Al-Nassr v Al Kholood prediction · Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al-NassrDrawAl Kholood

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Al-Nassr 79%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Nassr are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Nassr 79%, draw 13%, Al Kholood 8%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Al-Nassr v Al KholoodBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al-Nassr win79%

Draw13%

Al Kholood win8%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueKing Saud University Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Nassr

Al Kholood

6Days since last match5

Last match: 23 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 24 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Al-Nassr	10	+15	25
9	Al Kholood	10	−7	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-nassr winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:23 · locked at kick-off

79% The market–

Us79%

We make Al-Nassr a 79% chance to win. The model expects 3.0–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Nassr v Al Kholood~~3.05 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 3 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 25 v 12~~2 v 9

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Nassr win

Published at 78%, 79% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Nassr win	79%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
Al Kholood win	8%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	55%	–	–
Al-Nassr or draw	92%	–	–
Al-Nassr clean sheet	42%	–	–
Al Kholood clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.1%

0123450 2.4 1 5.9 5.7 2.4 2 9.1 7.9 3.5 3 9.1 7.9 3.5 4 6.9 6.0 2.6 5 4.3 3.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Nassr down, Al Kholood across0–5 goals a side shown (90.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,492 Pro League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Nassr at home: 2.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Al Kholood away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.05 goals for Al-Nassr, 0.88 for Al Kholood. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ALK 0–3 ALN · ALN 2–0 ALK · ALN 3–1 ALK · ALK 3–3 ALN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 3 Sept

AL-NASSR

LWDWWW1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 3–1

AL KHOLOOD

DWLLLL2–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–5 · 2–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	10	+21	27
2	Al-Nassr	10	+15	25
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	11	+14	25
4	Al-Ittihad FC	10	+10	23
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	10	+14	21
6	NEOM	11	+7	19
7	Al-Ettifaq	11	+1	18
8	Al Diriyah	11	−2	15
9	Al Kholood	10	−7	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	11	−7	12
11	Al Riyadh	10	−8	12
12	Al Shabab	10	0	11
13	Al-Hazm	11	−4	10
14	Al-Fayha	11	−7	8
15	Al-Faisaly FC	10	−9	7
16	Al-Fateh	11	−13	6
17	Al Taawon	11	−14	4
18	Abha	9	−11	2