Al-Faisaly FC v Al-Nassr prediction · Pro League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 17:02

Al-Faisaly FC 1–3 Al-Nassr AL-NASSR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Nassr win~~67%

~~The market said~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.164

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.085

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Nassr win at 67%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al-Nassr 67% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 14–19–67
1′KICK-OFF Al-Faisaly FC v Al-Nassr
5′We said Al-Nassr at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 0–1 · 5–9–86
5′Al-Nassr ahead on 4′ through Abdullah Al-Hamdan. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–9–86
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Al-Faisaly FC 0–1 Al-Nassr
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Al-Nassr win: 67% at kick-off, 86% now
15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Awad Aman · Al-Nassr
25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Samu Costa · Al-Nassr
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 4–11–85
45′SECOND HALF Al-Faisaly FC 0–1 Al-Nassr
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al-Nassr · On: Ayman Yahya · Off: Awad Aman
47′HALF-TIME Al-Faisaly FC 0–1 Al-Nassr
48′We said Al-Nassr at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–2 · 0–3–97
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Al-Faisaly FC 0–2 Al-Nassr
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Al-Nassr win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
50′Cristiano Ronaldo scores for Al-Nassr on 49′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–97
51′We said Al-Nassr at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Al-Faisaly FC 0–3 Al-Nassr
53′GOAL DISALLOWED · 53' Al-Nassr
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Al-Faisaly FC · On: Theo Bongonda · Off: Abdulaziz Al-Bishi
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Al-Faisaly FC · On: Jaime Seoane · Off: Eid Al-Muwallad
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Al-Faisaly FC · On: Abdullah Subayt · Off: Mohammed Jahfali
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Al-Faisaly FC 1–2 Al-Nassr
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Al-Nassr win: 67% at kick-off, 87% now
67′66′: Theo Bongonda on the scoresheet for Al-Faisaly FC, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 1–11–87
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Al-Nassr · On: Angelo Borges · Off: Samu Costa
75′We said Al-Nassr at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
78′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–1–99
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Al-Faisaly FC 1–3 Al-Nassr
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Al-Nassr win: 67% at kick-off, 99% now
80′Al-Nassr ahead on 79′ through Angelo Borges. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Al-Faisaly FC · On: Abdulrahman Al Shereaf · Off: Abdullah Al-Mogren
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Al-Nassr · On: Saad Haqawi · Off: Abdullah Al-Hamdan
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Al-Nassr · On: Sami Al-Najei · Off: Abdullah Al-Khaibari
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Al-Faisaly FC · On: Abdulrahman Al Safari · Off: Mohammed Ali Al Shanqiti
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Al-Nassr · On: Salem Al-Najdi · Off: Sadio Mané
FTFULL TIME Al-Faisaly FC 1–3 Al-Nassr
FTAl-Faisaly FC 1–3 Al-Nassr · Al-Nassr win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Nassr are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Faisaly FC 14%, draw 19%, Al-Nassr 67%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Al-Faisaly FC v Al-NassrBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al-Faisaly FC win14%

Draw19%

Al-Nassr win67%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAl Majma’a Sport City

Line-ups

Al-Faisaly FC

3-4-3

Al-Nassr

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Faisaly FC

Al-Nassr

4Days since last match3

Last match: 19 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 20 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Al-Nassr	9	+13	22
15	Al-Faisaly FC	9	−7	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Faisaly FC

3-4-3

1 Fernando Pacheco

5 Andrei Girotto

4 A. Seck

70 Mohammed Jahfali

2 Yaseen Barnawi

8 Flávio

6 Eid Al Muwallad

50 Mohammed Ali Al Shanqiti

24 Abdulaziz Al Bishi

19 Alexandre Mendy

14 Abdullah Almuqrin

Coach · G. Solinas

Substitutes

87 · A. Ba

26 · Mohammed Al Hasawi

47 · Faisal Mohammed Ibrahim Al Fahad

18 · Abdulrahman Al Safari

77 · A. Al Shereaf

10 · T. Bongonda

11 · A. Ella

88 · Saud Haddad

20 · Jaime Seoane

Al-Nassr

4-2-3-1

24 Bento

12 Nawaf Boushal

5 Abdulelah Al Amri

26 Íñigo Martínez

70 Awad Aman

17 Abdullah Al Khaibari

11 Samú Costa

9 Abdullah Al Hamdan

79 João Félix

10 S. Mané

7 Cristiano Ronaldo

Coach · A. Postecoglou

Substitutes

83 · Salem Al Najdi

14 · Sami Al Naji

6 · Saad Al Nasser

20 · Ângelo

60 · Saad Haqawi

50 · Majed Qasheesh

23 · Ayman Yahya

22 · Abdulhadi Al Alwan

8 · Hayder Abdulkareem

Our number · al-nassr winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

67% The market76%

Us67%

~~Market~~76%

We make Al-Nassr a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Faisaly FC v Al-Nassr~~0.94 – 2.31

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 22~~15 v 3

~~The market · Al-Nassr win~~76% · ours 67%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Nassr win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Faisaly FC win	14%	9%	+5
Draw	19%	14%	+5
Al-Nassr win	67%	76%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	63%	68%	−5
Both teams to score	55%	52%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	83%	85%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	41%	47%	−6
Al-Faisaly FC or draw	33%	24%	+9
Al-Faisaly FC clean sheet	10%	–	–
Al-Nassr clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.2%

0123450 4.6 8.7 10.2 7.8 4.6 2.21 3.4 8.8 9.4 7.2 4.2 2 4.0 4.5 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Faisaly FC down, Al-Nassr across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,485 Pro League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.2% of games this season, across 87 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Faisaly FC at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Nassr away: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Al-Faisaly FC, 2.31 for Al-Nassr. Most likely score 0–2.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 14:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALN 4–0 ALF · ALF 2–1 ALN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 28 Aug

AL-FAISALY FC

LDDLWD1–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 2–2

AL-NASSR

WLWDWW2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Qadisiyah FC	10	+15	25
2	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	9	+20	24
3	Al-Nassr	9	+13	22
4	Al-Ittihad FC	9	+8	20
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	9	+11	18
6	NEOM	10	+5	16
7	Al Diriyah	10	0	15
8	Al-Ettifaq	10	−2	15
9	Al Kholood	9	−4	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	10	−4	12
11	Al Shabab	10	0	11
12	Al-Hazm	11	−4	10
13	Al Riyadh	9	−9	9
14	Al-Fayha	11	−7	8
15	Al-Faisaly FC	9	−7	7
16	Al-Fateh	11	−13	6
17	Al Taawon	10	−13	4
18	Abha	8	−9	2