Al Diriyah v NEOM prediction · Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al DiriyahDrawNEOM

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:50

Before kick-off · Match result · NEOM 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with NEOM just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Diriyah 34%, draw 30%, NEOM 37%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Al Diriyah v NEOMBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Al Diriyah win34%

Draw30%

NEOM win37%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 14:50

RoundMatchday 12

VenuePrince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Diriyah

NEOM

7Days since last match6

Last match: 23 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 24 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	NEOM	11	+7	19
8	Al Diriyah	11	−2	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · neom winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:23 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make NEOM a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Diriyah v NEOM~~1.09 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 7 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 19~~8 v 6

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · NEOM win

Published at 36%, 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Diriyah win	34%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
NEOM win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Al Diriyah or draw	63%	–	–
Al Diriyah clean sheet	32%	–	–
NEOM clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 11.5 11.6 7.0 2.8 1 10.9 13.7 7.5 2.9 2 6.3 7.1 4.1 3 2.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Diriyah down, NEOM across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,492 Pro League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Al Diriyah at home: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). NEOM away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Al Diriyah, 1.16 for NEOM. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 7 Sept

AL DIRIYAH

WDLDWL2–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2

NEOM

WWDLLW2–0 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	10	+21	27
2	Al-Nassr	10	+15	25
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	11	+14	25
4	Al-Ittihad FC	10	+10	23
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	10	+14	21
6	NEOM	11	+7	19
7	Al-Ettifaq	11	+1	18
8	Al Diriyah	11	−2	15
9	Al Kholood	10	−7	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	11	−7	12
11	Al Riyadh	10	−8	12
12	Al Shabab	10	0	11
13	Al-Hazm	11	−4	10
14	Al-Fayha	11	−7	8
15	Al-Faisaly FC	10	−9	7
16	Al-Fateh	11	−13	6
17	Al Taawon	11	−14	4
18	Abha	9	−11	2