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Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-Hazm

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1–0Full time
Al-Hazm

Pro League · MON 19 OCT · Kingdom Arena

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 21:30
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1–0 Al-Hazm AL-HILAL SAUDI FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al-Hilal Saudi FC win83%
The market said88%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.047
The market’s Brier score0.024

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Hilal Saudi FC win at 83%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Al-Hilal Saudi FC was 83% before kick-off and our model makes it 82% now. 0–0 · 82–12–6
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-Hazm
  4. 22′7 shots for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 77–16–7
  5. 24′SUBSTITUTION · 23' Al-Hazm · On: Ahmed Al-Shamrani · Off: Aboubacar·Diakite
  6. 26′Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had 8 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 76–17–8
  7. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 83% at kick-off, 73% now
  8. 36′We said Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 83%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 71%. 0–0 · 71–20–8
  9. 41′We said Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 83%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 69%. 0–0 · 69–22–8
  10. 45′Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had 12 attempts to 0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 67–24–9
  11. 45′SECOND HALF Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0–0 Al-Hazm
  12. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Ahmed Al-Nakhli · Al-Hazm
  13. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Ahmed Al-Shamrani · Al-Hazm
  14. 47′HALF-TIME Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0–0 Al-Hazm
  15. 49′We said Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 83%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 64–27–9
  16. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 83% at kick-off, 63% now
  17. 55′We expected about 3.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 60–31–9
  18. 56′We said Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 83%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–32–9
  19. 62′We said Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 83%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–37–9
  20. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 83% at kick-off, 53% now
  21. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1–0 Al-Hazm
  22. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 83% at kick-off, 91% now
  23. 68′Ollie Watkins scores for Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 67′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 92–8–1
  24. 69′GOAL DISALLOWED · 69' Al-Hilal Saudi FC
  25. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 83% at kick-off, 46% now
  26. 71′We said Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 83%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–49–8
  27. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Al-Hazm · On: Amir Saâyoud · Off: Afimico Pululu
  28. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Al-Hazm · On: Mohammed Al Hamdani · Off: Sofiane Bendebka
  29. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 83% at kick-off, 43% now
  30. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Al-Hilal Saudi FC win 46%)
  31. 74′We said Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 83%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–54–7
  32. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Al-Hilal Saudi FC · On: Moteb Al-Harbi · Off: Theo Hernandez
  33. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Al-Hilal Saudi FC · On: Sultan Mandash · Off: Hassan Al-Tambakti
  34. 77′We said Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 83%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–60–7
  35. 77′Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had 16 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 33–60–7
  36. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 83% at kick-off, 33% now
  37. 79′We said Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 83%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–64–6
  38. 82′We said Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 83%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–72–5
  39. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 83% at kick-off, 23% now
  40. 84′We said Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 83%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–78–4
  41. 87′We said Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 83%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–83–3
  42. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 83% at kick-off, 13% now
  43. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Al-Hazm · On: Mohammed Eissa Saleh Al-Jamaan Al-Yami · Off: Abdulaziz Al-Harbi
  44. 89′We published Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 83%. Our model now makes it 97%. 1–0 · 97–3–0
  45. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Al-Hazm · On: Abdullah Al Shanqiti · Off: Abdurahman Al-Dakheel
  46. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1–0 Al-Hazm
  47. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 83% at kick-off, 97% now
  48. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 86%)
  49. 91′Gabriel Martinelli scores for Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 89′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 98–2–0
  50. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Gabriel Martinelli · Al-Hilal Saudi FC
  51. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Al-Hilal Saudi FC · On: Salem Al-Dawsari · Off: Crysencio Summerville
  52. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Al-Hilal Saudi FC · On: Nasser Al-Dawsari · Off: Mohamed Kanno
  53. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Al-Hilal Saudi FC · On: Ali Lajami · Off: Gabriel Martinelli
  54. 98′Full time, 1–0. We called Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 83% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
  55. FTFULL TIME Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1–0 Al-Hazm
  56. FTAl-Hilal Saudi FC 1–0 Al-Hazm · Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Hilal Saudi FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 83%, draw 12%, Al-Hazm 6%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-HazmBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Al-Hilal Saudi FC win83%
Draw12%
Al-Hazm win6%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueKingdom Arena

Line-ups

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

4-1-4-1

Al-Hazm

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Al-Hazm

6Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

Last match: 15 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Al-Hilal Saudi FC8+1921
11Al-Hazm9−39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

4-1-4-1

37 Y. Bounou

2 Mohammed Mater Mohsin Mahzari

87 Hassan Tambakti

3 K. Koulibaly

19 T. Hernández

8 Rúben Neves

7 Gabriel Martinelli

22 S. Milinković-Savić

28 Mohamed Kanno

38 C. Summerville

11 O. Watkins

Coach · S. Inzaghi

Substitutes

77 · Nawaf Al Habashi

29 · Salem Al Dawsari

6 · Nasser Al Dawsari

24 · Moteb Al Harbi

18 · Murad Al Hawsawi

33 · Mohammed Al Owais

72 · S. Dahal

78 · Ali Lajami

27 · Sultan Mandash

Al-Hazm

5-4-1

36 J. Staněk

82 Abdulaziz Al-Harbi

4 Sultan Tanker

34 Abdulrahman Al-Dakheel

3 A. Ben Hmida

27 Ahmed Al Nakhli

28 S. Bendebka

17 Bonheur Mugisha

24 A. Bah

29 Aboubacar Diakite

9 Afimico Pululu

Coach · J. Kadri

Substitutes

77 · M. Al Hamdani

70 · Ahmed Al Shamrani

13 · Abdullah Al Shanqiti

11 · Waleed Al Shanqiti

95 · Jaser Ateeq

10 · A. Sayoud

88 · K. Abduljawad

23 · Ibrahim Zaid

5 · Mohammed Issa

Our number · al-hilal saudi fc winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 16 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off
83% The market88%
Us83%
Market88%

We make Al-Hilal Saudi FC an 83% chance to win. The market has them at 88%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 3.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-Hazm3.14 – 0.75
Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 28 AugW5 D0 L1 · W1 D3 L2
Table places · points 21 v 92 v 11
The market · Al-Hilal Saudi FC win88% · ours 83%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
80%85%90% 13 OCT 05:4519 OCT 18:43
Our probability · Al-Hilal Saudi FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 82%, 83% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 88% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Al-Hilal Saudi FC win83%88%−5
Draw12%8%+4
Al-Hazm win6%4%+2
Over 2.5 goals74%76%−2
Both teams to score50%40%+10
Over 1.5 goals90%88%+2
Over 3.5 goals54%56%−2
Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw94%96%−2
Al-Hilal Saudi FC clean sheet47%––
Al-Hazm clean sheet5%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 10.3%
0123450 2.5 1 6.3 5.3 2 10.0 7.5 2.9 3 10.3 7.6 2.9 4 8.1 5.9 2.2 5 5.2 3.8
under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Hilal Saudi FC down, Al-Hazm across0–5 goals a side shown (89.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.86
Over 2.55 of 7
Both scored2 of 7
Last meetingsHAZ 0–3 HIL · HIL 3–0 HAZ · HIL 4–1 HAZ · HAZ 0–9 HIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 28 Aug

AL-HILAL SAUDI FC

WWWLWW5–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 6–0 · 3–2

AL-HAZM

DDWLDL1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Al-Qadisiyah FC9+1422
2Al-Hilal Saudi FC8+1921
3Al-Nassr8+1219
4Al-Ittihad FC8+517
5NEOM9+616
6Al-Ahli Jeddah8+1015
7Al-Ettifaq9+115
8Al Diriyah9−112
9Al Kholood9−412
10Al Khaleej Saihat10−412
11Al-Hazm9−39
12Al Riyadh8−89
13Al Shabab8−27
14Al-Fayha9−67
15Al-Faisaly FC8−76
16Al-Fateh10−116
17Al Taawon9−124
18Abha8−92

The competition's standings before kick-off.