Al-Qadisiyah FC v Abha prediction · Pro League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 16:59

Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–1 Abha AL-QADISIYAH FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Qadisiyah FC win~~79%

~~The market said~~85%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.065

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.036

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Qadisiyah FC win at 79%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al-Qadisiyah FC was 79% before kick-off and our model makes it 81% now. 0–0 · 81–12–7
1′KICK-OFF Al-Qadisiyah FC v Abha
5′PENALTY MISSED · 5' Mateo Retegui · Al-Qadisiyah FC
7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Julian Weigl · Al-Qadisiyah FC
28′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Al-Qadisiyah FC · On: Yasir Al-Shahrani · Off: Ali Badra Diabaté
30′30′: Mateo Retegui on the scoresheet for Al-Qadisiyah FC. 0–0 · 72–19–9
31′We published Al-Qadisiyah FC at 79%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–7–2
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.8 we expected. 1–0 · 91–7–2
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–0 Abha · Mateo Retegui
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Al-Qadisiyah FC win: 79% at kick-off, 91% now
45′HALF-TIME Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–0 Abha
46′SECOND HALF Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–0 Abha
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Nabil Fekir · Abha
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Abha · On: Safwan Al Johani · Off: Khaled Al Shamrani
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Abha · On: Nasser Al Daajani · Off: Nabil Fekir
69′Al-Qadisiyah FC ahead on 69′ through Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
69′We published Al-Qadisiyah FC at 79%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–0 Abha · Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Al-Qadisiyah FC win: 79% at kick-off, 99% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Al-Qadisiyah FC · On: Abdullah Al-Salem · Off: Musab Al-Juwayr
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Al-Qadisiyah FC · On: Turki Al-Ammar · Off: Christopher Bonsu Baah
73′We published Al-Qadisiyah FC at 79%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Al-Qadisiyah FC 3–0 Abha
74′GOAL DISALLOWED · 74' Al-Qadisiyah FC
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Abha · On: Alimani Gory · Off: Georges-Kévin N'Koudou
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Abha · On: Amar Al-Yuhaybi · Off: Mohammed Al-Dosari
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Abha · On: Bader Al Mutairi · Off: Firas Al-Ghamdi
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Al-Qadisiyah FC · On: Eyad Housa · Off: Nahitan Nández
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Al-Qadisiyah FC · On: Mohammed Hamad Al-Qahtani · Off: Mateo Retegui
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Turki Al-Ammar · Al-Qadisiyah FC
95′Alimani Gory scores for Abha on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–1 Abha · Alimani Gory
FTFULL TIME Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–1 Abha
FTAl-Qadisiyah FC 2–1 Abha · Al-Qadisiyah FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Qadisiyah FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Qadisiyah FC 79%, draw 13%, Abha 7%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Al-Qadisiyah FC v AbhaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Al-Qadisiyah FC win79%

Draw13%

Abha win7%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 14:15

RoundMatchday 9

VenuePrince Mohammed Bin Fahd Stadium

Line-ups

Al-Qadisiyah FC

3-5-2

Abha

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Qadisiyah FC

Abha

4Days since last match33

Last match: 12 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

Last match: 13 Sept · the Saudi Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	8	+13	19
18	Abha	7	−8	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Qadisiyah FC

3-5-2

1 K. Casteels

4 Jehad Abdullatif Ahm

17 G. Álvarez

26 Badra Diabbate Ali

2 Mohammed Abu Al Shamat

8 N. Nández

5 J. Weigl

14 T. Reijnders

22 C. Bonsu Baah

32 M. Retegui

10 Musab Al Juwayr

Coach · Brendan Rodgers

Substitutes

27 · E. Houssa

42 · Abdulaziz Al Elewai

7 · Turki Al Ammar

18 · Abdulmalik Al-Jaber

28 · Ahmed Al Kassar

15 · Mohammed Al Qahtani

9 · Abdullah Al Salem

12 · Yasir Al Shahrani

35 · A. Al Siyahi

Abha

5-4-1

21 A. Al Bouq

23 Mohammed Al Dossary

3 J. Gaari

19 Abdullah Al Fahad

37 Abdulbasit Al-Hindi

12 K. Al Shamrani

17 Abdulkarim Darisi

10 N. Fekir

7 Firas Al-Ghamdi

14 G. Nkoudou

44 M. Batshuayi

Coach · D. Burić

Substitutes

28 · Bader Al Mutairi

20 · K. Al Qahtani

6 · Faisal Al Subiani

90 · Amar Al Yuhaybi

9 · Kamil Boumedmed

11 · A. Gory

26 · Mustafa Malayekah

8 · Nasser Al Daajani

80 · Safwan Saud

Our number · al-qadisiyah fc winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 16 Oct 13:10 · locked at kick-off

79% The market85%

Us79%

~~Market~~85%

We make Al-Qadisiyah FC a 79% chance to win. The market has them at 85%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 3.0–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Qadisiyah FC v Abha~~2.99 – 0.80

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 22 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 19 v 2~~2 v 18

~~The market · Al-Qadisiyah FC win~~85% · ours 79%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Qadisiyah FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 80%, 79% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 85% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Qadisiyah FC win	79%	85%	−6
Draw	13%	10%	+3
Abha win	7%	5%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	72%	76%	−4
Both teams to score	52%	50%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	89%	89%	0
Over 3.5 goals	52%	57%	−5
Al-Qadisiyah FC or draw	93%	95%	−2
Al-Qadisiyah FC clean sheet	45%	–	–
Abha clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.0%

0123450 2.9 1 6.7 6.1 2.3 2 10.0 7.9 3.2 3 9.7 7.6 3.1 4 7.2 5.6 2.2 5 4.5 3.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Qadisiyah FC down, Abha across0–5 goals a side shown (90.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,472 Pro League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Abha away: 0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.99 goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 0.80 for Abha. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 14:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 22 Aug

AL-QADISIYAH FC

WWWWDW2–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 3–3 · 5–0

ABHA

LDLLLD0–4 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	8	+19	21
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	8	+13	19
3	Al-Nassr	8	+12	19
4	Al-Ittihad FC	8	+5	17
5	NEOM	8	+7	16
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	8	+10	15
7	Al-Ettifaq	8	0	12
8	Al Kholood	9	−4	12
9	Al Diriyah	8	−1	11
10	Al-Hazm	9	−3	9
11	Al Khaleej Saihat	9	−5	9
12	Al Riyadh	8	−8	9
13	Al Shabab	8	−2	7
14	Al-Fayha	9	−6	7
15	Al-Faisaly FC	8	−7	6
16	Al-Fateh	9	−10	6
17	Al Taawon	8	−12	3
18	Abha	7	−8	2