Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Hazm prediction · Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al Khaleej SaihatDrawAl-Hazm

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:35

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Khaleej Saihat 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Khaleej Saihat are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Khaleej Saihat 44%, draw 26%, Al-Hazm 29%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-HazmBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Khaleej Saihat win44%

Draw26%

Al-Hazm win29%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 14:35

RoundMatchday 12

VenuePrince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Khaleej Saihat

Al-Hazm

6Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 22 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	11	−7	12
12	Al-Hazm	11	−4	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al khaleej saihat winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

44% The market44%

Us44%

~~Market~~44%

We make Al Khaleej Saihat a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Hazm~~1.54 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 7 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 10~~10 v 12

~~The market · Al Khaleej Saihat win~~44% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Khaleej Saihat win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Khaleej Saihat win	44%	44%	0
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Al-Hazm win	29%	28%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	51%	50%	+1
Both teams to score	55%	55%	0
Over 1.5 goals	76%	73%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	30%	−1
Al Khaleej Saihat or draw	71%	72%	−1
Al Khaleej Saihat clean sheet	30%	–	–
Al-Hazm clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.2 7.3 4.7 1 9.4 12.4 7.1 2.9 2 7.6 9.0 5.4 2.2 3 3.9 4.6 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Khaleej Saihat down, Al-Hazm across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,492 Pro League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Hazm away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Al Khaleej Saihat, 1.20 for Al-Hazm. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ALK 2–1 ALH · ALH 1–4 ALK · ALH 1–1 ALK · ALK 1–1 ALH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 7 Sept

AL KHALEEJ SAIHAT

DDDWWL0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 1–4

AL-HAZM

WLDLLD1–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	10	+21	27
2	Al-Nassr	10	+15	25
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	11	+14	25
4	Al-Ittihad FC	10	+10	23
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	10	+14	21
6	NEOM	10	+5	16
7	Al-Ettifaq	10	−2	15
8	Al Diriyah	11	−2	15
9	Al Kholood	9	−4	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	11	−7	12
11	Al Shabab	10	0	11
12	Al-Hazm	11	−4	10
13	Al Riyadh	9	−9	9
14	Al-Fayha	11	−7	8
15	Al-Faisaly FC	10	−9	7
16	Al-Fateh	11	−13	6
17	Al Taawon	10	−13	4
18	Abha	8	−9	2