Al-Fayha v Al-Faisaly FC prediction · Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al-FayhaDrawAl-Faisaly FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:55

Before kick-off · Match result · Al-Fayha 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Al-Fayha just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Fayha 38%, draw 28%, Al-Faisaly FC 34%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Al-Fayha v Al-Faisaly FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Al-Fayha win38%

Draw28%

Al-Faisaly FC win34%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:55

RoundMatchday 12

VenueKing Abdullah Sports City Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Fayha

Al-Faisaly FC

9Days since last match8

Last match: 22 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 23 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Al-Fayha	11	−7	8
15	Al-Faisaly FC	10	−9	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-fayha winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Al-Fayha a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Fayha v Al-Faisaly FC~~1.26 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 7~~14 v 15

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Fayha win	38%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Al-Faisaly FC win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Al-Fayha or draw	66%	–	–
Al-Fayha clean sheet	31%	–	–
Al-Faisaly FC clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.6 9.6 6.1 2.5 1 10.3 13.3 7.5 3.0 2 6.9 7.9 4.7 3 2.9 3.4 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Fayha down, Al-Faisaly FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,492 Pro League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Fayha at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Faisaly FC away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Al-Fayha, 1.19 for Al-Faisaly FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FAY 0–0 FAI · FAI 2–1 FAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 5 Sept

AL-FAYHA

LDDLLD1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 2–2

AL-FAISALY FC

DDLWDL0–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	10	+21	27
2	Al-Nassr	10	+15	25
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	11	+14	25
4	Al-Ittihad FC	10	+10	23
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	10	+14	21
6	NEOM	11	+7	19
7	Al-Ettifaq	11	+1	18
8	Al Diriyah	11	−2	15
9	Al Kholood	10	−7	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	11	−7	12
11	Al Riyadh	10	−8	12
12	Al Shabab	10	0	11
13	Al-Hazm	11	−4	10
14	Al-Fayha	11	−7	8
15	Al-Faisaly FC	10	−9	7
16	Al-Fateh	11	−13	6
17	Al Taawon	11	−14	4
18	Abha	9	−11	2