Al Riyadh v Al Taawon prediction · Pro League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41

Al Riyadh 2–1 Al Taawon AL TAAWON WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Taawon win~~45%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.797

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.681

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Taawon win at 45%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Al Taawon 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 28–27–45
2′KICK-OFF Al Riyadh v Al Taawon
15′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Mohammed Bassam Al Hurayji · Al Taawon
18′SUBSTITUTION · 17' Al Riyadh · On: Hassan Hashim Al-Ali · Off: Hussain Al Shurafa
40′We said Al Taawon at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 63–25–13
40′Al Riyadh ahead on 39′ through Teddy Okou. 1–0. 1–0 · 63–25–13
40′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 63–25–13
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Al Riyadh 1–0 Al Taawon
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Al Taawon win: 45% at kick-off, 13% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Al Riyadh win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Al Taawon win 38%)
45′HALF-TIME Al Riyadh 1–0 Al Taawon
46′SECOND HALF Al Riyadh 1–0 Al Taawon
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al Taawon · On: Younes El Bahraoui · Off: Mohammed Bassam Al Hurayji
47′Abderrazak Hamdallah scores for Al Taawon on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 24–41–35
47′⚽ GOAL · 45' Al Riyadh 1–1 Al Taawon · Abderrazak Hamdallah
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Al Taawon win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Al Riyadh win 65%)
50′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45+5' Al Taawon
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+5' Al Taawon win: 45% at kick-off, 10% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+5' Al Riyadh win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 43%)
51′We said Al Taawon at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–24–9
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Al Taawon win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
67′We said Al Taawon at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–20–4
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Al Riyadh · On: Fahad Mohammed Al-Jayzani · Off: Awad Dahal
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Al Taawon · On: Rakan Al Tulayhi · Off: Mohammed Al-Kuwaykibi
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Al Taawon · On: Mohammed Al Saedi · Off: Nasser Al-Haleel
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Al Taawon · On: Nedim Bajrami · Off: Parfait Guiagon
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Al Riyadh 2–0 Al Taawon
77′Bernard Mensah scores for Al Riyadh on 76′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
79′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 85–13–1
79′78′: Nedim Bajrami on the scoresheet for Al Taawon, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 85–13–1
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Al Riyadh 2–1 Al Taawon
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Al Riyadh · On: Osama Al-Boardi · Off: Teddy Okou
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Al Taawon · On: Mohammed Al-Aqel · Off: Faris Al-Ghamdi
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Ibrahim Mohannashi · Al Taawon
FTFULL TIME Al Riyadh 2–1 Al Taawon
FTAl Riyadh 2–1 Al Taawon · Al Taawon win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Taawon are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Riyadh 28%, draw 27%, Al Taawon 45%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Al Riyadh v Al TaawonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Al Riyadh win28%

Draw27%

Al Taawon win45%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSHG Arena

Line-ups

Al Riyadh

4-4-2

Al Taawon

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Riyadh

Al Taawon

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Al Riyadh	9	−9	9
17	Al Taawon	10	−13	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Riyadh

4-4-2

82 M. Borjan

32 Awad Dahal

5 Hossam Majrashi

26 R. Abascal

23 Hussain Qasim

43 B. Mensah

6 K. Keita

22 V. Lekhal

10 T. Okou

7 Trézéguet

19 A. M. Al Harthi

Coach · Maurício Dulac

Substitutes

11 · H. Al Ali

79 · F. Al Jayzani

76 · Ahmed Al Anazi

3 · Y. M. Al Musa

17 · Hussain Al-Raqwani

20 · Battal Al Harthi

12 · Sulaiman Hazazi

28 · J. Petek

13 · Osama Al Bowardi

Al Taawon

5-4-1

1 Mailson

6 Mohammed Bassam Al Hurayji

40 Ibrahim Mahnashi

5 Z. Belaïd

4 Nasser Al Haleel

88 M. Petkov

7 Mohammed Al Kuwaykibi

16 Faris Al Ghamdi

18 A. El Mahdioui

8 P. Guiagon

9 A. Hamed Allah

Coach · V. Rašović

Substitutes

30 · Abdullah Al Jadani

93 · Awn Al Saluli

87 · Ali Ahmed Ali Halawi Sharahili

23 · Rakan Al Tulayhi

45 · Mohammed Al Saedi

10 · N. Bajrami

47 · Y. El Bahraoui

17 · Mohammed Al Aqel

63 · Adel Sami Fallatah

Our number · al taawon winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

45% The market39%

Us45%

~~Market~~39%

We make Al Taawon a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Riyadh v Al Taawon~~1.10 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 4~~13 v 17

~~The market · Al Taawon win~~39% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Taawon win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Riyadh win	28%	33%	−5
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Al Taawon win	45%	39%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	47%	50%	−3
Both teams to score	52%	55%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	73%	0
Over 3.5 goals	26%	29%	−3
Al Riyadh or draw	55%	61%	−6
Al Riyadh clean sheet	23%	–	–
Al Taawon clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.4 10.7 8.3 4.1 1 7.9 12.8 8.9 4.4 2 4.6 6.7 4.9 2.4 3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Riyadh down, Al Taawon across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,489 Pro League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Riyadh at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al Taawon away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Al Riyadh, 1.47 for Al Taawon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALT 1–1 ALR · ALR 1–3 ALT · ALT 3–2 ALR · ALR 1–0 ALT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 28 Aug

AL RIYADH

WLDWDL1–0 · 0–5 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

AL TAAWON

DLLLDL0–0 · 0–1 · 0–6 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	10	+21	27
2	Al-Nassr	10	+15	25
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	11	+14	25
4	Al-Ittihad FC	10	+10	23
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	10	+14	21
6	NEOM	10	+5	16
7	Al-Ettifaq	10	−2	15
8	Al Diriyah	11	−2	15
9	Al Kholood	9	−4	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	11	−7	12
11	Al Shabab	10	0	11
12	Al-Hazm	11	−4	10
13	Al Riyadh	9	−9	9
14	Al-Fayha	11	−7	8
15	Al-Faisaly FC	10	−9	7
16	Al-Fateh	11	−13	6
17	Al Taawon	10	−13	4
18	Abha	8	−9	2