Al Diriyah v Al Riyadh prediction · Pro League

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 18:31

Al Diriyah 1–0 Al Riyadh AL DIRIYAH WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Diriyah win~~48%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.410

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.319

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Diriyah win at 48%.
1′KICK-OFF Al Diriyah v Al Riyadh
2′Much as we predicted: Al Diriyah was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–28–25
5′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Sultan Al-Essa · Al Riyadh
14′We published Al Diriyah at 48%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–16–8
14′Al Diriyah ahead on 13′ through Óscar Rodríguez. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–16–8
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Al Diriyah 1–0 Al Riyadh
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Al Diriyah win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–7
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Al Diriyah win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
45′HALF-TIME Al Diriyah 1–0 Al Riyadh
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al Diriyah · On: Abdulaziz Al Faraj · Off: Hussain Al-Sabiyani
46′SECOND HALF Al Diriyah 1–0 Al Riyadh
53′We published Al Diriyah at 48%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Teddy Okou · Al Riyadh
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Al Riyadh · On: Hussain Al Shurafa · Off: Sultan Al-Essa
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Al Riyadh · On: Awad Dahal · Off: Hassan Hashim Al-Ali
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Lovro Chelfi · Al Diriyah
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Enzo Millot · Al Diriyah
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Al Diriyah · On: Adil Boulbina · Off: Lovro Chelfi
69′We published Al Diriyah at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Al Diriyah win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Hussam Majrashi · Al Riyadh
78′We published Al Diriyah at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Al Diriyah · On: Meshari Fahad Al Nemer · Off: Darwin Nuñez
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Al Diriyah · On: Sultan Al-Farhan · Off: Abdulelah Al-Malki
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Al Riyadh · On: Hussain Al-Raqwani · Off: Hussam Majrashi
85′We published Al Diriyah at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Al Riyadh · On: Essam Hassan Abdullah Bahri · Off: Hussain Qasim
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Al Diriyah · On: Khalid Al-Asiri · Off: Clayton diandy
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Al Diriyah win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Sultan Al-Farhan · Al Diriyah
FTFULL TIME Al Diriyah 1–0 Al Riyadh
FTAl Diriyah 1–0 Al Riyadh · Al Diriyah win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Diriyah are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Diriyah 48%, draw 27%, Al Riyadh 25%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Al Diriyah v Al RiyadhBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Al Diriyah win48%

Draw27%

Al Riyadh win25%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenuePrince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Line-ups

Al Diriyah

4-3-3

Al Riyadh

4-4-1-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Diriyah

Al Riyadh

3Days since last match9

Last match: 17 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 11 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Al Diriyah	9	−1	12
12	Al Riyadh	8	−8	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Diriyah

4-3-3

97 Amin Al Bukhari

12 T. Wadi

19 B. Djimsiti

99 C. Mbemba

16 Hussain Al Sibyani

14 Óscar Rodríguez

88 Abdulelah Al Malki

20 E. Millot

25 L. Chelfi

29 D. Núñez

17 C. Diandy

Coach · Bruno Lage

Substitutes

75 · Meshari Al Nemer

2 · Abdulaziz Al Faraj

78 · Khalid Al Asiri

52 · Hussain Al Qahtani

34 · Mansour Hibatullah Al Sibyani

10 · A. Boulbina

21 · M. Hameran

87 · Qassem Lajami

6 · Sultan Al Farhan

Al Riyadh

4-4-1-1

82 M. Borjan

2 Sultan Alessa

5 Hossam Majrashi

26 R. Abascal

23 Hussain Qasim

10 T. Okou

22 V. Lekhal

6 K. Keita

11 H. Al Ali

43 B. Mensah

7 Trézéguet

Coach · Maurício Dulac

Substitutes

17 · Hussain Al-Raqwani

19 · A. M. Al Harthi

14 · Essam Bahri

12 · Sulaiman Hazazi

32 · Awad Dahal

28 · J. Petek

79 · F. Al Jayzani

13 · Osama Al Bowardi

76 · Ahmed Al Anazi

Our number · al diriyah winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

48% The market54%

Us48%

~~Market~~54%

We make Al Diriyah a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Diriyah v Al Riyadh~~1.49 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 25 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 9~~8 v 12

~~The market · Al Diriyah win~~54% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Diriyah win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Diriyah win	48%	54%	−6
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Al Riyadh win	25%	21%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	45%	52%	−7
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	71%	75%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	24%	31%	−7
Al Diriyah or draw	75%	79%	−4
Al Diriyah clean sheet	37%	–	–
Al Riyadh clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.3 7.7 4.2 1 11.7 12.8 6.0 2.1 2 9.2 8.9 4.5 3 4.6 4.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Diriyah down, Al Riyadh across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,479 Pro League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Al Diriyah at home: 0.40 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 5). Al Riyadh away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Al Diriyah, 1.00 for Al Riyadh. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 20 Oct 15:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 25 Aug

AL DIRIYAH

WLWDLD3–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–1

AL RIYADH

DWLDWD3–3 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	9	+20	24
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	9	+14	22
3	Al-Nassr	8	+12	19
4	Al-Ahli Jeddah	9	+11	18
5	Al-Ittihad FC	8	+5	17
6	NEOM	9	+6	16
7	Al-Ettifaq	9	+1	15
8	Al Diriyah	9	−1	12
9	Al Kholood	9	−4	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	10	−4	12
11	Al-Hazm	10	−4	9
12	Al Riyadh	8	−8	9
13	Al Shabab	9	−2	8
14	Al-Faisaly FC	9	−7	7
15	Al-Fayha	10	−7	7
16	Al-Fateh	10	−11	6
17	Al Taawon	9	−12	4
18	Abha	8	−9	2