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Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-Ittihad FC

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

3–2Full time

Al-Ittihad FC

Pro League · SAT 10 OCT · Kingdom Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–2 Al-Ittihad FC AL-HILAL SAUDI FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Hilal Saudi FC win~~63%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.200

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.113

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Hilal Saudi FC win at 63%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al-Hilal Saudi FC was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–19–17
7′Much as we predicted: Al-Hilal Saudi FC was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 63–20–18
11′We published Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 63%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–12–6
13′Gabriel Martinelli scores for Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–6
16′Gabriel Martinelli scores for Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–6
17′Gabriel Martinelli scores for Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–6
20′We published Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 63%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–12–6
24′22′ and it is 1–1: Youssef En-Nesyri on the scoresheet for Al-Ittihad FC. 1–1 · 58–23–18
28′22′ and it is 1–1: Youssef En-Nesyri on the scoresheet for Al-Ittihad FC. 1–1 · 57–25–18
33′Al-Hilal Saudi FC ahead on 30′ through Ollie Watkins. 2–1. 2–1 · 82–13–5
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 63% at kick-off, 82% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 63% at kick-off, 57% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 63% at kick-off, 82% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 63% at kick-off, 57% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 63% at kick-off, 82% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 63% at kick-off, 57% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 63% at kick-off, 82% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 63% at kick-off, 57% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 63% at kick-off, 82% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 63% at kick-off, 57% now
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Dion Lopy · Al-Ittihad FC
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 63% at kick-off, 57% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 63% at kick-off, 82% now
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Dion Lopy · Al-Ittihad FC
45′SECOND HALF Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2–1 Al-Ittihad FC
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–1 Al-Ittihad FC · Ollie Watkins
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–1 Al-Ittihad FC · Ollie Watkins
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–1 Al-Ittihad FC · Ollie Watkins
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Al-Ittihad FC · On: Georginio Wijnaldum · Off: Marwan Al-Sahafi Corrected
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–1 Al-Ittihad FC · Ollie Watkins
63′⚽ GOAL · 64' Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–1 Al-Ittihad FC · Crysencio Summerville
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Al-Hilal Saudi FC · On: Mohamed Kanno · Off: Saimon Bouabre Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Al-Hilal Saudi FC · On: Moteb Al-Harbi · Off: Theo Hernandez Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Al-Ittihad FC · On: Muath Faquihi · Off: Faris Abdi Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Al-Ittihad FC · On: Ahmed Al Julaydan · Off: Muhannad Al-Shanqeeti Corrected
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Steven Bergwijn · Al-Ittihad FC
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Al-Hilal Saudi FC · On: Sultan Mandash · Off: Ollie Watkins Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Al-Hilal Saudi FC · On: Murad Al Hawsawi · Off: Nasser Al-Dawsari Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Al-Ittihad FC · On: Mukhtar Ali · Off: Ahmed Al-Ghamdi Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Al-Ittihad FC · On: Saleh Al-Shehri · Off: Houssem Aouar Corrected
87′PENALTY · 87' Al-Ittihad FC
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–2 Al-Ittihad FC · Crysencio Summerville
88′⚽ GOAL · 89' Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–2 Al-Ittihad FC · Steven Bergwijn
89′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Al-Hilal Saudi FC · On: Ali Lajami · Off: Hassan Al-Tambakti Corrected
FTFULL TIME Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–2 Al-Ittihad FC
FTAl-Hilal Saudi FC 3–2 Al-Ittihad FC · Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Al-Hilal Saudi FC win63%

Draw19%

Al-Ittihad FC win17%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Kingdom Arena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

4-4-2

37 Bono

2 M. Mahzari

87 H. Tambakti

3 K. Koulibaly

19 T. Hernandez

7 G. Martinelli

8 R. Neves

6 N. Al Dawsari

38 C. Summerville

70 S. Bouabre

11 O. Watkins

Coach · Simone Inzaghi

Substitutes

33 · M. Al Owais

78 · A. Lajami

24 · M. Al Harbi

28 · M. Kanno

77 · N. Al Habashi

96 · S. Al Zaid

18 · M. Al Hawsawi

27 · S. Mandash

72 · S. Dahal

Al-Ittihad FC

4-2-3-1

1 P. Rajkovic

13 M. Al Shanqiti

2 D. Pereira

4 J. Simic

25 F. Abdi

30 D. Lopy

27 A. Al Ghamdi

22 M. Al Sahafi

10 H. Aouar

34 S. Bergwijn

21 Y. En Nesyri

Coach · Jens Wissing

Substitutes

50 · M. Al Absi

32 · A. Al Julaydan

42 · M. Fagihy

6 · S. Al Mousa

23 · G. Wijnaldum

8 · M. Ali

60 · R. Kaabi

11 · S. Al Shehri

29 · F. Al Shamrani

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

4-4-2

37 Bono

2 M. Mahzari

87 H. Tambakti

3 K. Koulibaly

19 T. Hernandez

7 G. Martinelli

8 R. Neves

6 N. Al Dawsari

38 C. Summerville

70 S. Bouabre

11 O. Watkins

Coach · Simone Inzaghi

Substitutes

33 · M. Al Owais

78 · A. Lajami

24 · M. Al Harbi

28 · M. Kanno

77 · N. Al Habashi

96 · S. Al Zaid

18 · M. Al Hawsawi

27 · S. Mandash

72 · S. Dahal

Al-Ittihad FC

4-2-3-1

1 P. Rajkovic

13 M. Al Shanqiti

2 D. Pereira

4 J. Simic

25 F. Abdi

30 D. Lopy

27 A. Al Ghamdi

22 M. Al Sahafi

10 H. Aouar

34 S. Bergwijn

21 Y. En Nesyri

Coach · Jens Wissing

Substitutes

50 · M. Al Absi

32 · A. Al Julaydan

42 · M. Fagihy

6 · S. Al Mousa

23 · G. Wijnaldum

8 · M. Ali

60 · R. Kaabi

11 · S. Al Shehri

29 · F. Al Shamrani

Our number · al-hilal saudi fc winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

63% The market73%

Us63%

~~Market~~73%

We make Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al-hilal saudi fc win The market, margin stripped

Published at 64%, 63% now. The market has gone from 72% to 73% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Hilal Saudi FC win	63%	73%	−9
Draw	19%	16%	+3
Al-Ittihad FC win	17%	11%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	68%	71%	−3
Both teams to score	62%	58%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	87%	87%	0
Over 3.5 goals	47%	51%	−4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw	83%	89%	−6
Al-Hilal Saudi FC clean sheet	32%	–	–
Al-Ittihad FC clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 3.1 2.0 1 6.6 8.5 4.7 2 8.2 9.4 5.4 2.1 3 6.5 7.3 4.2 4 3.9 4.4 2.5 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Hilal Saudi FC down, Al-Ittihad FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,464 Pro League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.1% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.60 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.37 goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 1.16 for Al-Ittihad FC. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALH 1–1 ALI · ALI 0–2 ALH · ALI 4–1 ALH · ALH 3–1 ALI

Form · last six in Pro League

AL-HILAL SAUDI FC

WWWWLW3–0 · 5–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 6–0

AL-ITTIHAD FC

WWDWWW1–0 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Qadisiyah FC	8	+13	19
2	Al-Nassr	8	+12	19
3	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	7	+18	18
4	Al-Ittihad FC	7	+6	17
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	8	+10	15
6	NEOM	7	+7	15
7	Al Kholood	8	−3	12
8	Al-Ettifaq	7	0	11
9	Al Diriyah	8	−1	11
10	Al-Hazm	7	−2	8
11	Al Riyadh	7	−8	8
12	Al-Fayha	7	−4	6
13	Al Khaleej Saihat	7	−7	5
14	Al Shabab	7	−5	4
15	Al-Faisaly FC	7	−8	3
16	Al Taawon	7	−9	3
17	Al-Fateh	8	−11	3
18	Abha	7	−8	2