Al-Fayha v Al Riyadh prediction · Pro League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Al-Fayha 1–1 Al Riyadh AL-FAYHA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Al-Fayha win~~44%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.785

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.791

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Fayha win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al-Fayha was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
1′KICK-OFF Al-Fayha v Al Riyadh
4′Much as we predicted: Al-Fayha was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–29
17′16′ and it is 1–0: Lázaro Vinicius Marques on the scoresheet for Al-Fayha. 1–0 · 72–19–9
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Al-Fayha 1–0 Al Riyadh · Lázaro Vinicius Marques
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Al-Fayha win: 44% at kick-off, 72% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Al-Fayha win: 44% at kick-off, 43% now
18′16′ and it is 1–0: Lázaro Vinicius Marques on the scoresheet for Al-Fayha. 1–0 · 72–19–9
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Al-Fayha win: 44% at kick-off, 43% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Al-Fayha win: 44% at kick-off, 72% now
19′We published Al-Fayha at 44%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
28′We published Al-Fayha at 44%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–19–8
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–8
32′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 74–19–7
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Al-Fayha win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Al-Fayha win: 44% at kick-off, 73% now
34′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Bernard Mensah · Al Riyadh
39′We published Al-Fayha at 44%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
40′We published Al-Fayha at 44%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Al-Fayha win: 44% at kick-off, 75% now
45′HALF-TIME Al-Fayha 1–0 Al Riyadh
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al Riyadh · On: Hussain Qasim · Off: Sulaiman Hazazi Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al Riyadh · On: Mahmoud Trezeguet · Off: Essam Hassan Abdullah Bahri Corrected
46′SECOND HALF Al-Fayha 1–0 Al Riyadh
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Ali Al-Hussain · Al-Fayha
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Al Riyadh · On: Fahad Mohammed Al-Jayzani · Off: Hussam Majrashi Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Al-Fayha · On: Yago Souza · Off: Lázaro Vinicius Marques Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Al-Fayha · On: Nawaf Al-Harthi · Off: Alfa Semedo Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Al Riyadh · On: Hussain Al-Raqwani · Off: Hassan Hashim Al-Ali Corrected
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Kader Keita · Al Riyadh
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Al Riyadh · On: Hussain Al Shurafa · Off: Sultan Al-Essa Corrected
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Hussain Al Shurafa · Al Riyadh
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Al-Fayha · On: Rayan Enad · Off: Ali Al-Hussain Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Al-Fayha · On: Malek Al-Abdulmonam · Off: Jason Remeseiro Corrected
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Al-Fayha 1–1 Al Riyadh · Mahmoud Trezeguet
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Fashion Sakala · Al-Fayha
FTFULL TIME Al-Fayha 1–1 Al Riyadh
FTAl-Fayha 1–1 Al Riyadh · Al-Fayha win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Al-Fayha win44%

Draw28%

Al Riyadh win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:40

VenueAl Majma’a Sport City

Line-ups

Al-Fayha

4-3-3

Al Riyadh

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Al-Fayha

Al Riyadh

29Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Al Riyadh	7	−8	8
12	Al-Fayha	7	−4	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Fayha

4-3-3

52 O. Mosquera

22 M. Al Baqawi

2 M. Al Rashidi

25 O. Colley

24 A. Bamsaud

30 Alfa Semedo

5 Hugo Moura

6 A. Al Hussain

23 Jason Remeseiro

17 Lazaro

10 F. Sakala

Coach · Carille Fabio

Substitutes

1 · A. Al Duqayl

12 · T. Al Jaadi

21 · Z. Al Sahafi

7 · N. Al Harthi

14 · M. Al Beshe

40 · Yago Souza

43 · F. Alhubayshi

9 · M. Al Abdulmanam

77 · R. Enad

Al Riyadh

4-2-3-1

82 M. Borjan

2 S. Al Essa

5 H. Majrashi

26 R. Abascal

12 S. Hazazi

6 K. Keita

43 B. Mensah

10 T. Okou

22 V. Lekhal

14 H. A. Bahri E.

11 H. Al Ali

Coach · Mauricio Dulac

Substitutes

97 · E. Fida

23 · H. Qasim

13 · O. Al Boardi

32 · A. Dahal

19 · H. Al Shurafa

79 · F. Al Jayzani

3 · Y. Al Musa

7 · Trezeguet

17 · H. Al Raqwani

Our number · al-fayha winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

44% The market44%

Us44%

~~Market~~44%

We make Al-Fayha a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Fayha win	44%	44%	0
Draw	28%	28%	0
Al Riyadh win	28%	28%	0
Over 2.5 goals	45%	49%	−5
Both teams to score	50%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	71%	73%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	24%	28%	−5
Al-Fayha or draw	72%	72%	0
Al-Fayha clean sheet	35%	–	–
Al Riyadh clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.4 8.4 4.9 1 11.2 13.2 6.7 2.4 2 8.2 8.7 4.6 3 3.9 4.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Fayha down, Al Riyadh across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,467 Pro League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Fayha at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Al Riyadh away: 1.33 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Al-Fayha, 1.07 for Al Riyadh. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 14:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALF 4–2 ALR · ALR 1–1 ALF · ALR 0–0 ALF · ALF 2–0 ALR

Form · last six in Pro League

AL-FAYHA

LDWDLD0–3 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

AL RIYADH

LDWLDW0–4 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	8	+19	21
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	8	+13	19
3	Al-Nassr	8	+12	19
4	Al-Ittihad FC	8	+5	17
5	NEOM	8	+7	16
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	8	+10	15
7	Al-Ettifaq	8	0	12
8	Al Kholood	8	−3	12
9	Al Diriyah	8	−1	11
10	Al-Hazm	8	−2	9
11	Al Riyadh	7	−8	8
12	Al-Fayha	7	−4	6
13	Al Khaleej Saihat	8	−7	6
14	Al Shabab	7	−5	4
15	Al-Faisaly FC	7	−8	3
16	Al Taawon	7	−9	3
17	Al-Fateh	8	−11	3
18	Abha	7	−8	2