Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-Fateh prediction · Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al-Hilal Saudi FCDrawAl-Fateh

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Al-Hilal Saudi FC 80%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Hilal Saudi FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 80%, draw 12%, Al-Fateh 7%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-FatehBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Al-Hilal Saudi FC win80%

Draw12%

Al-Fateh win7%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueKingdom Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Al-Fateh

8Days since last match9

Last match: 23 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 22 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-hilal saudi fc winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

80% The market–

Us80%

We make Al-Hilal Saudi FC an 80% chance to win. The model expects 3.1–0.9, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-Fateh~~3.11 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 4 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 27 v 6~~1 v 16

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Hilal Saudi FC win	80%	–	–
Draw	12%	–	–
Al-Fateh win	7%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	–	–
Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw	93%	–	–
Al-Hilal Saudi FC clean sheet	42%	–	–
Al-Fateh clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 9.2%

0123450 2.3 1 5.7 5.4 2.3 2 9.0 7.8 3.4 3 9.2 7.9 3.5 4 7.1 6.1 2.7 5 4.5 3.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Hilal Saudi FC down, Al-Fateh across0–5 goals a side shown (89.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,492 Pro League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.90 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Fateh away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.11 goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 0.87 for Al-Fateh. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.90

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALF 0–1 ALH · ALH 4–1 ALF · ALH 2–1 ALF · ALF 3–4 ALH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 4 Sept

AL-HILAL SAUDI FC

WLWWWW2–0 · 0–2 · 6–0 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 3–2

AL-FATEH

LLLWLL1–2 · 2–4 · 0–4 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	10	+21	27
2	Al-Nassr	10	+15	25
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	11	+14	25
4	Al-Ittihad FC	10	+10	23
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	10	+14	21
6	NEOM	11	+7	19
7	Al-Ettifaq	11	+1	18
8	Al Diriyah	11	−2	15
9	Al Kholood	10	−7	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	11	−7	12
11	Al Riyadh	10	−8	12
12	Al Shabab	10	0	11
13	Al-Hazm	11	−4	10
14	Al-Fayha	11	−7	8
15	Al-Faisaly FC	10	−9	7
16	Al-Fateh	11	−13	6
17	Al Taawon	11	−14	4
18	Abha	9	−11	2