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Al-Nassr v Al Diriyah

Al-Nassr

3–0Full time

Al Diriyah

Pro League · FRI 9 OCT · Al-Awwal Park

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Al-Nassr 3–0 Al Diriyah AL-NASSR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Nassr win~~68%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.151

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.161

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Nassr win at 68%.
2′Much as we predicted: Al-Nassr was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 69% now. 0–0 · 69–18–12
2′KICK-OFF Al-Nassr v Al Diriyah
24′Al-Nassr ahead on 23′ through Cristiano Ronaldo. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–10–3
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Al-Nassr 1–0 Al Diriyah
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Al-Nassr 1–0 Al Diriyah · Cristiano Ronaldo
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Al-Nassr win: 68% at kick-off, 87% now
25′We published Al-Nassr at 68%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–10–3
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Chancel Mbemba · Al Diriyah
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Al-Nassr win: 68% at kick-off, 61% now
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Al-Nassr 1–0 Al Diriyah · Cristiano Ronaldo
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 86–10–3
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Al-Nassr win: 68% at kick-off, 86% now
35′We published Al-Nassr at 68%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Al-Nassr 2–0 Al Diriyah · Cristiano Ronaldo
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Al-Nassr win: 68% at kick-off, 97% now
36′Samu Costa scores for Al-Nassr on 35′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Al-Nassr 2–0 Al Diriyah · Samu Costa
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Abdulaziz Al Faraj · Al Diriyah
45′HALF-TIME Al-Nassr 2–0 Al Diriyah
46′SECOND HALF Al-Nassr 2–0 Al Diriyah
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Al Diriyah · On: Mohammed Dheban · Off: Abdulaziz Al Faraj Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Al Diriyah · On: Lovro Chelfi · Off: Hussain Al-Sabiyani Corrected
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Al-Nassr 3–0 Al Diriyah · Samu Costa
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Al-Nassr 3–0 Al Diriyah · Kingsley Coman
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Al-Nassr · On: Sami Al-Najei · Off: Abdullah Al-Khaibari Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Al-Nassr · On: Abdullah Al-Hamdan · Off: Joao Felix Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Al-Nassr · On: Ayman Yahya · Off: Kingsley Coman Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Al Diriyah · On: Taher Wadi · Off: Óscar Rodríguez Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Al Diriyah · On: Hussain Al Qahtani · Off: Adil Boulbina Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Al Diriyah · On: Meshari Fahad Al Nemer · Off: Idrissa Gueye Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Al-Nassr · On: Saad Fahad Al Nasser · Off: Awad Aman Corrected
FTAl-Nassr 3–0 Al Diriyah · Al-Nassr win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Al-Nassr win68%

Draw19%

Al Diriyah win13%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Al-Awwal Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Al-Nassr

4-4-2

24 Bento

12 N. Boushal

3 M. Simakan

26 I. Martinez

70 A. Aman

21 K. Coman

17 A. Al Khaibari

11 Samu Costa

10 S. Mane

79 Joao Felix

7 C. Ronaldo

Coach · Ange Postecoglou

Substitutes

22 · A. Al-Alwan

4 · N. Al Sharari

6 · S. Al Nasser

23 · A. Yahya

50 · M. Qasheesh

14 · S. Al Najei

9 · A. Al Hamdan

94 · A. Sufyani

60 · S. Haqawi

Al Diriyah

Formation not confirmed

33 W. Abdullah

2 A. Al Faraj

19 B. Djimsiti

87 Q. Lajami

99 C. Mbemba

16 K. A. Al Sibyani H.

10 A. Boulbina

5 I. Gueye

20 E. Millot

29 D. Nunez

14 O. Rodriguez

Coach · –

Substitutes

34 · M. Al Sibyani

4 · S. Al Rubaie

12 · T. Wadi

78 · K. Al Asiri

21 · M. Dheban

52 · H. Al Qahtani

6 · S. Al Farhan

25 · L. Chelfi

75 · M. Al Nemer

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Nassr

4-4-2

24 Bento

12 N. Boushal

3 M. Simakan

26 I. Martinez

70 A. Aman

21 K. Coman

17 A. Al Khaibari

11 Samu Costa

10 S. Mane

79 Joao Felix

7 C. Ronaldo

Coach · Ange Postecoglou

Substitutes

22 · A. Al-Alwan

4 · N. Al Sharari

6 · S. Al Nasser

23 · A. Yahya

50 · M. Qasheesh

14 · S. Al Najei

9 · A. Al Hamdan

94 · A. Sufyani

60 · S. Haqawi

Al Diriyah

Formation not confirmed

33 W. Abdullah

2 A. Al Faraj

19 B. Djimsiti

87 Q. Lajami

99 C. Mbemba

16 K. A. Al Sibyani H.

10 A. Boulbina

5 I. Gueye

20 E. Millot

29 D. Nunez

14 O. Rodriguez

Coach · –

Substitutes

34 · M. Al Sibyani

4 · S. Al Rubaie

12 · T. Wadi

78 · K. Al Asiri

21 · M. Dheban

52 · H. Al Qahtani

6 · S. Al Farhan

25 · L. Chelfi

75 · M. Al Nemer

Our number · al-nassr winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

68% The market67%

Us68%

~~Market~~67%

We make Al-Nassr a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.3–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al-nassr win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 66% to 68% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Nassr win	68%	67%	+1
Draw	19%	18%	+1
Al Diriyah win	13%	14%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	61%	67%	−7
Both teams to score	52%	59%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	82%	85%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	39%	47%	−8
Al-Nassr or draw	87%	86%	+2
Al-Nassr clean sheet	43%	–	–
Al Diriyah clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.0%

0123450 5.0 3.4 1 9.4 8.9 3.7 2 11.0 9.2 4.0 3 8.4 7.0 3.0 4 4.9 4.1 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Nassr down, Al Diriyah across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,461 Pro League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Al-Nassr at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Al Diriyah away: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.31 goals for Al-Nassr, 0.86 for Al Diriyah. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 19:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Pro League

AL-NASSR

WWWLWD4–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

AL DIRIYAH

WDWLWD1–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	7	+18	18
2	Al-Ittihad FC	7	+6	17
3	Al-Nassr	7	+9	16
4	Al-Qadisiyah FC	7	+8	16
5	NEOM	7	+7	15
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	7	+6	12
7	Al Kholood	7	+2	12
8	Al Diriyah	7	+2	11
9	Al-Ettifaq	7	0	11
10	Al-Hazm	7	−2	8
11	Al Riyadh	7	−8	8
12	Al-Fayha	7	−4	6
13	Al Khaleej Saihat	7	−7	5
14	Al Shabab	7	−5	4
15	Al-Fateh	7	−7	3
16	Al-Faisaly FC	7	−8	3
17	Al Taawon	7	−9	3
18	Abha	7	−8	2