Al Riyadh v Al-Hilal Saudi FC prediction · Pro League

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · postponed

Al-Hilal Saudi FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Riyadh 8%, draw 15%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 77%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Al Riyadh v Al-Hilal Saudi FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · postponed, not graded

Al Riyadh win8%

Draw15%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC win77%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenuePrince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Riyadh

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

5Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 13 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-hilal saudi fc winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · postponed, not graded

77% The market82%

Us77%

~~Market~~82%

We make Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 77% chance to win. The market has them at 82%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–2.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Riyadh v Al-Hilal Saudi FC~~0.84 – 2.80

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 25 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 21~~12 v 1

~~The market · Al-Hilal Saudi FC win~~82% · ours 77%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Hilal Saudi FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 82% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Riyadh win	8%	6%	+2
Draw	15%	12%	+3
Al-Hilal Saudi FC win	77%	82%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	70%	70%	0
Both teams to score	53%	47%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	88%	86%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	49%	50%	−1
Al Riyadh or draw	23%	18%	+5
Al Riyadh clean sheet	6%	–	–
Al-Hilal Saudi FC clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.2%

0123450 3.2 7.1 10.2 9.5 6.6 3.81 6.6 8.5 7.8 5.5 3.12 2.7 3.6 3.3 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Riyadh down, Al-Hilal Saudi FC across0–5 goals a side shown (93.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,472 Pro League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Riyadh at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 3.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.84 goals for Al Riyadh, 2.80 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALR 1–1 ALH · ALH 2–0 ALR · ALH 1–1 ALR · ALR 0–3 ALH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 25 Aug

AL RIYADH

DWLDWD3–3 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

AL-HILAL SAUDI FC

WWWLWW5–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 6–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	8	+19	21
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	8	+13	19
3	Al-Nassr	8	+12	19
4	Al-Ittihad FC	8	+5	17
5	NEOM	8	+7	16
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	8	+10	15
7	Al-Ettifaq	8	0	12
8	Al Kholood	9	−4	12
9	Al Diriyah	8	−1	11
10	Al-Hazm	9	−3	9
11	Al Khaleej Saihat	9	−5	9
12	Al Riyadh	8	−8	9
13	Al Shabab	8	−2	7
14	Al-Fayha	9	−6	7
15	Al-Faisaly FC	8	−7	6
16	Al-Fateh	9	−10	6
17	Al Taawon	8	−12	3
18	Abha	7	−8	2