Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Fayha prediction · Pro League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 18:30

Al Khaleej Saihat 2–0 Al-Fayha AL KHALEEJ SAIHAT WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Khaleej Saihat win~~40%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.540

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.499

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Khaleej Saihat win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–32
1′KICK-OFF Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Fayha
36′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Al-Fayha · On: Nawaf Al-Harthi · Off: Lázaro Vinicius Marques
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Al Khaleej Saihat win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Al Khaleej Saihat 0–0 Al-Fayha
46′SECOND HALF Al Khaleej Saihat 0–0 Al-Fayha
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Nawaf Al-Harthi · Al-Fayha
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Al Khaleej Saihat win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
52′We said Al Khaleej Saihat at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–5
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Al Khaleej Saihat 1–0 Al-Fayha
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Al Khaleej Saihat win: 40% at kick-off, 75% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Al Khaleej Saihat win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 19%)
53′Joshua King scores for Al Khaleej Saihat on 52′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–19–5
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Al Khaleej Saihat · On: Mansour Hamzi · Off: Fahad Al Rashidi
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Al Khaleej Saihat win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
65′We said Al Khaleej Saihat at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
74′We said Al Khaleej Saihat at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Al Khaleej Saihat · On: Mateo Benegas · Off: Joshua King
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Al Khaleej Saihat · On: Nawaf Al-Sadi · Off: Saleh Al Amri
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Al-Fayha · On: Fahad Al Hubayshi · Off: Nawaf Al-Harthi
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Al-Fayha · On: Rayan Enad · Off: Mohammed Al-Baqawi
80′We said Al Khaleej Saihat at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
80′80′: Mateo Benegas on the scoresheet for Al Khaleej Saihat, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Al Khaleej Saihat win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Al Khaleej Saihat 2–0 Al-Fayha · Mateo Benegas
81′We said Al Khaleej Saihat at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
81′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
82′We said Al Khaleej Saihat at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Al Khaleej Saihat win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Jason Remeseiro · Al-Fayha
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Al-Fayha · On: Malek Al-Abdulmonam · Off: Ali Al-Hussain
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Al-Fayha · On: Mansor Al Beshe · Off: Mokher Al-Rashidi
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Al Khaleej Saihat · On: Ahmad Asiri · Off: Abdullah Al-Hafith
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Al Khaleej Saihat · On: Fawaz Al-Sagour · Off: Musa Barrow
FTFULL TIME Al Khaleej Saihat 2–0 Al-Fayha
FTAl Khaleej Saihat 2–0 Al-Fayha · Al Khaleej Saihat win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Khaleej Saihat are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Khaleej Saihat 40%, draw 29%, Al-Fayha 31%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-FayhaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Al Khaleej Saihat win40%

Draw29%

Al-Fayha win31%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 15:50

RoundMatchday 9

VenuePrince Mohammed Bin Fahd Stadium

Line-ups

Al Khaleej Saihat

4-4-2

Al-Fayha

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Khaleej Saihat

Al-Fayha

5Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Al-Fayha	8	−4	7
14	Al Khaleej Saihat	8	−7	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Khaleej Saihat

4-4-2

96 Marwan Al Haidari

39 Saeed Al Hamsal

17 Abdullah Al Hafith

3 Mohammed Al Khabrani

5 Pedro Rebocho

11 Saleh Al Amri

8 Omar Mascarell

12 Majed Kanabah

97 Fahad Al Rashidi

7 J. King

99 M. Barrow

Coach · José Gomes

Substitutes

14 · Ali Al Shaafi

90 · Thamer Al Khaibri

27 · Fawaz Al Saqour

13 · Ahmad Asiri

9 · M. Benegas

15 · Mansour Hamzi

1 · M. Abbas Ibrahim

4 · K. Kouyaté

18 · Nawaf Al Saadi

Al-Fayha

4-4-2

52 O. Mosquera

22 Mohammed Al Baqawi

2 Mukhir Al Rashidi

25 O. Colley

24 Ahmed Bamasud

23 Jason

5 Hugo Moura

6 Ali Al Hussain

40 Yago Santana

30 Alfa Semedo

17 Lázaro

Coach · Fábio Carille

Substitutes

9 · Malek Al Abdulmanam

14 · Mansor Al Beshe

1 · Abdulraoof Al-Deqeel

7 · Nawaf Al-Harthi

27 · S. Al Harbi

21 · Ziyad Al Sahafi

43 · Fahad Majed Alhubayshi

77 · R. Enad

84 · Hameed Shoei Hazazi

Our number · al khaleej saihat winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

40% The market42%

Us40%

~~Market~~42%

We make Al Khaleej Saihat a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Fayha~~1.33 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 25 Aug~~W0 D4 L2 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 7~~14 v 13

~~The market · Al Khaleej Saihat win~~42% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Khaleej Saihat win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Khaleej Saihat win	40%	42%	−2
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Al-Fayha win	31%	30%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%	−5
Both teams to score	50%	55%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	71%	74%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	30%	−6
Al Khaleej Saihat or draw	69%	70%	−1
Al Khaleej Saihat clean sheet	32%	–	–
Al-Fayha clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.4 9.0 5.6 2.1 1 10.5 13.4 7.2 2.8 2 7.4 8.4 4.8 3 3.3 3.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Khaleej Saihat down, Al-Fayha across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,469 Pro League matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 7 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Fayha away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Al Khaleej Saihat, 1.14 for Al-Fayha. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 15:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ALF 3–1 ALK · ALK 3–0 ALF · ALF 0–0 ALK · ALK 0–0 ALF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 25 Aug

AL KHALEEJ SAIHAT

DLLDDD1–1 · 1–5 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

AL-FAYHA

DWDLDD0–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	8	+19	21
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	8	+13	19
3	Al-Nassr	8	+12	19
4	Al-Ittihad FC	8	+5	17
5	NEOM	8	+7	16
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	8	+10	15
7	Al-Ettifaq	8	0	12
8	Al Kholood	8	−3	12
9	Al Diriyah	8	−1	11
10	Al-Hazm	8	−2	9
11	Al Riyadh	8	−8	9
12	Al Shabab	8	−2	7
13	Al-Fayha	8	−4	7
14	Al Khaleej Saihat	8	−7	6
15	Al-Faisaly FC	7	−8	3
16	Al-Fateh	8	−11	3
17	Al Taawon	8	−12	3
18	Abha	7	−8	2