Al Shabab v Al-Ahli Jeddah prediction · Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al ShababDrawAl-Ahli Jeddah

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Al-Ahli Jeddah 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Ahli Jeddah are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Shabab 23%, draw 23%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 54%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Al Shabab v Al-Ahli JeddahBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Al Shabab win23%

Draw23%

Al-Ahli Jeddah win54%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueAl-Shabab Club Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Shabab

Al-Ahli Jeddah

8Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 23 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	10	+14	21
12	Al Shabab	10	0	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-ahli jeddah winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Al-Ahli Jeddah a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Shabab v Al-Ahli Jeddah~~1.19 – 1.95

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 21~~12 v 5

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Shabab win	23%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Al-Ahli Jeddah win	54%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Al Shabab or draw	46%	–	–
Al Shabab clean sheet	15%	–	–
Al-Ahli Jeddah clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.0 8.0 8.2 5.3 2.6 1 4.7 10.5 9.6 6.2 3.1 2 3.1 5.9 5.7 3.7 3 2.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Shabab down, Al-Ahli Jeddah across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,492 Pro League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.44 goals a meeting; 6 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Shabab at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Al Shabab, 1.95 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.44

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ALS 2–5 ALA · ALA 1–1 ALS · ALS 3–1 ALA · ALA 3–2 ALS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 4 Sept

AL SHABAB

LLDWDW0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 3–1

AL-AHLI JEDDAH

WLWWWW5–0 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	10	+21	27
2	Al-Nassr	10	+15	25
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	11	+14	25
4	Al-Ittihad FC	10	+10	23
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	10	+14	21
6	NEOM	11	+7	19
7	Al-Ettifaq	11	+1	18
8	Al Diriyah	11	−2	15
9	Al Kholood	10	−7	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	11	−7	12
11	Al Riyadh	10	−8	12
12	Al Shabab	10	0	11
13	Al-Hazm	11	−4	10
14	Al-Fayha	11	−7	8
15	Al-Faisaly FC	10	−9	7
16	Al-Fateh	11	−13	6
17	Al Taawon	11	−14	4
18	Abha	9	−11	2