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Al-Hazm v NEOM

Al-Hazm

1–1Full time

NEOM

Pro League · SAT 10 OCT · Al Hazm Club Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Al-Hazm 1–1 NEOM NEOM WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said NEOM win~~45%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.810

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.951

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said NEOM win at 45%.
2′Little has changed for our model: NEOM 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 29–26–45
2′KICK-OFF Al-Hazm v NEOM
18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Abdulaziz Al-Dwehe · Al-Hazm
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Al-Hazm 0–0 NEOM · Aboubacar·Diakite
45′SUBSTITUTION · 42' NEOM · On: Khalifah Al-Dawsari · Off: Amadou Koné Corrected
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Al-Hazm 1–0 NEOM · Aboubacar·Diakite
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' NEOM · On: Saïd Benrahma · Off: Haroune Camara Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' NEOM · On: Khalil Al-Absi · Off: Muhanad Al Saad Corrected
45′SECOND HALF Al-Hazm 1–0 NEOM
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Al-Hazm 1–0 NEOM · Saïd Benrahma (assist Georgios Masouras)
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Al-Hazm 1–1 NEOM · Saïd Benrahma
65′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Abdulaziz Al-Dwehe · Al-Hazm
65′⚽ GOAL · 41' Al-Hazm 1–1 NEOM · Aboubacar·Diakite (assist Ahmed Al-Nakhli)
65′SUBSTITUTION · 42' NEOM · On: Khalifah Al-Dawsari · Off: Amadou Koné Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 45' NEOM · On: Saïd Benrahma · Off: Haroune Camara Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 45' NEOM · On: Khalil Al-Absi · Off: Muhanad Al Saad Corrected
65′⚽ GOAL · 55' Al-Hazm 1–1 NEOM · Saïd Benrahma (assist Georgios Masouras)
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Al-Hazm · On: Waleed Al-Shanqiti · Off: Aboubacar·Diakite Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Al-Hazm · On: Mohammed Al Hamdani · Off: Abdulaziz Al-Dwehe Corrected
74′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Sofiane Bendebka · Al-Hazm
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Abdurahman Al-Dakheel · Al-Hazm
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' NEOM · On: Abbas Al Hassan · Off: Georgios Masouras Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Al-Hazm · On: Mohamed Amine Ben Hamida · Off: Amir Saâyoud Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Al-Hazm · On: Mory Konate · Off: Abdurahman Al-Dakheel Corrected
93′SUBSTITUTION · 93' NEOM · On: Mohammed Al-Burayk · Off: Valentín Vada Corrected
FTFULL TIME Al-Hazm 1–1 NEOM
FTAl-Hazm 1–1 NEOM · NEOM win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Al-Hazm win28%

Draw27%

NEOM win45%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:50

Venue · Al Hazm Club Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Al-Hazm

4-3-3

36 J. Stanek

2 S. Al Rashid

4 S. Tunkar

34 A. Al Dakheel

27 A. Al Nakhli

24 A. Bah

17 B. Mugisha

28 S. Bendebka

22 A. Al Dwehe

10 A. Sayoud

29 A. Diakite

Coach · Jalel Kadri

Substitutes

23 · I. Zaied

3 · M. Ben Hamida

13 · A. Al Shanqiti

95 · J. Ateeq

8 · M. Konate

5 · M. Al Yami

11 · W. Al Shanqiti

88 · K. Abduljawad

77 · M. Al Hamdani

NEOM

4-4-2

1 M. Bulka

15 A. Al Oyayari

5 M. Sarr

44 N. Zeze

27 I. Hawsawi

77 M. Al Saad

23 V. Vada

72 A. Kone

7 G. Masouras

91 A. Lacazette

70 H. Camara

Coach · Christophe Galtier

Substitutes

33 · A. Dagriri

2 · M. Al Burayk

75 · K. Al Rammah

55 · M. Al Dossary

4 · K. Al Dawsari

8 · F. Al Ghamdi

6 · A. Al Hassan

10 · S. Benrahma

14 · K. Al Absi

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Hazm

4-3-3

36 J. Stanek

2 S. Al Rashid

4 S. Tunkar

34 A. Al Dakheel

27 A. Al Nakhli

24 A. Bah

17 B. Mugisha

28 S. Bendebka

22 A. Al Dwehe

10 A. Sayoud

29 A. Diakite

Coach · Jalel Kadri

Substitutes

23 · I. Zaied

3 · M. Ben Hamida

13 · A. Al Shanqiti

95 · J. Ateeq

8 · M. Konate

5 · M. Al Yami

11 · W. Al Shanqiti

88 · K. Abduljawad

77 · M. Al Hamdani

NEOM

4-4-2

1 M. Bulka

15 A. Al Oyayari

5 M. Sarr

44 N. Zeze

27 I. Hawsawi

77 M. Al Saad

23 V. Vada

72 A. Kone

7 G. Masouras

91 A. Lacazette

70 H. Camara

Coach · Christophe Galtier

Substitutes

33 · A. Dagriri

2 · M. Al Burayk

75 · K. Al Rammah

55 · M. Al Dossary

4 · K. Al Dawsari

8 · F. Al Ghamdi

6 · A. Al Hassan

10 · S. Benrahma

14 · K. Al Absi

Our number · neom winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

45% The market58%

Us45%

~~Market~~58%

We make NEOM a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · neom win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 53% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Hazm win	28%	19%	+9
Draw	27%	24%	+4
NEOM win	45%	58%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	48%	53%	−5
Both teams to score	52%	51%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	76%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	31%	−5
Al-Hazm or draw	55%	42%	+13
Al-Hazm clean sheet	23%	–	–
NEOM clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.3 10.4 8.1 4.0 1 7.8 12.8 8.9 4.4 2 4.7 6.8 5.0 2.5 3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Hazm down, NEOM across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,464 Pro League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.1% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Hazm at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). NEOM away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Al-Hazm, 1.48 for NEOM. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NEO 1–1 ALH · ALH 1–2 NEO

Form · last six in Pro League

AL-HAZM

LLDDWL0–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–3

NEOM

WLLWWW2–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Qadisiyah FC	8	+13	19
2	Al-Nassr	8	+12	19
3	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	7	+18	18
4	Al-Ittihad FC	7	+6	17
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	8	+10	15
6	NEOM	7	+7	15
7	Al Kholood	8	−3	12
8	Al-Ettifaq	7	0	11
9	Al Diriyah	8	−1	11
10	Al-Hazm	7	−2	8
11	Al Riyadh	7	−8	8
12	Al-Fayha	7	−4	6
13	Al Khaleej Saihat	7	−7	5
14	Al Shabab	7	−5	4
15	Al-Faisaly FC	7	−8	3
16	Al Taawon	7	−9	3
17	Al-Fateh	8	−11	3
18	Abha	7	−8	2