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Al-Nassr v NEOM
Al-Nassr
NEOMPro League · TUE 20 OCT · Al-Awwal Park
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Nassr win at 67%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Al-Nassr 67% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–19–14
- 1′KICK-OFF Al-Nassr v NEOM
- 29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Mohammed Al-Dossari · NEOM
- 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Al-Nassr win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
- 35′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Georgios Masouras · NEOM
- 40′We said Al-Nassr at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 55%. 0–0 · 55–30–15
- 42′We said Al-Nassr at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–31–15
- 45′SECOND HALF Al-Nassr 0–0 NEOM
- 49′🟨 YELLOW · 45+5' Mohammed Al-Burayk · NEOM
- 51′We said Al-Nassr at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–36–15
- 51′Al-Nassr have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 53–32–15
- 51′HALF-TIME Al-Nassr 0–0 NEOM
- 51′PENALTY MISSED · 45+6' Cristiano Ronaldo · Al-Nassr
- 52′12 shots for Al-Nassr, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 49–36–15
- 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.2 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 47–39–14
- 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Al-Nassr win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
- 57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Mohannad Abu Taha · NEOM
- 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' NEOM · On: Valentín Vada · Off: Abbas Al Hassan
- 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' NEOM · On: Georgios Masouras · Off: Khalil Al-Absi
- 59′We said Al-Nassr at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–42–14
- 60′We said Al-Nassr at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–2
- 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Al-Nassr 1–0 NEOM
- 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Al-Nassr win: 67% at kick-off, 86% now
- 61′61′: Joao Felix on the scoresheet for Al-Nassr, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–2
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Al-Nassr win: 67% at kick-off, 87% now
- 65′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Samu Costa · Al-Nassr
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Al-Nassr · On: Abdullah Al-Hamdan · Off: Angelo Borges
- 75′We said Al-Nassr at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' NEOM · On: Khalifah Al-Dawsari · Off: Mohannad Abu Taha
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' NEOM · On: Haroune Camara · Off: Mohammed Al-Dossari
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' NEOM · On: Faisal Al-Ghamdi · Off: Abdulmalik Al-Oyayari
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Al-Nassr · On: Awad Aman · Off: Ayman Yahya
- 85′We said Al-Nassr at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Al-Nassr win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
- 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Al-Nassr · On: Sami Al-Najei · Off: Joao Felix
- 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Al-Nassr · On: Saad Haqawi · Off: Sadio Mané
- 95′1–0 at the end. Our 67% on Al-Nassr comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Al-Nassr 1–0 NEOM
- FTAl-Nassr 1–0 NEOM · Al-Nassr win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Al-Nassr are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Al-Nassr 67%, draw 19%, NEOM 14%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 55%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
Al-Nassr win67%
NEOM win14%Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:00
RoundMatchday 10
VenueAl-Awwal Park
Match timeline
All events
Al-NassrMIN
NEOMEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Al-Nassr
4-2-3-1
NEOM
3-4-3
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Al-Nassr
NEOM
Last match: 12 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite
Last match: 17 Oct · the Saudi Pro League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Al-Nassr
4-2-3-1
24 Bento
12 Nawaf Boushal
5 Abdulelah Al Amri
26 Íñigo Martínez
23 Ayman Yahya
11 Samú Costa
17 Abdullah Al Khaibari
20 Ângelo
79 João Félix
10 S. Mané
7 Cristiano Ronaldo
Coach · A. Postecoglou
Substitutes
14 · Sami Al Naji
9 · Abdullah Al Hamdan
22 · Abdulhadi Al Alwan
6 · Saad Al Nasser
70 · Awad Aman
60 · Saad Haqawi
50 · Majed Qasheesh
46 · Yassine Gays Munsif Sallem
8 · Hayder Abdulkareem
NEOM
3-4-3
1 M. Bułka
55 Muhammad Al Dosari
44 N. Zézé
5 M. Sarr
2 Mohammed Al Burayk
15 Abdulmalik Al Oyayari
6 A. Al Hassan
19 Mohannad Abu Taha
14 Khalil Al Absi
91 A. Lacazette
10 S. Benrahma
Coach · C. Galtier
Substitutes
23 · V. Vada
4 · Khalifah Al Dawsari
8 · Faisal Al Ghamdi
75 · Khalid Al Rammah
77 · Muhannad Al Saad
70 · Haroune Camara
33 · Abdulrahman Dagriri
27 · Islam Hawsawi
7 · G. Masouras
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Al-Nassr
4-2-3-1
24 Bento
12 Nawaf Boushal
5 Abdulelah Al Amri
26 Íñigo Martínez
23 Ayman Yahya
11 Samú Costa
17 Abdullah Al Khaibari
20 Ângelo
79 João Félix
10 S. Mané
7 Cristiano Ronaldo
Coach · A. Postecoglou
Substitutes
14 · Sami Al Naji
9 · Abdullah Al Hamdan
22 · Abdulhadi Al Alwan
6 · Saad Al Nasser
70 · Awad Aman
60 · Saad Haqawi
50 · Majed Qasheesh
46 · Yassine Gays Munsif Sallem
8 · Hayder Abdulkareem
NEOM
3-4-3
1 M. Bułka
55 Muhammad Al Dosari
44 N. Zézé
5 M. Sarr
2 Mohammed Al Burayk
15 Abdulmalik Al Oyayari
6 A. Al Hassan
19 Mohannad Abu Taha
14 Khalil Al Absi
91 A. Lacazette
10 S. Benrahma
Coach · C. Galtier
Substitutes
23 · V. Vada
4 · Khalifah Al Dawsari
8 · Faisal Al Ghamdi
75 · Khalid Al Rammah
77 · Muhannad Al Saad
70 · Haroune Camara
33 · Abdulrahman Dagriri
27 · Islam Hawsawi
7 · G. Masouras
We make Al-Nassr a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.3–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Nassr win | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | −1 |
| NEOM win | 14% | 15% | −1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 81% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 40% | +1 |
| Al-Nassr or draw | 86% | 85% | +1 |
| Al-Nassr clean sheet | 39% | – | – |
| NEOM clean sheet | 10% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2024/25Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 25 Aug
AL-NASSR
NEOM
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 9 | +20 | 24 |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 9 | +14 | 22 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 8 | +12 | 19 |
| 4 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 9 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Al-Ittihad FC | 8 | +5 | 17 |
| 6 | NEOM | 9 | +6 | 16 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 9 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 9 | −1 | 12 |
| 9 | Al Kholood | 9 | −4 | 12 |
| 10 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 10 | −4 | 12 |
| 11 | Al-Hazm | 10 | −4 | 9 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 8 | −8 | 9 |
| 13 | Al Shabab | 9 | −2 | 8 |
| 14 | Al-Faisaly FC | 9 | −7 | 7 |
| 15 | Al-Fayha | 10 | −7 | 7 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 10 | −11 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 9 | −12 | 4 |
| 18 | Abha | 8 | −9 | 2 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ettifaq
Al Diriyah
Al Kholood
Al Khaleej Saihat
Al-Hazm
Al Riyadh
Al Shabab
Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Fayha
Al-Fateh
Al Taawon
Abha