Al-Ittihad FC v Al Diriyah prediction · Pro League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 19:31

Al-Ittihad FC 2–0 Al Diriyah AL-ITTIHAD FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Ittihad FC win~~56%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.297

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.329

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Ittihad FC win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al-Ittihad FC was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–24–20
1′KICK-OFF Al-Ittihad FC v Al Diriyah
7′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Saad Al-Mousa · Al-Ittihad FC
25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Mukhtar Ali · Al-Ittihad FC
30′We published Al-Ittihad FC at 56%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–6
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Al-Ittihad FC 1–0 Al Diriyah
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Al-Ittihad FC win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
32′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 80–15–5
33′Al-Ittihad FC ahead on 30′ through George Ilenikhena. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–15–5
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Óscar Rodríguez · Al Diriyah
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' George Ilenikhena · Al-Ittihad FC
45′HALF-TIME Al-Ittihad FC 1–0 Al Diriyah
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al-Ittihad FC · On: Youssef En-Nesyri · Off: George Ilenikhena
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al-Ittihad FC · On: Dion Lopy · Off: Saad Al-Mousa
46′SECOND HALF Al-Ittihad FC 1–0 Al Diriyah
56′We published Al-Ittihad FC at 56%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Al-Ittihad FC 2–0 Al Diriyah
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Al-Ittihad FC win: 56% at kick-off, 97% now
57′Danilo Pereira scores for Al-Ittihad FC on 56′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
58′GOAL DISALLOWED · 58' Danilo Pereira · Al-Ittihad FC
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Al-Ittihad FC win: 56% at kick-off, 83% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Al Diriyah · On: Clayton diandy · Off: Lovro Chelfi
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Al Diriyah · On: Darwin Nuñez · Off: Meshari Fahad Al Nemer
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Al Diriyah · On: Khalid Al-Asiri · Off: Hussain Al-Sabiyani
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Berat Djimsiti · Al Diriyah
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Enzo Millot · Al Diriyah
62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Al Diriyah · On: Abdulelah Al-Malki · Off: Hussain Al Qahtani
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Meshari Fahad Al Nemer · Al Diriyah
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Abdulelah Al-Malki · Al Diriyah
65′We published Al-Ittihad FC at 56%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
77′We published Al-Ittihad FC at 56%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
77′Georginio Wijnaldum scores for Al-Ittihad FC on 77′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Al-Ittihad FC 2–0 Al Diriyah
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Al-Ittihad FC win: 56% at kick-off, 99% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Al-Ittihad FC · On: Marwan Al-Sahafi · Off: Georginio Wijnaldum
80′We published Al-Ittihad FC at 56%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Al Diriyah · On: Abdulaziz Al Faraj · Off: Óscar Rodríguez
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Al-Ittihad FC · On: Muath Faquihi · Off: Ahmed Al-Ghamdi
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Al-Ittihad FC · On: Mohammed Ahmed Fallatah · Off: Houssem Aouar
FTFULL TIME Al-Ittihad FC 2–0 Al Diriyah
FTAl-Ittihad FC 2–0 Al Diriyah · Al-Ittihad FC win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Ittihad FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Ittihad FC 56%, draw 24%, Al Diriyah 20%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Al-Ittihad FC v Al DiriyahBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al-Ittihad FC win56%

Draw24%

Al Diriyah win20%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAlinma Stadium

Line-ups

Al-Ittihad FC

4-2-3-1

Al Diriyah

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Ittihad FC

Al Diriyah

3Days since last match3

Last match: 20 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al-Ittihad FC	9	+8	20
7	Al Diriyah	10	0	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Ittihad FC

4-2-3-1

1 P. Rajković

13 Muhannad Al Shanqiti

6 Saad Al Mosa

2 Danilo Pereira

25 F. Abdi

5 R. Rios

8 Mukhtar Ali

23 G. Wijnaldum

10 H. Aouar

27 Ahmed Al Ghamdi

9 G. Ilenikhena

Coach · Jens Wissing

Substitutes

30 · D. Lopy

22 · Marwan Al Sahafi

32 · Ahmed Al Julaydan

50 · Mohammed Al Absi

11 · Saleh Al Shehri

66 · Mohammed Barnawi

21 · Y. En-Nesyri

42 · Muath Faqeehi

41 · Mohammed Fallatah

Al Diriyah

4-2-3-1

97 Amin Al Bukhari

12 T. Wadi

19 B. Djimsiti

99 C. Mbemba

16 Hussain Al Sibyani

52 Hussain Al Qahtani

20 E. Millot

25 L. Chelfi

14 Óscar Rodríguez

10 A. Boulbina

75 Meshari Al Nemer

Coach · Bruno Lage

Substitutes

2 · Abdulaziz Al Faraj

88 · Abdulelah Al Malki

34 · Mansour Hibatullah Al Sibyani

17 · C. Diandy

21 · M. Hameran

87 · Qassem Lajami

29 · D. Núñez

78 · Khalid Al Asiri

6 · Sultan Al Farhan

Our number · al-ittihad fc winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

56% The market53%

Us56%

~~Market~~53%

We make Al-Ittihad FC a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Ittihad FC v Al Diriyah~~1.80 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 15~~4 v 7

~~The market · Al-Ittihad FC win~~53% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Ittihad FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Ittihad FC win	56%	53%	+3
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Al Diriyah win	20%	24%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	52%	62%	−10
Both teams to score	52%	62%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	77%	82%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	30%	41%	−11
Al-Ittihad FC or draw	80%	76%	+4
Al-Ittihad FC clean sheet	38%	–	–
Al Diriyah clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 7.1 5.7 3.1 1 10.7 11.3 5.3 2 9.9 9.5 4.7 3 6.0 5.7 2.8 4 2.8 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Ittihad FC down, Al Diriyah across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,485 Pro League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.2% of games this season, across 87 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Al-Ittihad FC at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Diriyah away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Al-Ittihad FC, 0.98 for Al Diriyah. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 16:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 29 Aug

AL-ITTIHAD FC

DWWWLW0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 4–1

AL DIRIYAH

LWDLDW0–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Qadisiyah FC	10	+15	25
2	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	9	+20	24
3	Al-Nassr	9	+13	22
4	Al-Ittihad FC	9	+8	20
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	9	+11	18
6	NEOM	10	+5	16
7	Al Diriyah	10	0	15
8	Al-Ettifaq	10	−2	15
9	Al Kholood	9	−4	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	10	−4	12
11	Al Shabab	10	0	11
12	Al-Hazm	11	−4	10
13	Al Riyadh	9	−9	9
14	Al-Fayha	11	−7	8
15	Al-Faisaly FC	9	−7	7
16	Al-Fateh	11	−13	6
17	Al Taawon	10	−13	4
18	Abha	8	−9	2