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Al-Ettifaq v Al Khaleej Saihat

Al-Ettifaq

1–1Full time

Al Khaleej Saihat

Pro League · SAT 10 OCT · Al Ettifaq Club Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Al-Ettifaq 1–1 Al Khaleej Saihat AL-ETTIFAQ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Al-Ettifaq win~~48%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.855

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.827

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Ettifaq win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al-Ettifaq was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
1′KICK-OFF Al-Ettifaq v Al Khaleej Saihat
11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Abdoulaye Kanté · Al-Ettifaq
13′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Saleh Al Amri · Al Khaleej Saihat
24′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Abdoulaye Kanté · Al-Ettifaq
24′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Saleh Al Amri · Al Khaleej Saihat
30′SUBSTITUTION · 30' Al Khaleej Saihat · On: Sultan Al-Dossari · Off: Miguel Crespo da Silva Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al Khaleej Saihat · On: Joshua King · Off: Mateo Benegas Corrected
45′SECOND HALF Al-Ettifaq 0–0 Al Khaleej Saihat
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al Khaleej Saihat · On: Marwan Al-Haidari · Off: Anthony Moris Corrected
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Omar Mascarell · Al Khaleej Saihat
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Al Khaleej Saihat · On: Musa Barrow · Off: Saleh Al Amri Corrected
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Al-Ettifaq 0–1 Al Khaleej Saihat
67′⚽ GOAL · 68' Al-Ettifaq 0–1 Al Khaleej Saihat · Joshua King
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Al-Ettifaq · On: Saud Haroun · Off: Moussa Dembélé Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Al-Ettifaq · On: Meshal Al-Aeli · Off: Madallah Al-Olayan Corrected
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Al-Ettifaq 1–1 Al Khaleej Saihat · Joshua King
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Al-Ettifaq 1–1 Al Khaleej Saihat · Bersant Celina
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Al-Ettifaq · On: Marzouq Tambakti · Off: Radhi Al Oteibi Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Al Khaleej Saihat · On: Thamer Al-Khaibri · Off: Nawaf Al-Sadi Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Al-Ettifaq · On: Yasir Al-Shammari · Off: Khalid Al-Ghannam Corrected
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Al-Ettifaq 1–1 Al Khaleej Saihat · Jordan Larsson
87′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Abdullah Al-Khateeb · Al-Ettifaq
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Saud Haroun · Al-Ettifaq
89′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Miguel Crespo da Silva · Al Khaleej Saihat
89′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Majed Omar Kanabah · Al Khaleej Saihat
FTFULL TIME Al-Ettifaq 1–1 Al Khaleej Saihat
FTAl-Ettifaq 1–1 Al Khaleej Saihat · Al-Ettifaq win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Al-Ettifaq win48%

Draw26%

Al Khaleej Saihat win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:55

Venue · Al Ettifaq Club Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Al-Ettifaq

4-3-3

1 M. Rodak

61 R. Al Otaibi

5 Pedro Henrique

70 A. A. Khateeb

33 M. Al Olayan

10 A. Medran

42 A. Kante

43 B. Celina

17 J. Larsson

9 M. Dembele

7 K. Al Ghannam

Coach · Arthur Papas

Substitutes

92 · T. Ba Al Jawsh

13 · M. Al Alaeli

78 · M. H. Tambakti

3 · A. Madu

26 · R. Sharahili

77 · A. Hawsawi

58 · Y. Al Shammari

71 · M. Gluscevic

99 · S. Harun

Al Khaleej Saihat

4-4-2

49 A. Moris

27 F. Al Saqour

4 K. Kouyate

3 M. Al Khabrani

5 P. Rebocho

18 N. Al Saadi

8 O. Mascarell

12 M. Kanabah

11 S. Al Amri

9 M. Benegas

19 M. Crespo

Coach · Jose Gomes

Substitutes

96 · M. Al Haidari

13 · A. Asiri

39 · S. Al Hamsal

17 · A. Al Hafith

14 · A. Al Shaafi

99 · M. Barrow

97 · F. Al Rashidi

7 · J. King

90 · T. Al Khaibri

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Ettifaq

4-3-3

1 M. Rodak

61 R. Al Otaibi

5 Pedro Henrique

70 A. A. Khateeb

33 M. Al Olayan

10 A. Medran

42 A. Kante

43 B. Celina

17 J. Larsson

9 M. Dembele

7 K. Al Ghannam

Coach · Arthur Papas

Substitutes

92 · T. Ba Al Jawsh

13 · M. Al Alaeli

78 · M. H. Tambakti

3 · A. Madu

26 · R. Sharahili

77 · A. Hawsawi

58 · Y. Al Shammari

71 · M. Gluscevic

99 · S. Harun

Al Khaleej Saihat

4-4-2

49 A. Moris

27 F. Al Saqour

4 K. Kouyate

3 M. Al Khabrani

5 P. Rebocho

18 N. Al Saadi

8 O. Mascarell

12 M. Kanabah

11 S. Al Amri

9 M. Benegas

19 M. Crespo

Coach · Jose Gomes

Substitutes

96 · M. Al Haidari

13 · A. Asiri

39 · S. Al Hamsal

17 · A. Al Hafith

14 · A. Al Shaafi

99 · M. Barrow

97 · F. Al Rashidi

7 · J. King

90 · T. Al Khaibri

Our number · al-ettifaq winPublished 10 Oct 15:43

48% The market42%

Us48%

~~Market~~42%

We make Al-Ettifaq a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al-ettifaq win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Ettifaq win	48%	42%	+6
Draw	26%	26%	0
Al Khaleej Saihat win	26%	32%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	52%	58%	−5
Both teams to score	55%	61%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	37%	−7
Al-Ettifaq or draw	74%	68%	+6
Al-Ettifaq clean sheet	32%	–	–
Al Khaleej Saihat clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.0 6.5 4.1 1 9.6 12.1 6.5 2.5 2 8.3 9.3 5.3 2.0 3 4.6 5.1 2.9 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Ettifaq down, Al Khaleej Saihat across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,464 Pro League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.1% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Khaleej Saihat away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Al-Ettifaq, 1.14 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:35. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ALK 0–5 ALE · ALE 1–2 ALK · ALE 2–1 ALK · ALK 1–2 ALE

Form · last six in Pro League

AL-ETTIFAQ

WLLWDD1–0 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–3

AL KHALEEJ SAIHAT

DDLLDD0–0 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Qadisiyah FC	8	+13	19
2	Al-Nassr	8	+12	19
3	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	7	+18	18
4	Al-Ittihad FC	7	+6	17
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	8	+10	15
6	NEOM	7	+7	15
7	Al Kholood	8	−3	12
8	Al-Ettifaq	7	0	11
9	Al Diriyah	8	−1	11
10	Al-Hazm	7	−2	8
11	Al Riyadh	7	−8	8
12	Al-Fayha	7	−4	6
13	Al Khaleej Saihat	7	−7	5
14	Al Shabab	7	−5	4
15	Al-Faisaly FC	7	−8	3
16	Al Taawon	7	−9	3
17	Al-Fateh	8	−11	3
18	Abha	7	−8	2