Al Riyadh v Al-Qadisiyah FC prediction · Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al RiyadhDrawAl-Qadisiyah FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Al-Qadisiyah FC 68%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Qadisiyah FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Riyadh 13%, draw 19%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 68%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Al Riyadh v Al-Qadisiyah FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Riyadh win13%

Draw19%

Al-Qadisiyah FC win68%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenuePrince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Riyadh

Al-Qadisiyah FC

5Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 23 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	11	+14	25
13	Al Riyadh	9	−9	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-qadisiyah fc winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

68% The market–

Us68%

We make Al-Qadisiyah FC a 68% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–2.3, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Riyadh v Al-Qadisiyah FC~~0.91 – 2.29

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 25~~13 v 3

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Riyadh win	13%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Al-Qadisiyah FC win	68%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Al Riyadh or draw	32%	–	–
Al Riyadh clean sheet	10%	–	–
Al-Qadisiyah FC clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.6%

0123450 4.7 9.0 10.6 8.1 4.7 2.21 3.4 8.9 9.5 7.2 4.2 2 3.9 4.3 3.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Riyadh down, Al-Qadisiyah FC across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,489 Pro League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Riyadh at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 3.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.91 goals for Al Riyadh, 2.29 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALR 0–4 ALQ · ALQ 4–0 ALR · ALQ 1–0 ALR · ALR 2–1 ALQ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 4 Sept

AL RIYADH

LDWDLW0–5 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

AL-QADISIYAH FC

WDWWWL3–2 · 3–3 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	10	+21	27
2	Al-Nassr	10	+15	25
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	11	+14	25
4	Al-Ittihad FC	10	+10	23
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	10	+14	21
6	NEOM	10	+5	16
7	Al-Ettifaq	10	−2	15
8	Al Diriyah	11	−2	15
9	Al Kholood	9	−4	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	11	−7	12
11	Al Shabab	10	0	11
12	Al-Hazm	11	−4	10
13	Al Riyadh	9	−9	9
14	Al-Fayha	11	−7	8
15	Al-Faisaly FC	10	−9	7
16	Al-Fateh	11	−13	6
17	Al Taawon	10	−13	4
18	Abha	8	−9	2