win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al Shabab 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–34
19′Abdullah Matuq scores for Al Shabab on 18′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 67–20–13
22′We said Al Shabab at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–20–12
30′Abdullah Matuq scores for Al Shabab on 18′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–21–11
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–11
34′Al Shabab are down to ten from 33′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 69–21–10
37′We said Al Shabab at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–10
41′Al Shabab are down to ten from 33′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 70–21–9
44′We said Al Shabab at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–21–8
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 71–21–8
45′45′ and it is 2–0: Ricardo Mathias on the scoresheet for Al Shabab. 2–0 · 92–6–2
45′We said Al Shabab at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
58′We said Al Shabab at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
83′We said Al Shabab at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Al Shabab win: 39% at kick-off, 92% now
89′Al Shabab ahead on 85′ through Yannick Carrasco. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Al Shabab win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Al Shabab · On: Ali Al-Asmari · Off: Yacine Adli Corrected
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Al Shabab win: 39% at kick-off, 92% now
90′Al Shabab ahead on 85′ through Yannick Carrasco. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Al Shabab win: 39% at kick-off, 92% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Al Shabab win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Al Shabab 3–0 Al Taawon
FTAl Shabab 3–0 Al Taawon · Al Shabab win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Al Shabab win39%

Draw27%

Al Taawon win34%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:00

VenueSHG Arena

Line-ups

Al Shabab

4-4-2

Al Taawon

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Al Shabab

Al Taawon

29Days since last match29

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Al Shabab	7	−5	4
16	Al Taawon	7	−9	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Al Shabab

4-4-2

1 M. Diaw

17 M. Al Thani

4 T. Jedvaj

55 A. Al Bulayhi

12 S. Al Anzi

37 A. Matuq

8 J. Brownhill

29 Y. Adli

10 Y. Carrasco

9 R. B. Martinez Tobinson

49 Ricardo Mathias

Coach · Thomas Letsch

Substitutes

33 · M. Al Mahasneh

27 · A. Al Hawsawi

21 · D. Al Anazi

2 · M. Al Shwirekh

3 · M. T. Barry

40 · A. Al Asmari

6 · A. Al Nashri

97 · M. Khadhari

99 · H. Al Khorayef

Al Taawon

4-2-3-1

1 Mailson

40 I. Mahnashi

5 Z. Belaid

32 M. Al Mufarrij

88 M. Petkov

16 F. Al Ghamdi

18 A. El Mahdioui

7 M. Al Kuwaykibi

10 N. Bajrami

8 P. Guiagon

9 A. Hamdallah

Coach · Jehad Al Hussain

Substitutes

30 · A. Al Jadani

4 · N. Al Haleel

93 · A. Al Saluli

6 · B. Al Hurayji

23 · R. Al Tulayhi

45 · M. Al Saedi

70 · A. Hendi

47 · Y. El Bahraoui

17 · S. M. Al Aqel M.

Our number · al shabab winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

39% The market42%

Us39%

~~Market~~42%

We make Al Shabab a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al shabab win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Shabab win	39%	42%	−3
Draw	27%	25%	+1
Al Taawon win	34%	33%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	52%	60%	−9
Both teams to score	56%	63%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	76%	81%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	30%	40%	−10
Al Shabab or draw	66%	67%	−1
Al Shabab clean sheet	27%	–	–
Al Taawon clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.3 7.8 5.5 2.4 1 8.6 12.6 7.8 3.4 2 6.6 8.5 5.6 2.5 3 3.2 4.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Shabab down, Al Taawon across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,467 Pro League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Shabab at home: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al Taawon away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Al Shabab, 1.31 for Al Taawon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALS 1–5 ALT · ALT 2–0 ALS · ALT 2–2 ALS · ALS 1–0 ALT

Form · last six in Pro League

AL SHABAB

DDDLLD0–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

AL TAAWON

LDLDLL2–3 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	8	+19	21
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	8	+13	19
3	Al-Nassr	8	+12	19
4	Al-Ittihad FC	8	+5	17
5	NEOM	8	+7	16
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	8	+10	15
7	Al-Ettifaq	8	0	12
8	Al Kholood	8	−3	12
9	Al Diriyah	8	−1	11
10	Al-Hazm	8	−2	9
11	Al Riyadh	7	−8	8
12	Al-Fayha	7	−4	6
13	Al Khaleej Saihat	8	−7	6
14	Al Shabab	7	−5	4
15	Al-Faisaly FC	7	−8	3
16	Al Taawon	7	−9	3
17	Al-Fateh	8	−11	3
18	Abha	7	−8	2