Al-Ittihad FC v Al Shabab prediction · Pro League

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · postponed

Al-Ittihad FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Ittihad FC 53%, draw 23%, Al Shabab 24%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Al-Ittihad FC v Al ShababBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · postponed, not graded

Al-Ittihad FC win53%

Draw23%

Al Shabab win24%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueAlinma Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Ittihad FC

Al Shabab

3Days since last match5

Last match: 13 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

Last match: 11 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al-Ittihad FC	8	+5	17
13	Al Shabab	8	−2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-ittihad fc winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 04:04 · postponed, not graded

53% The market52%

Us53%

~~Market~~52%

We make Al-Ittihad FC a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Ittihad FC v Al Shabab~~1.91 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 24 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 7~~4 v 13

~~The market · Al-Ittihad FC win~~52% · ours 53%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Ittihad FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Ittihad FC win	53%	52%	+1
Draw	23%	23%	0
Al Shabab win	24%	25%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	61%	67%	−6
Both teams to score	60%	66%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	82%	85%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	38%	47%	−9
Al-Ittihad FC or draw	76%	75%	+1
Al-Ittihad FC clean sheet	30%	–	–
Al Shabab clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.1 4.8 3.3 1 7.7 10.7 6.2 2.6 2 7.9 9.5 5.8 2.4 3 5.0 6.1 3.7 4 2.4 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Ittihad FC down, Al Shabab across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,472 Pro League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Ittihad FC at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Shabab away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Al-Ittihad FC, 1.23 for Al Shabab. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALS 3–2 ALI · ALI 2–0 ALS · ALI 4–1 ALS · ALS 2–3 ALI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 24 Aug

AL-ITTIHAD FC

WDWWWL3–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–3

AL SHABAB

DDLLDW3–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Qadisiyah FC	9	+14	22
2	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	8	+19	21
3	Al-Nassr	8	+12	19
4	Al-Ittihad FC	8	+5	17
5	NEOM	8	+7	16
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	8	+10	15
7	Al-Ettifaq	8	0	12
8	Al Kholood	9	−4	12
9	Al Diriyah	8	−1	11
10	Al-Hazm	9	−3	9
11	Al Khaleej Saihat	9	−5	9
12	Al Riyadh	8	−8	9
13	Al Shabab	8	−2	7
14	Al-Fayha	9	−6	7
15	Al-Faisaly FC	8	−7	6
16	Al-Fateh	9	−10	6
17	Al Taawon	8	−12	3
18	Abha	8	−9	2