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Model 1.2

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Al-Nassr v NEOM

Al-Nassr
1–0Full time
NEOM

Pro League · TUE 20 OCT · Al-Awwal Park

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 21:30
Al-Nassr 1–0 NEOM AL-NASSR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al-Nassr win67%
The market said65%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.164
The market’s Brier score0.187

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Nassr win at 67%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Al-Nassr 67% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–19–14
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Al-Nassr v NEOM
  4. 29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Mohammed Al-Dossari · NEOM
  5. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Al-Nassr win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
  6. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Georgios Masouras · NEOM
  7. 40′We said Al-Nassr at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 55%. 0–0 · 55–30–15
  8. 42′We said Al-Nassr at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–31–15
  9. 45′SECOND HALF Al-Nassr 0–0 NEOM
  10. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 45+5' Mohammed Al-Burayk · NEOM
  11. 51′We said Al-Nassr at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–36–15
  12. 51′Al-Nassr have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 53–32–15
  13. 51′HALF-TIME Al-Nassr 0–0 NEOM
  14. 51′PENALTY MISSED · 45+6' Cristiano Ronaldo · Al-Nassr
  15. 52′12 shots for Al-Nassr, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 49–36–15
  16. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.2 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 47–39–14
  17. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Al-Nassr win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
  18. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Mohannad Abu Taha · NEOM
  19. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' NEOM · On: Valentín Vada · Off: Abbas Al Hassan
  20. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' NEOM · On: Georgios Masouras · Off: Khalil Al-Absi
  21. 59′We said Al-Nassr at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–42–14
  22. 60′We said Al-Nassr at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–2
  23. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Al-Nassr 1–0 NEOM
  24. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Al-Nassr win: 67% at kick-off, 86% now
  25. 61′61′: Joao Felix on the scoresheet for Al-Nassr, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–2
  26. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Al-Nassr win: 67% at kick-off, 87% now
  27. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Samu Costa · Al-Nassr
  28. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Al-Nassr · On: Abdullah Al-Hamdan · Off: Angelo Borges
  29. 75′We said Al-Nassr at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  30. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' NEOM · On: Khalifah Al-Dawsari · Off: Mohannad Abu Taha
  31. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' NEOM · On: Haroune Camara · Off: Mohammed Al-Dossari
  32. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' NEOM · On: Faisal Al-Ghamdi · Off: Abdulmalik Al-Oyayari
  33. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Al-Nassr · On: Awad Aman · Off: Ayman Yahya
  34. 85′We said Al-Nassr at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  35. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Al-Nassr win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
  36. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Al-Nassr · On: Sami Al-Najei · Off: Joao Felix
  37. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Al-Nassr · On: Saad Haqawi · Off: Sadio Mané
  38. 95′1–0 at the end. Our 67% on Al-Nassr comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
  39. FTFULL TIME Al-Nassr 1–0 NEOM
  40. FTAl-Nassr 1–0 NEOM · Al-Nassr win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Nassr are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Nassr 67%, draw 19%, NEOM 14%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Al-Nassr v NEOMBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Al-Nassr win67%
Draw19%
NEOM win14%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueAl-Awwal Park

Line-ups

Al-Nassr

4-2-3-1

NEOM

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Nassr

NEOM

8Days since last match3

Last match: 12 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

Last match: 17 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Al-Nassr8+1219
6NEOM9+616

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Nassr

4-2-3-1

24 Bento

12 Nawaf Boushal

5 Abdulelah Al Amri

26 Íñigo Martínez

23 Ayman Yahya

11 Samú Costa

17 Abdullah Al Khaibari

20 Ângelo

79 João Félix

10 S. Mané

7 Cristiano Ronaldo

Coach · A. Postecoglou

Substitutes

14 · Sami Al Naji

9 · Abdullah Al Hamdan

22 · Abdulhadi Al Alwan

6 · Saad Al Nasser

70 · Awad Aman

60 · Saad Haqawi

50 · Majed Qasheesh

46 · Yassine Gays Munsif Sallem

8 · Hayder Abdulkareem

NEOM

3-4-3

1 M. Bułka

55 Muhammad Al Dosari

44 N. Zézé

5 M. Sarr

2 Mohammed Al Burayk

15 Abdulmalik Al Oyayari

6 A. Al Hassan

19 Mohannad Abu Taha

14 Khalil Al Absi

91 A. Lacazette

10 S. Benrahma

Coach · C. Galtier

Substitutes

23 · V. Vada

4 · Khalifah Al Dawsari

8 · Faisal Al Ghamdi

75 · Khalid Al Rammah

77 · Muhannad Al Saad

70 · Haroune Camara

33 · Abdulrahman Dagriri

27 · Islam Hawsawi

7 · G. Masouras

Our number · al-nassr winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
67% The market65%
Us67%
Market65%

We make Al-Nassr a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Al-Nassr v NEOM2.31 – 0.94
Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 25 AugW4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 19 v 163 v 6
The market · Al-Nassr win65% · ours 67%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 18:41
Our probability · Al-Nassr win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Al-Nassr win67%65%+2
Draw19%20%−1
NEOM win14%15%−1
Over 2.5 goals62%61%+1
Both teams to score55%55%0
Over 1.5 goals84%81%+3
Over 3.5 goals41%40%+1
Al-Nassr or draw86%85%+1
Al-Nassr clean sheet39%––
NEOM clean sheet10%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.3%
0123450 4.6 3.3 1 8.6 8.9 4.0 2 10.3 9.5 4.5 3 7.9 7.2 3.4 4 4.6 4.2 5 2.2
under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Nassr down, NEOM across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsALN 1–0 NEO · NEO 1–3 ALN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 25 Aug

AL-NASSR

WWLWDW3–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

NEOM

LWWWDL0–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Al-Hilal Saudi FC9+2024
2Al-Qadisiyah FC9+1422
3Al-Nassr8+1219
4Al-Ahli Jeddah9+1118
5Al-Ittihad FC8+517
6NEOM9+616
7Al-Ettifaq9+115
8Al Diriyah9−112
9Al Kholood9−412
10Al Khaleej Saihat10−412
11Al-Hazm10−49
12Al Riyadh8−89
13Al Shabab9−28
14Al-Faisaly FC9−77
15Al-Fayha10−77
16Al-Fateh10−116
17Al Taawon9−124
18Abha8−92

The competition's standings before kick-off.