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Al-Hazm v Al-Fayha

Al-Hazm
2–2Full time
Al-Fayha

Pro League · THU 22 OCT · Al Hazm Club Stadium

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 17:30
Al-Hazm 2–2 Al-Fayha AL-HAZM WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al-Hazm win37%
The market said42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.762
The market’s Brier score0.784

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Hazm win at 37%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Al-Hazm 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–29–34
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Al-Hazm v Al-Fayha
  4. 5′We said Al-Hazm at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 1–0 · 66–20–14
  5. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Al-Hazm 1–0 Al-Fayha
  6. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Al-Hazm win: 37% at kick-off, 66% now
  7. 6′5′: Bonheur Mugisha on the scoresheet for Al-Hazm, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 66–20–14
  8. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Al-Hazm win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–10
  10. 34′Al-Fayha level it on 33′ through Fashion Sakala. 1–1. 1–1 · 32–37–30
  11. 34′⚽ GOAL · 33' Al-Hazm 1–1 Al-Fayha · Fashion Sakala
  12. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Al-Hazm win: 37% at kick-off, 32% now
  13. 34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Al-Hazm win 69%)
  14. 38′SUBSTITUTION · 37' Al-Fayha · On: Turki Al Jaadi · Off: Ahmed Bamasud
  15. 43′Al-Fayha have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 30–41–28
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Al-Hazm 1–1 Al-Fayha
  17. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al-Hazm · On: Mohammed Al Hamdani · Off: Abdulaziz Al-Harbi
  18. 46′SECOND HALF Al-Hazm 1–1 Al-Fayha
  19. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Al-Hazm win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
  20. 58′We said Al-Hazm at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–51–24
  21. 60′We said Al-Hazm at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–23
  22. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Sofiane Bendebka · Al-Hazm
  23. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Al-Hazm · On: Waleed Al-Shanqiti · Off: Afimico Pululu
  24. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Al-Hazm · On: Ahmed Al-Shamrani · Off: Sofiane Bendebka
  25. 69′We said Al-Hazm at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
  26. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Al-Hazm 1–2 Al-Fayha
  27. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Al-Hazm win: 37% at kick-off, 3% now
  28. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Al-Fayha win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 62%)
  29. 70′An own goal by Al-Hazm's Sultan Tanker on 69′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 3–17–81
  30. 70′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 3–17–81
  31. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Ali Al-Hussain · Al-Fayha
  32. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Al-Fayha · On: Fahad Al Hubayshi · Off: Yago Souza
  33. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Al-Hazm · On: Jaser Muneer Shleaah Ateeq · Off: Mohamed Amine Ben Hamida
  34. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Al-Fayha · On: Mokher Al-Rashidi · Off: Hugo Moura
  35. 90′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 4–92–4
  36. 90′89′: Amir Saâyoud on the scoresheet for Al-Hazm, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 4–92–4
  37. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Al-Hazm 2–2 Al-Fayha
  38. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Al-Fayha win 96%)
  39. FTFULL TIME Al-Hazm 2–2 Al-Fayha
  40. FTAl-Hazm 2–2 Al-Fayha · Al-Hazm win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Al-Hazm just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Hazm 37%, draw 29%, Al-Fayha 34%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Al-Hazm v Al-FayhaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Al-Hazm win37%
Draw29%
Al-Fayha win34%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 14:40

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAl Hazm Club Stadium

Line-ups

Al-Hazm

4-2-3-1

Al-Fayha

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Hazm

Al-Fayha

3Days since last match3

Last match: 19 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 19 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
11Al-Hazm10−49
15Al-Fayha10−77

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Hazm

4-2-3-1

36 J. Staněk

82 Abdulaziz Al-Harbi

4 Sultan Tanker

34 Abdulrahman Al-Dakheel

3 A. Ben Hmida

17 Bonheur Mugisha

24 A. Bah

10 A. Sayoud

28 S. Bendebka

27 Ahmed Al Nakhli

9 Afimico Pululu

Coach · J. Kadri

Substitutes

70 · Ahmed Al Shamrani

77 · M. Al Hamdani

88 · K. Abduljawad

13 · Abdullah Al Shanqiti

11 · Waleed Al Shanqiti

5 · Mohammed Issa

95 · Jaser Ateeq

8 · M. Konaté

23 · Ibrahim Zaid

Al-Fayha

4-4-2

52 O. Mosquera

22 Mohammed Al Baqawi

21 Ziyad Al Sahafi

25 O. Colley

24 Ahmed Bamasud

40 Yago Santana

6 Ali Al Hussain

30 Alfa Semedo

5 Hugo Moura

23 Jason

10 F. Sakala

Coach · Fábio Carille

Substitutes

9 · Malek Al Abdulmanam

14 · Mansor Al Beshe

1 · Abdulraoof Al-Deqeel

12 · Turki Al Jaadi

67 · Danyal Al Habeeb

7 · Nawaf Al-Harthi

2 · Mukhir Al Rashidi

43 · Fahad Majed Alhubayshi

77 · R. Enad

Our number · al-hazm winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off
37% The market42%
Us37%
Market42%

We make Al-Hazm a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Al-Hazm v Al-Fayha1.24 – 1.18
Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 3 SeptW1 D2 L3 · W0 D3 L3
Table places · points 9 v 711 v 15
The market · Al-Hazm win42% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 16 OCT 00:0022 OCT 14:10
Our probability · Al-Hazm win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Al-Hazm win37%42%−5
Draw29%28%+1
Al-Fayha win34%30%+4
Over 2.5 goals43%49%−6
Both teams to score49%54%−5
Over 1.5 goals70%72%−2
Over 3.5 goals23%29%−6
Al-Hazm or draw66%70%−4
Al-Hazm clean sheet31%––
Al-Fayha clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%
0123450 9.8 9.9 6.2 2.5 1 10.4 13.5 7.5 3.0 2 6.8 7.9 4.7 3 2.8 3.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Hazm down, Al-Fayha across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.83
Over 2.52 of 6
Both scored2 of 6
Last meetingsALH 2–0 ALF · ALF 0–0 ALH · ALH 1–3 ALF · ALF 0–0 ALH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 3 Sept

AL-HAZM

DWLDLL0–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1

AL-FAYHA

DLDDLL2–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Al-Qadisiyah FC10+1525
2Al-Hilal Saudi FC9+2024
3Al-Nassr9+1322
4Al-Ittihad FC9+820
5Al-Ahli Jeddah9+1118
6NEOM10+516
7Al Diriyah10015
8Al-Ettifaq10−215
9Al Kholood9−412
10Al Khaleej Saihat10−412
11Al-Hazm10−49
12Al Riyadh9−99
13Al Shabab9−28
14Al-Faisaly FC9−77
15Al-Fayha10−77
16Al-Fateh10−116
17Al Taawon10−134
18Abha8−92

The competition's standings before kick-off.