Al-Fateh v Al Shabab prediction · Pro League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 18:30

Al-Fateh 1–3 Al Shabab AL SHABAB WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Shabab win~~41%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.523

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.469

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Shabab win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Shabab was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 34–25–41
1′KICK-OFF Al-Fateh v Al Shabab
5′Al Shabab find the net on 4′. 0–0 · 34–26–41
17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Ali Al-Bulaihi · Al Shabab
18′Ricardo Mathias scores for Al Shabab on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–19–67
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Al-Fateh 0–1 Al Shabab · Ricardo Mathias
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Al Shabab win: 41% at kick-off, 67% now
19′We published Al Shabab at 41%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 13–19–67
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 12–20–68
32′31′: Ali Al-Bulaihi on the scoresheet for Al Shabab, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–89
32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Al-Fateh 0–2 Al Shabab · Ali Al-Bulaihi
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Al Shabab win: 41% at kick-off, 89% now
33′We published Al Shabab at 41%. Our model now makes it 89%. 0–2 · 3–8–89
34′We published Al Shabab at 41%. Our model now makes it 89%. 0–2 · 3–8–89
36′We published Al Shabab at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–2 · 3–8–90
40′We published Al Shabab at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–2 · 10–20–70
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Al-Fateh 1–2 Al Shabab
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Al Shabab win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
41′Al-Fateh pull one back on 40′ through Lukáš Haraslín. 1–2. 1–2 · 10–20–70
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Daniel Podence · Al Shabab
45′HALF-TIME Al-Fateh 1–2 Al Shabab
45′SECOND HALF Al-Fateh 1–2 Al Shabab
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al Shabab · On: Abdullah Ahmed Musa Al Hawsawi · Off: Mohammed Al-Thain
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al-Fateh · On: Ziyad Maher Al Jari · Off: Abdul Rahman Al Khaibari
55′Ali Al-Bulaihi scores for Al Shabab on 54′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–93
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Al-Fateh 1–3 Al Shabab · Ali Al-Bulaihi
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Al Shabab win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
56′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–5–94
60′We published Al Shabab at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–3 · 1–5–95
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Al-Fateh · On: Abdulaziz Al-Suwailem · Off: Abdulelah Al Khaibari
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Al-Fateh · On: Faisal Abdulwahed · Off: Zaydou Youssouf
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Al Shabab · On: Adel Abbas Qasem · Off: Abdullah Matuq
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Al Shabab · On: Ali Al-Asmari · Off: Yacine Adli
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Ziyad Maher Al Jari · Al-Fateh
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Al Shabab · On: Abdulrahman Al-Oboud · Off: Daniel Podence
75′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Al-Fateh
76′A red card for Al-Fateh on 75′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–3 · 0–2–98
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Al-Fateh · On: Fahad Al Zubaidi · Off: Wilfried Kanga
85′We published Al Shabab at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Al-Fateh · On: Saad Al-Shurafa · Off: Mourad Batna
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Al Shabab · On: Sultan Al-Anzi · Off: Dhari Sayyar Al Anazi
FTFULL TIME Al-Fateh 1–3 Al Shabab
FTAl-Fateh 1–3 Al Shabab · Al Shabab win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Shabab are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Fateh 34%, draw 25%, Al Shabab 41%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Al-Fateh v Al ShababBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Al-Fateh win34%

Draw25%

Al Shabab win41%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 15:45

RoundMatchday 11

VenuePrince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium

Line-ups

Al-Fateh

5-4-1

Al Shabab

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Fateh

Al Shabab

4Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 19 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Al Shabab	9	−2	8
16	Al-Fateh	10	−11	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Fateh

5-4-1

1 A. Šemper

22 Abdul Rahman Al Khaibari

8 M. Lixandru

17 M. Saâdane

3 K. Boateng

16 Abdulelah Al Khaibari

11 M. Batna

28 Z. Youssouf

6 Ali Al Hassan

10 L. Haraslín

9 W. Kanga

Coach · J. Sellami

Substitutes

78 · Abdulaziz Al Suwailem

80 · Faisal Al Abdulwahed

19 · R. Kelder

94 · Waleed Al Anzi

18 · Abdulaziz Al Fawaz

4 · Ziyad Al Jari

7 · Fahad Al Zubaidi

88 · Othman Al-Othma

49 · Saad Al Sharfa

Al Shabab

4-4-2

1 M. Diaw

17 Mohammed Fuad Ibrahim Al Thani

4 T. Jedvaj

55 Ali Al Bulayhi

21 Dhari Al Anazi

37 A. Matuq

8 J. Brownhill

29 Y. Adli

11 Daniel Podence

9 Roger Martínez

49 Ricardo Mathias

Coach · T. Letsch

Substitutes

40 · Ali Al Asmari

27 · Abdullah Al Hawsawi

12 · S. Al Anzi

33 · Mohammed Al Mahasneh

6 · Awad Al Nashri

24 · Abdulrahman Al Obud

97 · Mourad Khodari

5 · Ali Makki

35 · Adel Abbas Qasem

Our number · al shabab winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

41% The market44%

Us41%

~~Market~~44%

We make Al Shabab a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Fateh v Al Shabab~~1.43 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 8~~16 v 13

~~The market · Al Shabab win~~44% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Shabab win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Fateh win	34%	31%	+3
Draw	25%	25%	0
Al Shabab win	41%	44%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	58%	63%	−5
Both teams to score	61%	64%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	82%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	36%	42%	−6
Al-Fateh or draw	59%	56%	+3
Al-Fateh clean sheet	20%	–	–
Al Shabab clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.5 7.2 6.2 3.3 1 6.4 11.5 8.7 4.7 2 5.0 7.8 6.2 3.3 3 2.4 3.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Fateh down, Al Shabab across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,483 Pro League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Fateh at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Al Shabab away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Al-Fateh, 1.60 for Al Shabab. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALS 1–1 ALF · ALF 2–0 ALS · ALF 3–1 ALS · ALS 2–2 ALF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 30 Aug

AL-FATEH

DLLLWL0–0 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 0–4 · 3–2 · 2–3

AL SHABAB

DLLDWD1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Qadisiyah FC	10	+15	25
2	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	9	+20	24
3	Al-Nassr	9	+13	22
4	Al-Ittihad FC	9	+8	20
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	9	+11	18
6	NEOM	10	+5	16
7	Al Diriyah	10	0	15
8	Al-Ettifaq	10	−2	15
9	Al Kholood	9	−4	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	10	−4	12
11	Al-Hazm	10	−4	9
12	Al Riyadh	9	−9	9
13	Al Shabab	9	−2	8
14	Al-Faisaly FC	9	−7	7
15	Al-Fayha	10	−7	7
16	Al-Fateh	10	−11	6
17	Al Taawon	10	−13	4
18	Abha	8	−9	2