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Al Kholood v Al-Ettifaq

Al Kholood
0–3Full time
Al-Ettifaq

Pro League · SAT 24 OCT · Al Hazm Club Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45
Al Kholood 0–3 Al-Ettifaq AL-ETTIFAQ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al-Ettifaq win42%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.514
The market’s Brier score0.613

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Ettifaq win at 42%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Al-Ettifaq 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 33–26–42
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Al Kholood v Al-Ettifaq
  4. 11′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Yasir Al-Shammari · Al-Ettifaq
  5. 33′SUBSTITUTION · 32' Al-Ettifaq · On: Sultan Ali Huran · Off: Moussa Dembélé
  6. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Al-Ettifaq win 36%)
  7. 48′We said Al-Ettifaq at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 0–1 · 8–20–72
  8. 48′Khalid Al-Ghannam scores for Al-Ettifaq on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–20–72
  9. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Al Kholood 0–1 Al-Ettifaq
  10. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Al-Ettifaq win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
  11. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Al-Ettifaq win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 39%)
  12. 49′47′: Khalid Al-Ghannam on the scoresheet for Al-Ettifaq, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
  13. 49′We said Al-Ettifaq at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
  14. 49′⚽ GOAL · 47' Al Kholood 0–2 Al-Ettifaq · Khalid Al-Ghannam
  15. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Al-Ettifaq win: 42% at kick-off, 93% now
  16. 50′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–2 · 1–6–93
  17. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Ondrej Duda · Al-Ettifaq
  18. 56′We said Al-Ettifaq at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  19. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Al Kholood · On: Antoine Loic Essomba Bikoula · Off: Yaseen Al-Zubaidi
  20. 58′We said Al-Ettifaq at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
  21. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 57' John Buckley · Al Kholood
  22. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Julien Domingues · Al Kholood
  23. 62′14 shots for Al Kholood, 8 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
  24. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Al-Ettifaq · On: Jordan Larsson · Off: Ziyad Abdullah Al-Ghamdi
  25. 69′16 shots for Al Kholood, 9 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
  26. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Al Kholood · On: Mohammed Sawaan · Off: Sultan Al Shehri
  27. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Al-Ettifaq · On: Meshal Al-Aeli · Off: Madallah Al-Olayan
  28. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Al-Ettifaq · On: Matija Gluscevic · Off: Khalid Al-Ghannam
  29. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Al-Ettifaq · On: Abdalellah Hawsawi · Off: Ondrej Duda
  30. 79′Bersant Celina scores for Al-Ettifaq on 78′. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  31. 79′We said Al-Ettifaq at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  32. 79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Al Kholood 0–3 Al-Ettifaq · Bersant Celina (penalty)
  33. 80′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  34. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Jordan Larsson · Al-Ettifaq
  35. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Al Kholood · On: Abdulrahman Obaid Al-Obaid · Off: Shaquille Pinas
  36. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Al Kholood · On: Abdulrahman Al-Dosari · Off: Gustavo Gouveia Rodrigues Cruz
  37. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Al Kholood · On: Yazan Madani · Off: Iker Kortajarena Canellada Corrected
  38. FTFULL TIME Al Kholood 0–3 Al-Ettifaq
  39. FTAl Kholood 0–3 Al-Ettifaq · Al-Ettifaq win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Ettifaq are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Kholood 33%, draw 26%, Al-Ettifaq 42%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Al Kholood v Al-EttifaqBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Al Kholood win33%
Draw26%
Al-Ettifaq win42%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:05

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAl Hazm Club Stadium

Line-ups

Al Kholood

4-4-2

Al-Ettifaq

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Kholood

Al-Ettifaq

9Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 20 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

1Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Al-Ettifaq10−215
9Al Kholood9−412

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Kholood

4-4-2

1 Hamed Abdullah Yousef

15 Ramzi Solan

38 S. Pinas

25 Mansour Camara

7 Sultan Al Shehri

26 Yaseen Al Zubaidi

6 J. Buckley

10 Iker Kortajarena

11 Coba

22 J. Domingues

99 Guga

Coach · D. Buckingham

Substitutes

39 · Abdulrahman Al Dosari

47 · Abdulrahman Al Obaid

30 · Mohammed Mazyad Alshammari

48 · Muhannad Al Yahya

77 · A. Essomba

23 · Yazan Madani

70 · Muhammad Sawan

24 · O. Abdulghani

67 · Mohammed Al Rashidi

Al-Ettifaq

4-2-3-1

1 M. Rodák

70 Abdullah Khateeb

5 Pedro Henrique

4 J. Hendry

33 Madallah Al Olayan

58 Yasir Shammari

11 O. Duda

29 Z. Al Ghamdi

43 B. Celina

7 Khalid Al Ghannam

9 M. Dembélé

Coach · Arthur Papas

Substitutes

92 · Turki Ba Al Jawsh

88 · Ali Al Essa

13 · Meshal Al Alaeli

71 · M. Gluščević

77 · Abdulelah

99 · Sultan Ali Huran

87 · Meshal Sibyani

17 · J. Larsson

78 · Marzouq Tambakti

Our number · al-ettifaq winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
42% The market36%
Us42%
Market36%

We make Al-Ettifaq a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Al Kholood v Al-Ettifaq1.36 – 1.56
Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 29 AugW2 D1 L3 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 12 v 159 v 7
The market · Al-Ettifaq win36% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 15:14
Our probability · Al-Ettifaq win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Al Kholood win33%37%−4
Draw26%26%0
Al-Ettifaq win42%36%+6
Over 2.5 goals56%55%+1
Both teams to score59%59%0
Over 1.5 goals79%77%+2
Over 3.5 goals34%34%0
Al Kholood or draw58%64%−6
Al Kholood clean sheet21%––
Al-Ettifaq clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%
0123450 6.1 7.9 6.6 3.4 1 6.8 11.9 8.8 4.6 2 5.0 7.7 5.9 3.1 3 2.3 3.5 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Al Kholood down, Al-Ettifaq across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored3 of 4
Last meetingsALK 1–2 ALE · ALE 2–1 ALK · ALK 1–0 ALE · ALE 2–3 ALK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 29 Aug

AL KHOLOOD

WDWLLL3–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–5 · 2–3

AL-ETTIFAQ

WDDDWL1–0 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–4

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Al-Hilal Saudi FC10+2127
2Al-Nassr10+1525
3Al-Qadisiyah FC11+1425
4Al-Ittihad FC10+1023
5Al-Ahli Jeddah10+1421
6NEOM10+516
7Al-Ettifaq10−215
8Al Diriyah11−215
9Al Kholood9−412
10Al Khaleej Saihat11−712
11Al Shabab10011
12Al-Hazm11−410
13Al Riyadh9−99
14Al-Fayha11−78
15Al-Faisaly FC10−97
16Al-Fateh11−136
17Al Taawon10−134
18Abha8−92

The competition's standings before kick-off.